12,000 Commonwealth jobs to go under Abbott

dungfungus said :

Jim Jones said :

dungfungus said :

justin heywood said :

Amusing to see the contortions the True Believers will put themselves through to maintain their delusion. A budget surplus this year has been an iron-clad article of faith, regularly trotted out as proof of this government’s good economic management.

But now that promise has evaporated into the wind like so many others, it turns out that we don’t need to run surpluses anyway – in fact deficits can be a good thing! Hilarious.

Yes, I wonder how some of the “deficits are good” lobby run their own household budgets and what plans would they implement if they were running the country to repay government debt of nearly $300 billion over the next 10 years while servicing the interest costs concurrently?

Let me get this straight: you say you have a ‘background in finance and investment’, but you ‘don’t trust that share-market thingo’, you distrust ‘academic authors’ in the field of economics, and you think the budget of a country is similar to a household budget.

I honestly can’t tell if you’re either lying or just incredbly stupid. Lord help anyone who takes investment advice from someone with a track record like this. There should probably be a charity to help them out.

Your arguments against the loss of 12,000 jobs in the city you live in is ‘toughen up … lots of Australians hate public servants’, and your response against any argument that the Australian economy is strong is: ‘labor are bad’ ‘rah rah Juliar rah rah’, and you appear to be convinced that we’re on track to rack and ruin ‘just like Europe’.

On this, there’s no debate. It’s flat out stupidity.

You mentioned Europe. Have you ever been there? I was in France in March and the economy is a mess. The news about France that you don’t hear about in Australia is that the socialist government with is “75% tax on the wealthy” policy has driven not only the actor Gerard Deapardue out of their country but also hundreds of businessmen who have shut their factories in France and sacked 600,000 workers. Renault now make their cars in Turkey!
But all is good in France because same-sex marriage is now legal. “A great victory for socialism” one of their ministers said yesterday.
It is all academic because 80% of primary school children in France are Muslim and when they start to vote in 10 years time the same-sex people will start leaving like the wealthy are doing now. Yes, I believe we are on the same track as Europe.

As opinions on this blog rely heavily of referrals to internet articles, try this one and note the comment from a France 2 documetary about the actual amount of halal meat delivered in France.
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/3523/islamization-of-france

JC said :

Darkfalz said :

cranky said :

As a (very) small businessman, I contend that Abbott’s continual negativity since the last election has had a massive draining effect on ACT business confidence.

Yes, it’s all Abbott Abbott Abbott’s fault. You’d think this guy was running the country for the last 6 years…

Business confidence is about the future not the past, so who is running the country and what they have done is irrelevant. Who may be running the country and what they may well do does directly effect business confidence.

Are you saying that if Labor win the election and Abbott and his “perceived-by-some-
negativity” disappears there will be a surge in business confidence?

rosscoact said :

Sorry about that. You might be better reading this one
http://www.dailylife.com.au/news-and-views/dl-opinion/why-australia-hates-thinkers-20130513-2jhis.html

🙂

I’ve read it and found it interesting – she makes some good points. I’ll give you my full comments soon.

dungfungus said :

…
It is all academic because 80% of primary school children in France are Muslim and when they start to vote in 10 years time the same-sex people will start leaving like the wealthy are doing now. Yes, I believe we are on the same track as Europe.

Sacre bleu! There goes the wine industry… 🙂

bundah said :

dungfungus said :

Jim Jones said :

dungfungus said :

justin heywood said :

Amusing to see the contortions the True Believers will put themselves through to maintain their delusion. A budget surplus this year has been an iron-clad article of faith, regularly trotted out as proof of this government’s good economic management.

But now that promise has evaporated into the wind like so many others, it turns out that we don’t need to run surpluses anyway – in fact deficits can be a good thing! Hilarious.

Yes, I wonder how some of the “deficits are good” lobby run their own household budgets and what plans would they implement if they were running the country to repay government debt of nearly $300 billion over the next 10 years while servicing the interest costs concurrently?

Let me get this straight: you say you have a ‘background in finance and investment’, but you ‘don’t trust that share-market thingo’, you distrust ‘academic authors’ in the field of economics, and you think the budget of a country is similar to a household budget.

I honestly can’t tell if you’re either lying or just incredbly stupid. Lord help anyone who takes investment advice from someone with a track record like this. There should probably be a charity to help them out.

Your arguments against the loss of 12,000 jobs in the city you live in is ‘toughen up … lots of Australians hate public servants’, and your response against any argument that the Australian economy is strong is: ‘labor are bad’ ‘rah rah Juliar rah rah’, and you appear to be convinced that we’re on track to rack and ruin ‘just like Europe’.

On this, there’s no debate. It’s flat out stupidity.

You mentioned Europe. Have you ever been there? I was in France in March and the economy is a mess. The news about France that you don’t hear about in Australia is that the socialist government with is “75% tax on the wealthy” policy has driven not only the actor Gerard Deapardue out of their country but also hundreds of businessmen who have shut their factories in France and sacked 600,000 workers. Renault now make their cars in Turkey!
But all is good in France because same-sex marriage is now legal. “A great victory for socialism” one of their ministers said yesterday.
It is all academic because 80% of primary school children in France are Muslim and when they start to vote in 10 years time the same-sex people will start leaving like the wealthy are doing now. Yes, I believe we are on the same track as Europe.

Just to correct your assertion that 80% of primary school children in France are muslim:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/30/world/europe/30schools.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

The reality is France’s population is approx 65 million of which 5 million are muslim so it’s literally quite impossible for 80% of primary school kiddies to be muslims.

You haven’t corrected my assertion at all. I could counter the NY times report by quoting from the Population Reference Bureau in Washington USA who say “Concerns about the rapid growth of Muslims are based on popular perceptions, not statistical evidence. Because many European countries do not ask a person’s religion on official forms or in censuses, it has been difficult to obtain accurate estimates of the number or childbearing rates of Muslims. Nevertheless, it seems clear that Muslims are far from achieving majority status. Muslims make up less than 5 percent of the population in most European countries. France has the largest Muslim population in Western Europe. An estimated 4 million to 6 million Muslims make up between 6 percent and 10 percent of the French population” This information is 5 years old and the salient point is that because of political correctness corrupting the requirement to give factual personal details to government agencies, the true statistics will never been known . Given that most Muslim women have a miniumum of 5 children and the birth rate in Europe was falling before the large scale migration from Muslims countries intensified the figures available on the internet are not reliable.
You obviously didn’t read my earlier comment that I had been to France in March and I got the 80% figure at “the coal face”. Call me stupid or a liar or instead get away from your computer screen, get on a plane and go to Europe yourself.

bundah said :

Just to correct your assertion that 80% of primary school children in France are muslim:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/30/world/europe/30schools.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

The reality is France’s population is approx 65 million of which 5 million are muslim so it’s literally quite impossible for 80% of primary school kiddies to be muslims.

Shhh, don’t get in the way of a good old fashioned geezer rant. Sometimes that’s all they’ve got to keep them going!

“Back in my day, etc etc etc… The world is going to rack and ruin, and that’s a fact!”

Hahaha! 🙂

bundah said :

dungfungus said :

Jim Jones said :

dungfungus said :

justin heywood said :

Amusing to see the contortions the True Believers will put themselves through to maintain their delusion. A budget surplus this year has been an iron-clad article of faith, regularly trotted out as proof of this government’s good economic management.

But now that promise has evaporated into the wind like so many others, it turns out that we don’t need to run surpluses anyway – in fact deficits can be a good thing! Hilarious.

Yes, I wonder how some of the “deficits are good” lobby run their own household budgets and what plans would they implement if they were running the country to repay government debt of nearly $300 billion over the next 10 years while servicing the interest costs concurrently?

Let me get this straight: you say you have a ‘background in finance and investment’, but you ‘don’t trust that share-market thingo’, you distrust ‘academic authors’ in the field of economics, and you think the budget of a country is similar to a household budget.

I honestly can’t tell if you’re either lying or just incredbly stupid. Lord help anyone who takes investment advice from someone with a track record like this. There should probably be a charity to help them out.

Your arguments against the loss of 12,000 jobs in the city you live in is ‘toughen up … lots of Australians hate public servants’, and your response against any argument that the Australian economy is strong is: ‘labor are bad’ ‘rah rah Juliar rah rah’, and you appear to be convinced that we’re on track to rack and ruin ‘just like Europe’.

On this, there’s no debate. It’s flat out stupidity.

You mentioned Europe. Have you ever been there? I was in France in March and the economy is a mess. The news about France that you don’t hear about in Australia is that the socialist government with is “75% tax on the wealthy” policy has driven not only the actor Gerard Deapardue out of their country but also hundreds of businessmen who have shut their factories in France and sacked 600,000 workers. Renault now make their cars in Turkey!
But all is good in France because same-sex marriage is now legal. “A great victory for socialism” one of their ministers said yesterday.
It is all academic because 80% of primary school children in France are Muslim and when they start to vote in 10 years time the same-sex people will start leaving like the wealthy are doing now. Yes, I believe we are on the same track as Europe.

