UPDATED: Labor predicted to form government; Pocock and Zed neck and neck in race for second ACT senate seat

UPDATED 10 pm: As Labor Leader Anthony Albanese looks certain to become Australia’s 31st Prime Minister, the remaining spot for the ACT Senate remains open.

Most major election analysts have now confirmed there will be a change in government but it is unclear whether Labor will form a majority or minority government.

Locally, the race between Liberal incumbent Zed Seselja and independent David Pocock is neck and neck and it is likely it will now be determined on preference flows.

According to its how-to-vote card, Labor encouraged voters to preference Mr Pocock second while The Greens suggested he be preferenced third.

Senator Seselja has, as of last count, moved ahead of Mr Pocock, returning 23 per cent of the vote compared with 22.3 per cent to the independent.

A total of 27 per cent of the votes have now been counted in that particular race.

Mr Pocock, who is hosting a large election night party at QT Canberra, told Region Media earlier this evening he hoped the success of independent candidates across the country would demonstrate a need for change in “how politics is being done” in Australia.

“I think you’re seeing people being sick of being taken for granted, sick of the big issues being politicised by both sides of politics,” he said.

Region Media – along with other local media – was asked to leave Senator Seselja’s election night party.

The remaining seat in the ACT’s surrounding region – the NSW South Coast seat of Gilmore – has yet to be called but the Liberals’ Andrew Constance is projected to win the seat with 50.8 per cent of the vote.

UPDATED 8:45 pm: Labor incumbent Katy Gallagher has been re-elected to the Senate along with all other Labor lower house candidates in the ACT as the national count shows a swing away from the major parties.

With 5.9 per cent of the vote counted, the ALP has won one Senate seat with 33.9 per cent of the vote.

Behind Labor is David Pocock with 22.7 per cent of the vote, followed by the Liberals’ Zed Seselja on 20 per cent and The Greens on 11.2 per cent.

If elected, the former rugby great would be the first ACT Senator from a minor party.

Speaking to Region Media‘s Genevieve Jacobs, Member for Fenner Andrew Leigh said he was “feeling more optimistic than he was three years ago” about Labor forming government.

However, with votes for independents surging around the country, Mr Leigh said he couldn’t be confident until the final result was in.

“I know the change the country needs and the change Canberra needs … to have a government which actually believes in Territory rights rather than stomping down on the democratic rights of Territorians and one that would give Canberra their fair share of infrastructure spending,” he explained.

More to come.

UPDATED 8 pm: All three incumbent Labor members of the House of Representatives in the ACT have retained their seats.

Member for Canberra Alicia Payne has been re-elected with 14.2 per cent of the vote counted. She returned an 8.8 per cent swing to the ALP. Member for Fenner Andrew Leigh has also retained his seat with 13.5 per cent of the vote counted on a swing of 5.1 per cent.

In Bean, Labor incumbent David Smith has also been returned with a swing of 2.5 per cent to the ALP after 14 per cent of the vote has been counted.

Labor’s Kristy McBain has also retained the seat of Eden-Monaro with 10.3 per cent of the vote counted and a 6.7 per cent swing to the ALP.

Liberal incumbent and Minister for Energy Angus Taylor has held Hume with 21.3 per cent of the vote counted. There was, however, a 5.7 per cent swing to the ALP.

With 15 per cent of the vote counted in the NSW seat of Riverina, the former Nationals’ Leader Michael McCormack has been re-elected.

In Gilmore, the Liberal candidate Andrew Constance is ahead but the seat is too close to call at this stage.

More to come.

7:15 pm: The polls have now officially closed in the Eastern states and the counting has begun for the 2022 Federal Election.

A record 5.4 million people pre-polled this year around the country and the majority of these, alongside all votes cast today, will be counted this evening.

All counting will cease at midnight.

Stay tuned for the latest updates for what’s likely to be a hotly contested race for the ACT Senate.

The Liberal and Labor incumbents Senator Zed Seselja and Senator Katy Gallagher both found themselves under pressure this year from high-profile independent candidate David Pocock, as well as the minor parties like The Greens.

Mr Pocock, alongside independent Kim Rubenstein, is one of the independents who has received backing from Climate 200.

The Labor-held seats of Canberra, Bean and Fenner within the ACT are held by Alicia Payne, David Smith and Andrew Leigh with margins of 17 per cent, 7.5 per cent and 10.6 per cent.

As Norfolk Island sits within the ACT electorate of Bean, some votes were available prior to 6 pm EST which showed a swing to independent Jamie Christie but no trend can be read into this.

With 0.3 per cent of the vote in Bean counted, the ALP was leading 60.9 per cent to the Liberals’ 39.1 per cent.

In Fenner, with 0.4 per cent of the vote counted, the ALP was also leading 64.3 per cent to the Liberals’ 35.7 per cent.

Over the border in NSW, the race is on in the seat of Gilmore on the NSW South Coast – the only seat gained by Labor in the 2019 election. Fiona Phillips holds it on a margin of 2.6 per cent. She is now up against the new Liberal candidate Andrew Constance who was formerly the member for the state seat of Bega and the state’s transport minister.

With only 1.1 per cent of the vote counted, the Liberals are just ahead with 51.4 per cent compared to Labor’s 48.6 per cent.

Eden-Monaro, which includes Queanbeyan, is similarly close. It’s also currently held by the ALP’s Kristy McBain by a margin of only 0.8 per cent.

Likewise, it’s still too early to call with only 0.3 per cent of the vote counted, but Labor is leading 59.6 per cent to the Liberals’ 40.4 per cent.

To the north of the ACT, Hume is held by Liberal Angus Taylor with a margin of 13 per cent. Mr Taylor is also the Minister for Industry, Energy and Emissions Reduction.

Mr Taylor is leading 62.4 per cent against the ALP’s Greg Baines with 37.6 per cent.

The seat of the Riverina is currently held by The Nationals Michael McCormack. With only 3.7 per cent of the vote counted, he’s leading 77.1 per cent to the ALP’s Mark Jefferson’s 22.9 per cent.

More to come.