Auction results 29 July - 4 August 2024

One week of low clearance rates in the middle of winter reported on one website and Retro is calling it a government conspiracy to hide the secret information that only he knows.

LOL, take a spell mate.

https://www.allhomes.com.au/auction-results/?date=2024-02-24

Did you read this?: https://the-riotact.com/well-supplied-unit-market-continues-to-fall/794013

Also, your link relates to the middle of summer and the clearance rates weren’t real good then. So, what’s your point?

Capital Retro,
I linked the general auction results from that site, but it has seemingly come up as the earlier dates results instead.

But because you’re technically savvy and interested in the data and trends, you would have just clicked on the Tab that allows you to select any week for this year, all available in a drop down list.

The latest results for 3rd August being 52 auctions scheduled with a 57% clearance rate.

And then if you use that tab again to look at the other dates, you’ll see similar results for the entire year, showing not much at all.

As for your link, what exactly do you think minor falls in unit prices and minor increases in house prices means exactly?

Particularly when both have had large increases in recent years, some normalisation of the market is expected and even desirable.

If you are talking about “recent years” you have to include those when interest rates were stupidly low and this abnormally increased unit (and house prices). A similar thing happened in the USA when the Clinton government shoe-horned renters into loans with a cheap, honeymoon interest rate. When the real rates came in the punters walked away from their mortgages and so began the GFC.

The RBA today confirmed that interest rates will not fall until at least 2025. They may even rise again.

The “normal” thing to happen now is a serious collapse of the real estate market in Australia. It’s happened before. It won’t be good for Canberra.

Retro,
a major real estate collapse will only occur if a major economic collapse occurs.

The economy of Canberra is always partially shielded from such impacts due to the nature of our economy. We don’t get as large booms either.

We don’t have the types of loans that were partially responsible for the US housing collapse either so it’s irrelevant to the ACT or Australian market.

But regardless, your original comment was an attempt to use one week’s data on one website to support some prediction that it was a major sign of housing collapse. And that the government was somehow trying to censor it.

Your claim was and is ridiculous, the data doesn’t remotely back your claims.

Is a recession a major enough economic collapse for you, chewy?

Some leading economic commentators believe Australia’s economy is already in recession and if it isn’t, it will be any day: https://www.forbes.com/advisor/au/personal-finance/will-australia-go-into-recession/

And to say the ACT economy is always partially shielded is totally incorrect. We are broke and we only have increases in rates and taxes derived from the building industry to keep paying the interest on our loans and unfunded superannuation liabilities. If falling real estate auction closures like we are having keep falling there will be a massive fall in stamp duty revenue for a start and then falling values due to falling activity. Don’t tell me you haven’t seen this before.

All the major banks have reported increased mortgage stress and the only difference between US mortgages and Australian ones is that in the USA, mortgagees can walk away from the debt leaving the mortgagee with no recourse to recover it. Have you ever heard of mortgage insurance in Australia? That is taken out at the borrowers’ cost to shield the lender in the event of an eviction. My contacts tell me there are huge problems with mortgage defaults already.

My reference to a D Notice was of course, satire. But no one else but you has contradicted what I am saying. Let’s be honest, the real estate industry in Canberra is a sacred cow and no one will bag it because almost everyone has a vested interest in it.

As usual, when your expertise on any subject I raise is challenged you dismiss me as being ridiculous. We will see.

No,
A simple recession is not enough.

Hope this helps you.

We would need a massive increase in unemployment, when it is still very low and steady at present. Interest rates are also on hold.

“If falling real estate auction closures like we are having”

Except we aren’t. That’s the point. The clearance rates haven’t really been moving at all. We are on track for a flat real estate year, nothing remotely suggesting what you claim to be happening.

“All the major banks have reported increased mortgage stress and the only difference between US mortgages and Australian ones is that in the USA, mortgagees can walk away from the debt leaving the mortgagee with no recourse to recover it.”

Yes, that difference being enormous compared to the Australian situation. Along with us not having the same type of honeymoon loans. Thanks for agreeing with me.

“As usual, when your expertise on any subject I raise is challenged you dismiss me as being ridiculous.”

I base my opinion on the evidence. Your original point attempted to use one week’s data on one website as evidence of some major upcoming crash.

I’ve shown that it isn’t the case and that other data shows almost no change in clearance rates, prices and properties on offer at all this year.

The link you yourself gave showed house prices increasing modestly.