Just to correct your assertion that 80% of primary school children in France are muslim:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/30/world/europe/30schools.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

The reality is France’s population is approx 65 million of which 5 million are muslim so it’s literally quite impossible for 80% of primary school kiddies to be muslims.

Typical Alan jones listening right wing halfwit. Hear a soundbite from some ignorant moron and take it as fact instead of checking sources.

But bunduh, your sources maths must be wrong, because bolt said so.

Dungfungas, using such ridiculous claims now means inless you back everything up with fact and sources to those facts, can know be 100% ignored from now on.

JC said :

Darkfalz said :

cranky said :

As a (very) small businessman, I contend that Abbott’s continual negativity since the last election has had a massive draining effect on ACT business confidence.

Yes, it’s all Abbott Abbott Abbott’s fault. You’d think this guy was running the country for the last 6 years…

Business confidence is about the future not the past, so who is running the country and what they have done is irrelevant. Who may be running the country and what they may well do does directly effect business confidence.

Just to clarify JC, are you saying that business confidence in this country is down because they fear an Abbott government?

The thing public servants need to realise is their jobs – in most cases – are not necessary. Every PS job should be considered temporary.

Australians – in most cases – are far better at administrating their own lives than any beauracrat will ever be.

dungfungus said :

rosscoact said :

dungfungus said :

justin heywood said :

Amusing to see the contortions the True Believers will put themselves through to maintain their delusion. A budget surplus this year has been an iron-clad article of faith, regularly trotted out as proof of this government’s good economic management.

But now that promise has evaporated into the wind like so many others, it turns out that we don’t need to run surpluses anyway – in fact deficits can be a good thing! Hilarious.

Yes, I wonder how some of the “deficits are good” lobby run their own household budgets and what plans would they implement if they were running the country to repay government debt of nearly $300 billion over the next 10 years while servicing the interest costs concurrently?

😀 😀 😀

So managing the budget of a country is just like running a household only bigger?

😀 😀 😀

Read up on Argentina’s economic history. Several academics have written accounts of what might happen here if we don’t learn the lessons.

So, let me get this straight.

You’re suggesting that either the current or alternative government is going to introduce trade restrictions and protectionism, peg then overvalue the dollar, increase the cost of living while reducing real wages, have the state offer protection to inefficient industries to create an environment which emulates and indeed largely contributed to the the pre-expanding deficit era of Argentina?

I think you might find that the Hawke Keating governments implemented most of the reforms that prevented that from affecting Australia in the same way.

If not, then the comparison with Australia and Argentina is totally invalid except at the most vapid and facile way.

Darkfalz said :

cranky said :

As a (very) small businessman, I contend that Abbott’s continual negativity since the last election has had a massive draining effect on ACT business confidence.

Yes, it’s all Abbott Abbott Abbott’s fault. You’d think this guy was running the country for the last 6 years…

+1. A typical whingey bandwagon.

dungfungus said :

rosscoact said :

dungfungus said :

justin heywood said :

Amusing to see the contortions the True Believers will put themselves through to maintain their delusion. A budget surplus this year has been an iron-clad article of faith, regularly trotted out as proof of this government’s good economic management.

But now that promise has evaporated into the wind like so many others, it turns out that we don’t need to run surpluses anyway – in fact deficits can be a good thing! Hilarious.

Yes, I wonder how some of the “deficits are good” lobby run their own household budgets and what plans would they implement if they were running the country to repay government debt of nearly $300 billion over the next 10 years while servicing the interest costs concurrently?

😀 😀 😀

So managing the budget of a country is just like running a household only bigger?

😀 😀 😀

Read up on Argentina’s economic history. Several academics have written accounts of what might happen here if we don’t learn the lessons.

I thought you hated academics?

Or do you only hate the ones that don’t believe that “managing the budget of a country is just like running a household ” BWA AHAHA HA HAH AHAHA HA HA HAHA AH

bundah said :

The reality is France’s population is approx 65 million of which 5 million are muslim so it’s literally quite impossible for 80% of primary school kiddies to be muslims.

Yes, but I think you’ll find the point he was actually making was “The French are all evil communists and the terrorists and poofs are gonna take over and destroy civilization.”

Darkfalz said :

cranky said :

As a (very) small businessman, I contend that Abbott’s continual negativity since the last election has had a massive draining effect on ACT business confidence.

Yes, it’s all Abbott Abbott Abbott’s fault. You’d think this guy was running the country for the last 6 years…

Business confidence is about the future not the past, so who is running the country and what they have done is irrelevant. Who may be running the country and what they may well do does directly effect business confidence.

dungfungus said :

Jim Jones said :

dungfungus said :

justin heywood said :

Amusing to see the contortions the True Believers will put themselves through to maintain their delusion. A budget surplus this year has been an iron-clad article of faith, regularly trotted out as proof of this government’s good economic management.

But now that promise has evaporated into the wind like so many others, it turns out that we don’t need to run surpluses anyway – in fact deficits can be a good thing! Hilarious.

Yes, I wonder how some of the “deficits are good” lobby run their own household budgets and what plans would they implement if they were running the country to repay government debt of nearly $300 billion over the next 10 years while servicing the interest costs concurrently?

Let me get this straight: you say you have a ‘background in finance and investment’, but you ‘don’t trust that share-market thingo’, you distrust ‘academic authors’ in the field of economics, and you think the budget of a country is similar to a household budget.

I honestly can’t tell if you’re either lying or just incredbly stupid. Lord help anyone who takes investment advice from someone with a track record like this. There should probably be a charity to help them out.

Your arguments against the loss of 12,000 jobs in the city you live in is ‘toughen up … lots of Australians hate public servants’, and your response against any argument that the Australian economy is strong is: ‘labor are bad’ ‘rah rah Juliar rah rah’, and you appear to be convinced that we’re on track to rack and ruin ‘just like Europe’.

On this, there’s no debate. It’s flat out stupidity.

You mentioned Europe. Have you ever been there? I was in France in March and the economy is a mess. The news about France that you don’t hear about in Australia is that the socialist government with is “75% tax on the wealthy” policy has driven not only the actor Gerard Deapardue out of their country but also hundreds of businessmen who have shut their factories in France and sacked 600,000 workers. Renault now make their cars in Turkey!
But all is good in France because same-sex marriage is now legal. “A great victory for socialism” one of their ministers said yesterday.
It is all academic because 80% of primary school children in France are Muslim and when they start to vote in 10 years time the same-sex people will start leaving like the wealthy are doing now. Yes, I believe we are on the same track as Europe.

Just to correct your assertion that 80% of primary school children in France are muslim:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/30/world/europe/30schools.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

The reality is France’s population is approx 65 million of which 5 million are muslim so it’s literally quite impossible for 80% of primary school kiddies to be muslims.

rosscoact said :

dungfungus said :

justin heywood said :

Amusing to see the contortions the True Believers will put themselves through to maintain their delusion. A budget surplus this year has been an iron-clad article of faith, regularly trotted out as proof of this government’s good economic management.

But now that promise has evaporated into the wind like so many others, it turns out that we don’t need to run surpluses anyway – in fact deficits can be a good thing! Hilarious.

Yes, I wonder how some of the “deficits are good” lobby run their own household budgets and what plans would they implement if they were running the country to repay government debt of nearly $300 billion over the next 10 years while servicing the interest costs concurrently?

😀 😀 😀

So managing the budget of a country is just like running a household only bigger?

😀 😀 😀

Read up on Argentina’s economic history. Several academics have written accounts of what might happen here if we don’t learn the lessons.

Jim Jones said :

dungfungus said :

justin heywood said :

Amusing to see the contortions the True Believers will put themselves through to maintain their delusion. A budget surplus this year has been an iron-clad article of faith, regularly trotted out as proof of this government’s good economic management.

But now that promise has evaporated into the wind like so many others, it turns out that we don’t need to run surpluses anyway – in fact deficits can be a good thing! Hilarious.

Yes, I wonder how some of the “deficits are good” lobby run their own household budgets and what plans would they implement if they were running the country to repay government debt of nearly $300 billion over the next 10 years while servicing the interest costs concurrently?

Let me get this straight: you say you have a ‘background in finance and investment’, but you ‘don’t trust that share-market thingo’, you distrust ‘academic authors’ in the field of economics, and you think the budget of a country is similar to a household budget.

I honestly can’t tell if you’re either lying or just incredbly stupid. Lord help anyone who takes investment advice from someone with a track record like this. There should probably be a charity to help them out.

Your arguments against the loss of 12,000 jobs in the city you live in is ‘toughen up … lots of Australians hate public servants’, and your response against any argument that the Australian economy is strong is: ‘labor are bad’ ‘rah rah Juliar rah rah’, and you appear to be convinced that we’re on track to rack and ruin ‘just like Europe’.

On this, there’s no debate. It’s flat out stupidity.

You mentioned Europe. Have you ever been there? I was in France in March and the economy is a mess. The news about France that you don’t hear about in Australia is that the socialist government with is “75% tax on the wealthy” policy has driven not only the actor Gerard Deapardue out of their country but also hundreds of businessmen who have shut their factories in France and sacked 600,000 workers. Renault now make their cars in Turkey!
But all is good in France because same-sex marriage is now legal. “A great victory for socialism” one of their ministers said yesterday.
It is all academic because 80% of primary school children in France are Muslim and when they start to vote in 10 years time the same-sex people will start leaving like the wealthy are doing now. Yes, I believe we are on the same track as Europe.

cranky said :

As a (very) small businessman, I contend that Abbott’s continual negativity since the last election has had a massive draining effect on ACT business confidence.

Yes, it’s all Abbott Abbott Abbott’s fault. You’d think this guy was running the country for the last 6 years…

Tetranitrate said :

justin heywood said :

Amusing to see the contortions the True Believers will put themselves through to maintain their delusion. A budget surplus this year has been an iron-clad article of faith, regularly trotted out as proof of this government’s good economic management.

But now that promise has evaporated into the wind like so many others, it turns out that we don’t need to run surpluses anyway – in fact deficits can be a good thing! Hilarious.

I love the bit where you actually make a case for surpluses… oh right. you don’t.
I don’t care about the politics of it – it was never necessary in the first place.

And I kind of remember openly supporting the Liberals on here during the ACT election, which would tend to make me a pretty pathetic true believer.)

It was an observation, not an attack on your post particularly. Not only on this blog either – the ‘quality’ media (Fairfax, ABC) seems to have suddenly decided in the last few weeks that that deficits are quite a positive thing. I suspect that the same media would have been trumpeting a surplus if Swan had managed to achieve one.

Really just a comment on how one-eyed people can be.

Tetranitrate said :

justin heywood said :

Amusing to see the contortions the True Believers will put themselves through to maintain their delusion. A budget surplus this year has been an iron-clad article of faith, regularly trotted out as proof of this government’s good economic management.

But now that promise has evaporated into the wind like so many others, it turns out that we don’t need to run surpluses anyway – in fact deficits can be a good thing! Hilarious.

I love the bit where you actually make a case for surpluses… oh right. you don’t.
I don’t care about the politics of it – it was never necessary in the first place.

And I kind of remember openly supporting the Liberals on here during the ACT election, which would tend to make me a pretty pathetic true believer.)

It was an observation, not an attack on you specifically. The ‘quality press’ (i.e. Fairfax’) has had a lot of commentary on the

dungfungus said :

justin heywood said :

Amusing to see the contortions the True Believers will put themselves through to maintain their delusion. A budget surplus this year has been an iron-clad article of faith, regularly trotted out as proof of this government’s good economic management.

But now that promise has evaporated into the wind like so many others, it turns out that we don’t need to run surpluses anyway – in fact deficits can be a good thing! Hilarious.

Yes, I wonder how some of the “deficits are good” lobby run their own household budgets and what plans would they implement if they were running the country to repay government debt of nearly $300 billion over the next 10 years while servicing the interest costs concurrently?

Let me get this straight: you say you have a ‘background in finance and investment’, but you ‘don’t trust that share-market thingo’, you distrust ‘academic authors’ in the field of economics, and you think the budget of a country is similar to a household budget.

I honestly can’t tell if you’re either lying or just incredbly stupid. Lord help anyone who takes investment advice from someone with a track record like this. There should probably be a charity to help them out.

Your arguments against the loss of 12,000 jobs in the city you live in is ‘toughen up … lots of Australians hate public servants’, and your response against any argument that the Australian economy is strong is: ‘labor are bad’ ‘rah rah Juliar rah rah’, and you appear to be convinced that we’re on track to rack and ruin ‘just like Europe’.

On this, there’s no debate. It’s flat out stupidity.

dungfungus said :

justin heywood said :

Amusing to see the contortions the True Believers will put themselves through to maintain their delusion. A budget surplus this year has been an iron-clad article of faith, regularly trotted out as proof of this government’s good economic management.

But now that promise has evaporated into the wind like so many others, it turns out that we don’t need to run surpluses anyway – in fact deficits can be a good thing! Hilarious.

Yes, I wonder how some of the “deficits are good” lobby run their own household budgets and what plans would they implement if they were running the country to repay government debt of nearly $300 billion over the next 10 years while servicing the interest costs concurrently?

The government doesn’t ‘have to repay’ that debt with any sense of urgency, and your household comparison is hilarious – not only is a government not a household, but households in Australia typically carry way way more debt relative to their revenues than the government. I mean to run an average household the way the government is being run, you’d be carrying at most a 70k mortgage.
OUTRAGEOUS PROFLIGACY!

Anyway, households don’t have powers of taxation or captive reserve banks.

dungfungus said :

justin heywood said :

Amusing to see the contortions the True Believers will put themselves through to maintain their delusion. A budget surplus this year has been an iron-clad article of faith, regularly trotted out as proof of this government’s good economic management.

But now that promise has evaporated into the wind like so many others, it turns out that we don’t need to run surpluses anyway – in fact deficits can be a good thing! Hilarious.

Yes, I wonder how some of the “deficits are good” lobby run their own household budgets and what plans would they implement if they were running the country to repay government debt of nearly $300 billion over the next 10 years while servicing the interest costs concurrently?

😀 😀 😀

So managing the budget of a country is just like running a household only bigger?

😀 😀 😀

Natural attrition: is that where they all have a feed at Copa, and whoever is left standing a day or so later gets to keep their job?

justin heywood said :

Amusing to see the contortions the True Believers will put themselves through to maintain their delusion. A budget surplus this year has been an iron-clad article of faith, regularly trotted out as proof of this government’s good economic management.

But now that promise has evaporated into the wind like so many others, it turns out that we don’t need to run surpluses anyway – in fact deficits can be a good thing! Hilarious.

Yes, I wonder how some of the “deficits are good” lobby run their own household budgets and what plans would they implement if they were running the country to repay government debt of nearly $300 billion over the next 10 years while servicing the interest costs concurrently?

justin heywood said :

Amusing to see the contortions the True Believers will put themselves through to maintain their delusion. A budget surplus this year has been an iron-clad article of faith, regularly trotted out as proof of this government’s good economic management.

But now that promise has evaporated into the wind like so many others, it turns out that we don’t need to run surpluses anyway – in fact deficits can be a good thing! Hilarious.

Justin, try reading the thread above, it might help to see the whole picture.

justin heywood said :

Amusing to see the contortions the True Believers will put themselves through to maintain their delusion. A budget surplus this year has been an iron-clad article of faith, regularly trotted out as proof of this government’s good economic management.

But now that promise has evaporated into the wind like so many others, it turns out that we don’t need to run surpluses anyway – in fact deficits can be a good thing! Hilarious.

I love the bit where you actually make a case for surpluses… oh right. you don’t.
I don’t care about the politics of it – it was never necessary in the first place.

And I kind of remember openly supporting the Liberals on here during the ACT election, which would tend to make me a pretty pathetic true believer.)

Cut thousands of staff through natural attrition? Not as hard as you might think. Combine a hiring freeze with baby boomers retiring at 54 and 11 on their CSS, then you can see how a government of either colour can lose employees without taking drastic action.

It was only a few years ago that PS labour force analysts were quietly worried about the potential effect of those baby boomers reaching retirement age, with graphs like this being tossed around. (comes from here). Now the politicians see it as an opportunity – some through so-called efficiency dividends and others by threats of mass-attritions.

Amusing to see the contortions the True Believers will put themselves through to maintain their delusion. A budget surplus this year has been an iron-clad article of faith, regularly trotted out as proof of this government’s good economic management.

But now that promise has evaporated into the wind like so many others, it turns out that we don’t need to run surpluses anyway – in fact deficits can be a good thing! Hilarious.

dungfungus said :

“…..the absurd Liberal position that the government should be by default running a surplus.”
But haven’t the current Labor government promised continually deliver a surplus to and indeed have supported the imperative for the same?

Yeah they have and I noted that in my earlier post. They bought into Howard’s BS rhetoric when it was convenient rather than trying to re-frame the issue when they had the chance. Now that choice is dragging them into the abyss

How does the fact that Labor continue to fail to deliver on their promises make it absurd for the Liberals to usually deliver a surplus?

That isn’t an argument I made. The whole premise of a surplus as normal is absurd. Why on earth should the government seek to amass a big pile of money and effectively lend it back to the private sector? given we don’t run a trade surplus, any government surplus HAS to be offset by private sector borrowing once there’s no more debt to ‘pay back’.
-government spending more than it receives = government borrowing from the private sector (and boy do super funds love those bonds)
-government spending less than it receives = government buying back previously issued bonds, and then eventually lending to the private sector.
Why? to what purpose?

And I would hardly call the forecast deficit of $18.5 billion (still two months to go aslo) a “modest” one.

But it is.
It is modest relative to Australian GDP and the revenues of the government, at about 1.3% of GDP.

The raw number means nothing out of context. An 18.5 billion $ deficit would be truly nothing for the united states, and absurd for fiji. The context of $18.5 billion in a ~$1380 billion economy is pretty bloody important. Hell, assume 20 billion and it’s still less than 1.5% of GDP.

The one thing guaranteed to blow out debt to gdp ratios is to try and cut a surplus out of a weakening economy.

For those of you worried about the Australian government debt, think about the Commonwealth budget as being a household budget. If we remove a few zeros, then:

Annual Income 39,800
Annual Expenditure 38,000
New Annual Debt 1,800
Debt balance 24,400

Probably similar to some households represented on RA.

But if we look at the US (championed by conservatives), then we see:

Annual Income 21,700
Annual Expenditure 38,200
New Credit Card Debt 16,500
Credit Card balance 142,710

Quite a different picture. That’s why we are rated at AAA.

pepmeup said :

Hockey said 12,000 from Canberra in first two years, Humphries said gov had to make savings quickly when asked about cuts. Canberra currently has about 10,000 unemployed on latest numbers (highest number since 2001) so ad 12,000 plus the trickle down in other businesses and itscprobably about 15,000 so we will have an unemployment t rate 2.5 times larger than we do now. Not a big issue is it?

Not if you don’t own your own house, don’t work and don’t rely on the salary of anyone else who works in canberra. All those in multi generational welfare don’t have anything to worry about, in fact things might get cheaper.

Well, it is not as if this has happened before. I have never worked in the public sector but I have still been retrenched, undertaken retraining and lived very frugally for 2 years before my situation improved. Life wasn’t meant to be easy you know.

Tetranitrate said :

dungfungus said :

“In fact, the whole economic theory underpinning “austerity” was recently shown to have been the result of an Excel spreadsheet fail by an economics student”
Wrong.
The key academic study often touted by austerity advocates was recently exposed as faulty. A postgraduate student was told to replicate the results of Reinhart and Rogoff’s key study using their data. After a semester of failing to do so, his supervisors got exasperated and tried to find his mistake. Instead, they found an excel error in the original study.
Reinhart and Rogoff missed Belgium in one of their ‘average’ calculations, along with some other minor errors. (You’re only allowed to ignore Belgium if you’re European, and the academics aren’t.)
A new paper was published by the smug academics who found the error. They claimed that, adjusted for this error, the conclusion was the opposite of the original Reinhart and Rogoff paper. Stimulus advocates rejoiced. The case for austerity was severely weakened. And the whole scandal went global.
But since then, it’s emerged that the second study, disproving the first, is also flawed. Rather than just fixing the mistake made, the new paper changed some of the other assumptions.

Even if you accept the somewhat dodgy premise that government debt/gdp ratios do have a statistically significant effect on growth, that still doesn’t really excuse the absurd Liberal position that the government should be by default running a surplus.
In actual fact it can run a modest deficit (eg: what it’s running now or a little more) and have the debt/GDP ratio remain stable or even fall.
Eg: if the government is running on average a 1.5% of GDP deficit and in the long run Nominal GDP is moving at 4-5% or more, it’s perfectly sustainable. I mean hell, Menzies never ran a surplus in his life. This whole deficit hysteria thing only really emerged in the 80s and 90s.

And as far as the paper goes – plotting a bunch of data points for Debt/GDP and growth from the past 60 years and fitting a trend line with OLS is a joke. Especially when you cherry-pick data.
Lots of issues with New Zealand in particular. ie:
http://silverberg-on-meltdown-economics.blogspot.co.at/2013/04/one-strike-and-youre-out-or-reinhart.html
http://silverberg-on-meltdown-economics.blogspot.com.au/2013/04/reinhart-rogoff-vs-new-zealand-1951.html

“…..the absurd Liberal position that the government should be by default running a surplus.”
But haven’t the current Labor government promised continually deliver a surplus to and indeed have supported the imperative for the same?
How does the fact that Labor continue to fail to deliver on their promises make it absurd for the Liberals to usually deliver a surplus?
And I would hardly call the forecast deficit of $18.5 billion (still two months to go aslo) a “modest” one.

Hockey said 12,000 from Canberra in first two years, Humphries said gov had to make savings quickly when asked about cuts. Canberra currently has about 10,000 unemployed on latest numbers (highest number since 2001) so ad 12,000 plus the trickle down in other businesses and itscprobably about 15,000 so we will have an unemployment t rate 2.5 times larger than we do now. Not a big issue is it?

Not if you don’t own your own house, don’t work and don’t rely on the salary of anyone else who works in canberra. All those in multi generational welfare don’t have anything to worry about, in fact things might get cheaper.

Abbott is a maniac, did anyone see his speech about what makes Australia great? He was referring to scientific discoveries and great sporting heroes, great companies but no mention of the little guy – you and me. I think it is the hard worker or student in any field or profession that makes this country great. From the kitchen hands to tradesmen, public servants to doctors. No I am not a communist btw, I believe in socialism existing with capitalism without extremes. I would rather vote Gillard than old budgy smugglers.

Sorry about that. You might be better reading this one
http://www.dailylife.com.au/news-and-views/dl-opinion/why-australia-hates-thinkers-20130513-2jhis.html

🙂

rosscoact said :

dungfungus said :

rosscoact said :

CraigT said :

dungfungus said :

Deref said :

Jim Jones said :

dungfungus said :

The whole country is suffering economic hardship

Really?

Where on earth are you getting this idea from?

My guess would be Alan Jones and the Murdoch media.

Your guess would be wrong then.
I draw my own conclusions about what is happeneing in the economic world by …blablabla.

…thus proving he gets his economic “information” from Alan Jones and the breathless panic-pieces in the various Murdoch rags.

Here is a colour-coded picture that depicts Australia’s debt in terms that even an Alan Jones listener could potentially understand:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/92/Dette_publique2011.jpg/280px-Dette_publique2011.jpg

As any normal person can see, Australia’s debt is tiny.

And, as any normal person also knows, the European notion (shared by that raging idiot, Tony Abbott) that cutting back on spending is a suitable response to a recession was proven wrong. Australia’s response, however, was proven to have been correct.

In fact, the whole economic theory underpinning “austerity” was recently shown to have been the result of an Excel spreadsheet fail by an economics student:
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2013/04/grad-student-who-shook-global-austerity-movement.html

What astounds me is that there is anybody in this town that is so retarded they would even consider voting for a aprty led (or rather, hijacked) by Tony Abbott. He’s a menace, a panic-merchant who has been talking-down the Australian economy for years, a bully and a sociopath, an anti-cience ideologue, already internationally reviled, a populist who appeals to cranky fringes of society, and a rampant liar and a cheat.
Even if that wasn’t enough, he’s made it perfectly clear he intends to cause a recession for Canberra. And there are morons who still intend to vote Liberal in Canberra.

If anyone believes that national austerity is anything but a stupid policy listen to Mark Blyth here http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/bigideas/austerity3a-the-history-of-a-dangerous-idea/4658124
then do some of your own research. You will be hard put to find a thinker (as opposed to imbeciles such as Hockey, Abbott and their slavering lickspittles Jones and Bolt) who agrees with it as a national economic policy although it is arguably a rational notion for a household.

Who is Mark Blyth?

here you go http://bit.ly/15UTlNm

Thanks for that.
I honestly have never heard of him, probably because I have little time for academic authors who are so insecure they have to constantly remind their devotees that they are also “thinkers”.

Also, that link you quoted was a bit dodgy; it kept trying to flog me an “app” for a device called an iphone thingy.

dungfungus said :

rosscoact said :

CraigT said :

dungfungus said :

Deref said :

Jim Jones said :

dungfungus said :

The whole country is suffering economic hardship

Really?

Where on earth are you getting this idea from?

My guess would be Alan Jones and the Murdoch media.

Your guess would be wrong then.
I draw my own conclusions about what is happeneing in the economic world by …blablabla.

…thus proving he gets his economic “information” from Alan Jones and the breathless panic-pieces in the various Murdoch rags.

Here is a colour-coded picture that depicts Australia’s debt in terms that even an Alan Jones listener could potentially understand:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/92/Dette_publique2011.jpg/280px-Dette_publique2011.jpg

As any normal person can see, Australia’s debt is tiny.

And, as any normal person also knows, the European notion (shared by that raging idiot, Tony Abbott) that cutting back on spending is a suitable response to a recession was proven wrong. Australia’s response, however, was proven to have been correct.

In fact, the whole economic theory underpinning “austerity” was recently shown to have been the result of an Excel spreadsheet fail by an economics student:
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2013/04/grad-student-who-shook-global-austerity-movement.html

What astounds me is that there is anybody in this town that is so retarded they would even consider voting for a aprty led (or rather, hijacked) by Tony Abbott. He’s a menace, a panic-merchant who has been talking-down the Australian economy for years, a bully and a sociopath, an anti-cience ideologue, already internationally reviled, a populist who appeals to cranky fringes of society, and a rampant liar and a cheat.
Even if that wasn’t enough, he’s made it perfectly clear he intends to cause a recession for Canberra. And there are morons who still intend to vote Liberal in Canberra.

If anyone believes that national austerity is anything but a stupid policy listen to Mark Blyth here http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/bigideas/austerity3a-the-history-of-a-dangerous-idea/4658124
then do some of your own research. You will be hard put to find a thinker (as opposed to imbeciles such as Hockey, Abbott and their slavering lickspittles Jones and Bolt) who agrees with it as a national economic policy although it is arguably a rational notion for a household.

Who is Mark Blyth?

here you go http://bit.ly/15UTlNm

dungfungus said :

“In fact, the whole economic theory underpinning “austerity” was recently shown to have been the result of an Excel spreadsheet fail by an economics student”
Wrong.
The key academic study often touted by austerity advocates was recently exposed as faulty. A postgraduate student was told to replicate the results of Reinhart and Rogoff’s key study using their data. After a semester of failing to do so, his supervisors got exasperated and tried to find his mistake. Instead, they found an excel error in the original study.
Reinhart and Rogoff missed Belgium in one of their ‘average’ calculations, along with some other minor errors. (You’re only allowed to ignore Belgium if you’re European, and the academics aren’t.)
A new paper was published by the smug academics who found the error. They claimed that, adjusted for this error, the conclusion was the opposite of the original Reinhart and Rogoff paper. Stimulus advocates rejoiced. The case for austerity was severely weakened. And the whole scandal went global.
But since then, it’s emerged that the second study, disproving the first, is also flawed. Rather than just fixing the mistake made, the new paper changed some of the other assumptions.

Even if you accept the somewhat dodgy premise that government debt/gdp ratios do have a statistically significant effect on growth, that still doesn’t really excuse the absurd Liberal position that the government should be by default running a surplus.
In actual fact it can run a modest deficit (eg: what it’s running now or a little more) and have the debt/GDP ratio remain stable or even fall.
Eg: if the government is running on average a 1.5% of GDP deficit and in the long run Nominal GDP is moving at 4-5% or more, it’s perfectly sustainable. I mean hell, Menzies never ran a surplus in his life. This whole deficit hysteria thing only really emerged in the 80s and 90s.

And as far as the paper goes – plotting a bunch of data points for Debt/GDP and growth from the past 60 years and fitting a trend line with OLS is a joke. Especially when you cherry-pick data.
Lots of issues with New Zealand in particular. ie:
http://silverberg-on-meltdown-economics.blogspot.co.at/2013/04/one-strike-and-youre-out-or-reinhart.html
http://silverberg-on-meltdown-economics.blogspot.com.au/2013/04/reinhart-rogoff-vs-new-zealand-1951.html

Hockey’s post-Budget interview with the Business Spectator confirmed that they are counting on a reduction of 12,000 in the APS through natural attrition, and that this is based on turnover figures from recent years – which may prove to be a heroic assumption. Hockey reinforced the connection between the savings from this staffing reduction and the retention of the taxation scales/rates and benefit increases which took effect last year – so this savings measure is very important to them politically, and I expect they will be determined to achieve it, one way or another.

It may well be that the people who are confidently saying this would largely be just another revolving door exercise truly believe that – then again, some may be saying that to provide encouragement and reassurance – just like P.T. Barnum’s famous “this way to the egress” sign.

dungfungus said :

Please quote two specific examples of “Abbott’s negativity” that have impacted on the ACT economy then.

The fact he likely to get in power is a fine example and the fact he has said that he will cut so many jobs is another. Also your question is a bit skewed the guy you were replying to said that the thought of Abbott getting into power was effecting business confidence, not the ACT economy. They are subtly different.

@CraigT and rosscoact
You’re both absolutely right of course – the entire premise of the ‘must have a surplus’ drive is utterly ridiculous. But unfortunately labor stepped right into it. Somebody like Rudd could probably have credibly challenged the paradigm early on, but year after year Swan and Gillard have stepped right into it.
The course that the government is on right now is probably liable to result in the country drifting into recession once mining investment starts falling off – if Abbott gets into office and starts trying to cut a surplus out of the budget, he will plunge this country into a very nasty recession – it’ll be a perfect storm.
I can just imagine all the excuses and endless blaming of the Gillard government that will occur when year after year, Abbott finds that revenues keep miraculously falling short.

rosscoact said :

CraigT said :

dungfungus said :

Deref said :

Jim Jones said :

dungfungus said :

The whole country is suffering economic hardship

Really?

Where on earth are you getting this idea from?

My guess would be Alan Jones and the Murdoch media.

Your guess would be wrong then.
I draw my own conclusions about what is happeneing in the economic world by …blablabla.

…thus proving he gets his economic “information” from Alan Jones and the breathless panic-pieces in the various Murdoch rags.

Here is a colour-coded picture that depicts Australia’s debt in terms that even an Alan Jones listener could potentially understand:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/92/Dette_publique2011.jpg/280px-Dette_publique2011.jpg

As any normal person can see, Australia’s debt is tiny.

And, as any normal person also knows, the European notion (shared by that raging idiot, Tony Abbott) that cutting back on spending is a suitable response to a recession was proven wrong. Australia’s response, however, was proven to have been correct.

In fact, the whole economic theory underpinning “austerity” was recently shown to have been the result of an Excel spreadsheet fail by an economics student:
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2013/04/grad-student-who-shook-global-austerity-movement.html

What astounds me is that there is anybody in this town that is so retarded they would even consider voting for a aprty led (or rather, hijacked) by Tony Abbott. He’s a menace, a panic-merchant who has been talking-down the Australian economy for years, a bully and a sociopath, an anti-cience ideologue, already internationally reviled, a populist who appeals to cranky fringes of society, and a rampant liar and a cheat.
Even if that wasn’t enough, he’s made it perfectly clear he intends to cause a recession for Canberra. And there are morons who still intend to vote Liberal in Canberra.

If anyone believes that national austerity is anything but a stupid policy listen to Mark Blyth here http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/bigideas/austerity3a-the-history-of-a-dangerous-idea/4658124
then do some of your own research. You will be hard put to find a thinker (as opposed to imbeciles such as Hockey, Abbott and their slavering lickspittles Jones and Bolt) who agrees with it as a national economic policy although it is arguably a rational notion for a household.

“In fact, the whole economic theory underpinning “austerity” was recently shown to have been the result of an Excel spreadsheet fail by an economics student”
Wrong.
The key academic study often touted by austerity advocates was recently exposed as faulty. A postgraduate student was told to replicate the results of Reinhart and Rogoff’s key study using their data. After a semester of failing to do so, his supervisors got exasperated and tried to find his mistake. Instead, they found an excel error in the original study.
Reinhart and Rogoff missed Belgium in one of their ‘average’ calculations, along with some other minor errors. (You’re only allowed to ignore Belgium if you’re European, and the academics aren’t.)
A new paper was published by the smug academics who found the error. They claimed that, adjusted for this error, the conclusion was the opposite of the original Reinhart and Rogoff paper. Stimulus advocates rejoiced. The case for austerity was severely weakened. And the whole scandal went global.
But since then, it’s emerged that the second study, disproving the first, is also flawed. Rather than just fixing the mistake made, the new paper changed some of the other assumptions.

Roundhead89 said :

Deref said :

Jim Jones said :

dungfungus said :

The whole country is suffering economic hardship

Really?

Where on earth are you getting this idea from?

My guess would be Alan Jones and the Murdoch media.

Erm, does a record budget deficit and a record national debt which will take 30 years to pay back to China ring any bells?

As you are clearly an expert in all things financial can you please tell me what having a deficit really means and why the government should always be aiming for a surplus? Also if we are in deficit and are up shit creek how is it going to take 30 years to repay? Clearly if we are that far up the creek it will take a lot longer to pay back won’t it?

CraigT said :

dungfungus said :

Deref said :

Jim Jones said :

dungfungus said :

The whole country is suffering economic hardship

Really?

Where on earth are you getting this idea from?

My guess would be Alan Jones and the Murdoch media.

Your guess would be wrong then.
I draw my own conclusions about what is happeneing in the economic world by …blablabla.

…thus proving he gets his economic “information” from Alan Jones and the breathless panic-pieces in the various Murdoch rags.

Here is a colour-coded picture that depicts Australia’s debt in terms that even an Alan Jones listener could potentially understand:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/92/Dette_publique2011.jpg/280px-Dette_publique2011.jpg

As any normal person can see, Australia’s debt is tiny.

And, as any normal person also knows, the European notion (shared by that raging idiot, Tony Abbott) that cutting back on spending is a suitable response to a recession was proven wrong. Australia’s response, however, was proven to have been correct.

In fact, the whole economic theory underpinning “austerity” was recently shown to have been the result of an Excel spreadsheet fail by an economics student:
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2013/04/grad-student-who-shook-global-austerity-movement.html

What astounds me is that there is anybody in this town that is so retarded they would even consider voting for a aprty led (or rather, hijacked) by Tony Abbott. He’s a menace, a panic-merchant who has been talking-down the Australian economy for years, a bully and a sociopath, an anti-cience ideologue, already internationally reviled, a populist who appeals to cranky fringes of society, and a rampant liar and a cheat.
Even if that wasn’t enough, he’s made it perfectly clear he intends to cause a recession for Canberra. And there are morons who still intend to vote Liberal in Canberra.

Touche! The Libs don’t have to do the exact opposite of ALP just for the sake of it. I wish people would actully pick the sensible path, regardless of if it is the same/similar to the ‘other mob’….. The way it is, halp of any parties options are off limits – even if they are a good idea!

rosscoact said :

CraigT said :

dungfungus said :

Deref said :

Jim Jones said :

dungfungus said :

The whole country is suffering economic hardship

Really?

Where on earth are you getting this idea from?

My guess would be Alan Jones and the Murdoch media.

Your guess would be wrong then.
I draw my own conclusions about what is happeneing in the economic world by …blablabla.

…thus proving he gets his economic “information” from Alan Jones and the breathless panic-pieces in the various Murdoch rags.

Here is a colour-coded picture that depicts Australia’s debt in terms that even an Alan Jones listener could potentially understand:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/92/Dette_publique2011.jpg/280px-Dette_publique2011.jpg

As any normal person can see, Australia’s debt is tiny.

And, as any normal person also knows, the European notion (shared by that raging idiot, Tony Abbott) that cutting back on spending is a suitable response to a recession was proven wrong. Australia’s response, however, was proven to have been correct.

In fact, the whole economic theory underpinning “austerity” was recently shown to have been the result of an Excel spreadsheet fail by an economics student:
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2013/04/grad-student-who-shook-global-austerity-movement.html

What astounds me is that there is anybody in this town that is so retarded they would even consider voting for a aprty led (or rather, hijacked) by Tony Abbott. He’s a menace, a panic-merchant who has been talking-down the Australian economy for years, a bully and a sociopath, an anti-cience ideologue, already internationally reviled, a populist who appeals to cranky fringes of society, and a rampant liar and a cheat.
Even if that wasn’t enough, he’s made it perfectly clear he intends to cause a recession for Canberra. And there are morons who still intend to vote Liberal in Canberra.

If anyone believes that national austerity is anything but a stupid policy listen to Mark Blyth here http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/bigideas/austerity3a-the-history-of-a-dangerous-idea/4658124
then do some of your own research. You will be hard put to find a thinker (as opposed to imbeciles such as Hockey, Abbott and their slavering lickspittles Jones and Bolt) who agrees with it as a national economic policy although it is arguably a rational notion for a household.

Who is Mark Blyth?

CraigT said :

dungfungus said :

Deref said :

Jim Jones said :

dungfungus said :

The whole country is suffering economic hardship

Really?

Where on earth are you getting this idea from?

My guess would be Alan Jones and the Murdoch media.

Your guess would be wrong then.
I draw my own conclusions about what is happeneing in the economic world by …blablabla.

…thus proving he gets his economic “information” from Alan Jones and the breathless panic-pieces in the various Murdoch rags.

Here is a colour-coded picture that depicts Australia’s debt in terms that even an Alan Jones listener could potentially understand:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/92/Dette_publique2011.jpg/280px-Dette_publique2011.jpg

As any normal person can see, Australia’s debt is tiny.

And, as any normal person also knows, the European notion (shared by that raging idiot, Tony Abbott) that cutting back on spending is a suitable response to a recession was proven wrong. Australia’s response, however, was proven to have been correct.

In fact, the whole economic theory underpinning “austerity” was recently shown to have been the result of an Excel spreadsheet fail by an economics student:
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2013/04/grad-student-who-shook-global-austerity-movement.html

What astounds me is that there is anybody in this town that is so retarded they would even consider voting for a aprty led (or rather, hijacked) by Tony Abbott. He’s a menace, a panic-merchant who has been talking-down the Australian economy for years, a bully and a sociopath, an anti-cience ideologue, already internationally reviled, a populist who appeals to cranky fringes of society, and a rampant liar and a cheat.
Even if that wasn’t enough, he’s made it perfectly clear he intends to cause a recession for Canberra. And there are morons who still intend to vote Liberal in Canberra.

If anyone believes that national austerity is anything but a stupid policy listen to Mark Blyth here http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/bigideas/austerity3a-the-history-of-a-dangerous-idea/4658124
then do some of your own research. You will be hard put to find a thinker (as opposed to imbeciles such as Hockey, Abbott and their slavering lickspittles Jones and Bolt) who agrees with it as a national economic policy although it is arguably a rational notion for a household.

cranky said :

As a (very) small businessman, I contend that Abbott’s continual negativity since the last election has had a massive draining effect on ACT business confidence.

Every ACT business is reliant to a major degree on the health of the public service. Abbott’s pledge to gut the PS will mean a massive decrease in local private employment.

I am having to reinvent my business to cater for the area of Gov that will not be badly affected. Probably lucky I can (hopefully) do it.

Please quote two specific examples of “Abbott’s negativity” that have impacted on the ACT economy then.
I thought the Gillard Labor/Green/Independent minority government was running the country – they are theone’s that are currently eliminating jobs in the federal PS by the way but we all know it is Abbott’s fault somehow.
Please also give us your insight as to which area of government (public service?) that will not be badly affected when Abbott “guts” the PS.
If you can’t adapt to the ebb and flow of changing business conditions then you should seek salvation somewhere else perhaps.

dungfungus said :

Deref said :

Jim Jones said :

dungfungus said :

The whole country is suffering economic hardship

Really?

Where on earth are you getting this idea from?

My guess would be Alan Jones and the Murdoch media.

Your guess would be wrong then.
I draw my own conclusions about what is happeneing in the economic world by …blablabla.

…thus proving he gets his economic “information” from Alan Jones and the breathless panic-pieces in the various Murdoch rags.

Here is a colour-coded picture that depicts Australia’s debt in terms that even an Alan Jones listener could potentially understand:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/92/Dette_publique2011.jpg/280px-Dette_publique2011.jpg

As any normal person can see, Australia’s debt is tiny.

And, as any normal person also knows, the European notion (shared by that raging idiot, Tony Abbott) that cutting back on spending is a suitable response to a recession was proven wrong. Australia’s response, however, was proven to have been correct.

In fact, the whole economic theory underpinning “austerity” was recently shown to have been the result of an Excel spreadsheet fail by an economics student:
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2013/04/grad-student-who-shook-global-austerity-movement.html

What astounds me is that there is anybody in this town that is so retarded they would even consider voting for a aprty led (or rather, hijacked) by Tony Abbott. He’s a menace, a panic-merchant who has been talking-down the Australian economy for years, a bully and a sociopath, an anti-cience ideologue, already internationally reviled, a populist who appeals to cranky fringes of society, and a rampant liar and a cheat.
Even if that wasn’t enough, he’s made it perfectly clear he intends to cause a recession for Canberra. And there are morons who still intend to vote Liberal in Canberra.

LSWCHP said :

Ben_Dover said :

Much as I tend to the right of centre in my politics on most, but not all, issues, I could not hand on heart swear I would vote for any party with Abbott as leader.

Aye. There’s the rub. Federal Labor are rubbish, but Abbott appears to be…errrmm…rubbish. And he’s the captain of the ship, so the crew will follow his lead.

We’re screwed from all directions.

+1. There are no winners in this.

As a (very) small businessman, I contend that Abbott’s continual negativity since the last election has had a massive draining effect on ACT business confidence.

Every ACT business is reliant to a major degree on the health of the public service. Abbott’s pledge to gut the PS will mean a massive decrease in local private employment.

I am having to reinvent my business to cater for the area of Gov that will not be badly affected. Probably lucky I can (hopefully) do it.

Jim Jones said :

EvanJames said :

arescarti42 said :

Right…. Keep on drinking Swanny’s coolaid.

If you are attempting to refer to the Jonestown mass suicide, the correct term is Kool-Aid.

And it wasn’t even Kool-Aid, it was Flavor Aid (grape coloured).

Sounds like an expert opinion to me. 🙂

Ben_Dover said :

Much as I tend to the right of centre in my politics on most, but not all, issues, I could not hand on heart swear I would vote for any party with Abbott as leader.

Aye. There’s the rub. Federal Labor are rubbish, but Abbott appears to be…errrmm…rubbish. And he’s the captain of the ship, so the crew will follow his lead.

We’re screwed from all directions.

barbiekini said :

…and others will be retrenched and then most likely be back at the same desk the next week working for private contractors.

I have it from the horses mouth that that’s pretty much how the upper echelons of at least one department are planning to roll with this.

Deref said :

Jim Jones said :

dungfungus said :

The whole country is suffering economic hardship

Really?

Where on earth are you getting this idea from?

My guess would be Alan Jones and the Murdoch media.

Your guess would be wrong then.
I draw my own conclusions about what is happeneing in the economic world by analysing raw data like financial journalists and commentators used to do. They now get their “news” from political party spin doctors in the form of opinion.
A good example of “raw data” is the Baltic Dry Index which plumetted in 2008 but most investors ignored that signal that ushered in the GFC.
My background is finance and investment and I am rarely wrong. If I am wrong it is my wallet that wears it, not the rest of the country such is what is happening now thanks to Labor getting the wrong “advice”. I don’t go near the share market either.
How many more billions of dollars do you want to see this country borrow for God’s sake? The debt now can never be repaid which is bad enough but when we can’t even service the interest then we face what Argentina has had to deal with for the last 40 years.
Have you ever heard of a condition called “overproduction”? Check it out and then tell me what is about to happen.
It’s not rocket science you know.

Holden Caulfield said :

Jim Jones said :

dungfungus said :

The whole country is suffering economic hardship

Really?

Where on earth are you getting this idea from? Our robust financial system is the envy of the western world.

G’day Wayne, how’s things?

Perhaps Jim Jones is actually John Howard

Deref said :

Jim Jones said :

dungfungus said :

The whole country is suffering economic hardship

Really?

Where on earth are you getting this idea from?

My guess would be Alan Jones and the Murdoch media.

Erm, does a record budget deficit and a record national debt which will take 30 years to pay back to China ring any bells?

Jim Jones said :

dungfungus said :

The whole country is suffering economic hardship

Really?

Where on earth are you getting this idea from?

My guess would be Alan Jones and the Murdoch media.

Jim Jones said :

davo101 said :

Jim Jones said :

In 96, there were 11,000 jobs that went (8 per cent of the workforce) and Canberra had a recession.

Well yes and no. Canberra did have a recession in 1996…in the 12 months to June 1996 (Graph of the ACT’s GSP) so unless he had access to a time machine I’m not sure how this is related to the first Costello budget.

You’re trying to deny that there was a recession in Canberra by citing a graph of gross state product?

That’s … odd.

Oh, so you’re not one of those that goes in for the “two quarters of negative GDP growth” definition then?

So perhaps it was an increase in unemployment, nope didn’t happen.
Or maybe a reduction in disposable household income, nope that didn’t happen.
Or maybe a slump in retail turnover, nope still nothing there.
Or was it because house prices went backwards, nope can’t be that either.

Seriously, what is you definition of a recession? You felt a bit sad in 1996?

devils_advocate said :

“While this will upset a great many people here in the ACT, at least you won’t have to worry about pay parking the the parliamentary triangle anymore.”

Did I miss something? Has Abbott said he won’t introduce paid parking in the triangle?

I think the joke was because they will have no reason to be in the parliamentary triangle anymore so no need to park there.

dungfungus said :

dpm said :

dungfungus said :

Have you checked our almighty dollar today? Its fall is too late to save us unfortunately.

But the Govt wants the $ lower, apparently….?

They also wanted (and promised) a budget surplus.
All a day late and a dollar late I’m afraid.

I meant “a dollar (or a few billion of) short”

dungfungus said :

dpm said :

dungfungus said :

Have you checked our almighty dollar today? Its fall is too late to save us unfortunately.

But the Govt wants the $ lower, apparently….?

They also wanted (and promised) a budget surplus.
All a day late and a dollar late I’m afraid.

The whole ‘economy’ thing is a bit confusing for you, isn’t it.

davo101 said :

Jim Jones said :

In 96, there were 11,000 jobs that went (8 per cent of the workforce) and Canberra had a recession.

Well yes and no. Canberra did have a recession in 1996…in the 12 months to June 1996 (Graph of the ACT’s GSP) so unless he had access to a time machine I’m not sure how this is related to the first Costello budget.

You’re trying to deny that there was a recession in canberra by citing a graph of gross state product?

That’s … odd.

Jim Jones said :

In 96, there were 11,000 jobs that went (8 per cent of the workforce) and Canberra had a recession.

Well yes and no. Canberra did have a recession in 1996…in the 12 months to June 1996 (Graph of the ACT’s GSP) so unless he had access to a time machine I’m not sure how this is related to the first Costello budget.

Comic_and_Gamer_Nerd said :

Small business owners and staff in canberra should be worried right about now.

I would say that all but the most blissfully oblivious ones already are – even the slower ones will soon get the message:

http://www.mbedard.com/ProdImages/SittingDuck1.jpg

dpm said :

dungfungus said :

Have you checked our almighty dollar today? Its fall is too late to save us unfortunately.

But the Govt wants the $ lower, apparently….?

They also wanted (and promised) a budget surplus.
All a day late and a dollar late I’m afraid.

“While this will upset a great many people here in the ACT, at least you won’t have to worry about pay parking the the parliamentary triangle anymore.”

Did I miss something? Has Abbott said he won’t introduce paid parking in the triangle?

allyroger said :

Jim Jones said :

arescarti42 said :

Jim Jones said :

dungfungus said :

The whole country is suffering economic hardship

Really?

Where on earth are you getting this idea from? Our robust financial system is the envy of the western world.

Right…. Keep on drinking Swanny’s coolaid.

Australia’s credit rating is AAA+

Newcorps has been rated by Standard & Poor at BBB+, but we all know who to believe, right?

AAA+ ? Are you sure – didn’t think a Sovereign rating could rise above AAA?

My mistake: AAA. The plus belongs solely to Newscorp.

dpm said :

dungfungus said :

Have you checked our almighty dollar today? Its fall is too late to save us unfortunately.

But the Govt wants the $ lower, apparently….?

Lowest interest rates in … forever, unemployment rates lower than the ‘halcyon’ days of Howard, a triple A rated economy, a debt to GDP ratio that is the third lowest in the OECD … WE’RE ROONED!!!

Jim Jones said :

arescarti42 said :

Jim Jones said :

dungfungus said :

The whole country is suffering economic hardship

Really?

Where on earth are you getting this idea from? Our robust financial system is the envy of the western world.

Right…. Keep on drinking Swanny’s coolaid.

Australia’s credit rating is AAA+

For what it’s worth so was AIG and Lehman Brothers literally days before they collapsed.

allyroger said :

AAA+ ? Are you sure – didn’t think a Sovereign rating could rise above AAA?

I think you’re right:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-03-29/fitch-reaffirms-australias-aaa-rating/4601344
Interesting quotes:

“Australia is one of eight countries to have a AAA rating from the three major global ratings agencies.”
,
“Low public debt, strong public finances, low unemployment, lower interest rates strong investment pipeline.”
,
“Fitch upgraded Australia to AAA for the first time in 2011.”

and

EvanJames said :

arescarti42 said :

Right…. Keep on drinking Swanny’s coolaid.

If you are attempting to refer to the Jonestown mass suicide, the correct term is Kool-Aid.

And it wasn’t even Kool-Aid, it was Flavor Aid (grape coloured).

Jim Jones said :

dungfungus said :

The whole country is suffering economic hardship

Really?

Where on earth are you getting this idea from? Our robust financial system is the envy of the western world.

G’day Wayne, how’s things? What are your plans for October?

arescarti42 said :

Right…. Keep on drinking Swanny’s coolaid.

If you are attempting to refer to the Jonestown mass suicide, the correct term is Kool-Aid.

Jim Jones said :

arescarti42 said :

Jim Jones said :

dungfungus said :

The whole country is suffering economic hardship

Really?

Where on earth are you getting this idea from? Our robust financial system is the envy of the western world.

Right…. Keep on drinking Swanny’s coolaid.

Australia’s credit rating is AAA+

Newcorps has been rated by Standard & Poor at BBB+, but we all know who to believe, right?

AAA+ ? Are you sure – didn’t think a Sovereign rating could rise above AAA?

dungfungus said :

Have you checked our almighty dollar today? Its fall is too late to save us unfortunately.

But the Govt wants the $ lower, apparently….?

dungfungus said :

..The whole country is suffering economic hardship so ….

Out of interest, how so??

arescarti42 said :

Jim Jones said :

dungfungus said :

The whole country is suffering economic hardship

Really?

Where on earth are you getting this idea from? Our robust financial system is the envy of the western world.

Right…. Keep on drinking Swanny’s coolaid.

Australia’s credit rating is AAA+

Newcorps has been rated by Standard & Poor at BBB+, but we all know who to believe, right?

dungfungus said :

curmudgery said :

Aw, c’mon Canberra. There’s a lot more voters living outside the ACT than in it and the idea of getting stuck into the ‘shiny-bums’ in Canberra will have wide appeal.

Then, after the election, there’ll be unforeseen issues, cleaning up the last government’s mess, changes in world economics, the need for a phased approach and so on.

After all, isn’t Tony from the same mob that gave us ‘non-core promises’?

We’ve heard it all before …

The other mob said “no carbon taxes”

herp derp Juliar herp derp

Aren’t you supposed to be on the Andrew Bolt forum or something?

dungfungus said :

curmudgery said :

Aw, c’mon Canberra. There’s a lot more voters living outside the ACT than in it and the idea of getting stuck into the ‘shiny-bums’ in Canberra will have wide appeal.

Then, after the election, there’ll be unforeseen issues, cleaning up the last government’s mess, changes in world economics, the need for a phased approach and so on.

After all, isn’t Tony from the same mob that gave us ‘non-core promises’?

We’ve heard it all before …

The other mob said “no carbon taxes”

Quite right. And they haven’t paid for that one yet.

They’re all from the same mould.

Small business owners and staff in canberra should be worried right about now.

On the one hand I’m inclined to say “relax, this is simply electioneering”. Canberra bashing, particular in regards to public servants is popular everywhere in Australia other than here in Canberra. It is likely just hot air from politicians trying to garner voter support.

However, they’ve done it once in recent times and could well do it again…

Jim Jones said :

dungfungus said :

The whole country is suffering economic hardship

Really?

Where on earth are you getting this idea from? Our robust financial system is the envy of the western world.

Right…. Keep on drinking Swanny’s coolaid.

curmudgery said :

Aw, c’mon Canberra. There’s a lot more voters living outside the ACT than in it and the idea of getting stuck into the ‘shiny-bums’ in Canberra will have wide appeal.

Then, after the election, there’ll be unforeseen issues, cleaning up the last government’s mess, changes in world economics, the need for a phased approach and so on.

After all, isn’t Tony from the same mob that gave us ‘non-core promises’?

We’ve heard it all before …

The other mob said “no carbon taxes”

Aw, c’mon Canberra. There’s a lot more voters living outside the ACT than in it and the idea of getting stuck into the ‘shiny-bums’ in Canberra will have wide appeal.

Then, after the election, there’ll be unforeseen issues, cleaning up the last government’s mess, changes in world economics, the need for a phased approach and so on.

After all, isn’t Tony from the same mob that gave us ‘non-core promises’?

We’ve heard it all before …

Jim Jones said :

dungfungus said :

If government spending was deducted from Australia’s GDP we would be in a recession like Europe.

Utter tosh.

Our debt to GDP ratio is the third lowest in the OECD and is one-fifth of the OECD average.

Where are you getting this doomsday rubbish from?

Have you checked our almighty dollar today? Its fall is too late to save us unfortunately.

Jim Jones said :

dungfungus said :

The whole country is suffering economic hardship

Really?

Where on earth are you getting this idea from? Our robust financial system is the envy of the western world.

Really?

Its not all unicorns and rainbows. My ex company in the Construction industry slashed 50% of its workforce in 12 months – that’s Australia wide including the mining states.

dungfungus said :

If government spending was deducted from Australia’s GDP we would be in a recession like Europe.

Utter tosh.

Our debt to GDP ratio is the third lowest in the OECD and is one-fifth of the OECD average.

Where are you getting this doomsday rubbish from?

dungfungus said :

The whole country is suffering economic hardship

Really?

Where on earth are you getting this idea from? Our robust financial system is the envy of the western world.

Jim Jones said :

barbiekini said :

Is anyone else getting sick of all the negativity about what a Coalition government will do to Canberra? Yes 12,000 public servant jobs might go but they won’t all be in Canberra – there are Commonwealth public servants in the other states too. Most will go through natural attrition, and others will be retrenched and then most likely be back at the same desk the next week working for private contractors.

In 96, there were 11,000 jobs that went (8 per cent of the workforce) and Canberra had a recession.

‘Natural attrition’ of 12,000 … utter bollocks.

“In 96, there were 11,000 jobs that went (8 per cent of the workforce) and Canberra had a recession”.

You are still here and so am I so we all survived it. If government spending was deducted from Australia’s GDP we would be in a recession like Europe and they have been copping the job shedding as well, for a long time.
We are simply catching up with the economies of all those other countries that envied us.

barbiekini said :

Is anyone else getting sick of all the negativity about what a Coalition government will do to Canberra? Yes 12,000 public servant jobs might go but they won’t all be in Canberra – there are Commonwealth public servants in the other states too. Most will go through natural attrition, and others will be retrenched and then most likely be back at the same desk the next week working for private contractors.

The coalition, should they replace the Labor/Green/Independent minority government in the forthcoming September election, have openly stated they will eliminate 12,000 federal public service jobs over the first 2 years of their first term.
The current government has been covertly sacking the same numbers over the past 2 years so it’s really a “business as usual” situation to get the budget back to a surplus. Somehow the honesty of the coalition declaring their intention is worse than the hypocrisy of the government attacking the coalition for this while secretly doing the same thing.
Some people will unjustly refer to this as coalition “negativity”, go figure that one.
The budget papers released by the government on Tuesday night reveal that 1078 jobs at the Department of Human Services were shed in the last 6 months of 2012 and a further 1340 jobs will be cut in 2013-14. Meanwhile, the department is spending $30 million hiring casual and short-term labour as it deals with shedding more than 2400 of its permanent staff.
The whole country is suffering economic hardship so why should Canberrans be spared?

DHS managed to get rid of 1078 staff in 6 months through natural attrition (read:making life as uncomfortable for people as possible in order to get them to leave, I would suggest).
(http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/30m-for-casuals-as-department-of-human-services-cuts-2400-jobs-20130516-2jpob.html)

It has 36,000 staff nationwide admittedly, and that 1078 number is nationwide not just canberra.
Though it seems to me that if one agency can do this in 6 months, then say over 3 years 12,000 is feasible.

I can see a few relocated Canberrans in this exercise however.

I still see the key thing is the reduction of the efficiency dividend, which is actually giving money back to agencies technically, which they have done without with for a good couple of years now.

As for an additional 20,000 staff. IMHO Project Management frameworks and Contract Management/Procurement requirements have, in my opinion, increased the labour required on programs and projects in general, which has caused an increase in staff.

Will be interesting if their expectations of the Commonwealth APS in terms of service delivery are now reduced if they have 12,000 people less to deal with.

barbiekini said :

Is anyone else getting sick of all the negativity about what a Coalition government will do to Canberra? Yes 12,000 public servant jobs might go but they won’t all be in Canberra – there are Commonwealth public servants in the other states too. Most will go through natural attrition, and others will be retrenched and then most likely be back at the same desk the next week working for private contractors.

In 96, there were 11,000 jobs that went (8 per cent of the workforce) and Canberra had a recession.

‘Natural attrition’ of 12,000 … utter bollocks.

Much as I tend to the right of centre in my politics on most, but not all, issues, I could not hand on heart swear I would vote for any party with Abbott as leader.

Is anyone else getting sick of all the negativity about what a Coalition government will do to Canberra? Yes 12,000 public servant jobs might go but they won’t all be in Canberra – there are Commonwealth public servants in the other states too. Most will go through natural attrition, and others will be retrenched and then most likely be back at the same desk the next week working for private contractors.

I have no doubt that they are determined to make big cuts, for financial and philosophical reasons, but these numbers, if anything, make less sense after Abbott’s speech last night – particularly his commitment that proposals to clarify Commonwealth and State/Territory responsibilities would be put to the people at the election after next. If that commitment means that the really big (potential) savings in health, education, environment etc. are on hold for a few years, and Defence and security are exempt (apparently), and with a new government presumably relying heavily on the central agencies (albeit with some renovations) it is very difficult to see how 12,000 APS staff could quickly be cut in Canberra – even with compulsory redundancies, let alone by natural attrition and redeployment.

As I said on the related thread yesterday [http://the-riotact.com/aps-job-cuts-whats-really-going-to-happen/103159], we need somewhat more detail on the Liberals’ plans for public administration – what we have at present is a broad statement of intent which, if implemented as presently stated, would not just cause chaos and misery in Canberra, but could also cause big problems for a new Government with policies and plans of its own to implement. On the latter point, Howard’s near death experience in 1998 should be a salutary reminder that a very big parliamentary majority is no guarantee of a second term if enough stuff-ups occur in a first term – the avoidance of unnecessary convulsions in the APS would be useful in this regard.