11 January 2024

Fuel Efficiency Standard spark EV market needs - get on with it

| Ian Bushnell
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Canberra’s top model in 2023, the electric Tesla Model Y. A Fuel Efficiency Standard would mean more EV models and lower prices. Photo: Tesla.

The shift is on. Whether you like it or not, electric vehicles have moved beyond the novelty phase to be a significant and growing segment of the automotive market in Australia, reflecting what has been happening across the globe.

This week’s new car sales figures clearly show a trend to exponential take-up. EV sales in Australia doubled in 2023 to 7 per cent of new cars, while the increase in ACT was closer to tripling the previous year’s number. Eighteen per cent of new sales in the ACT last year were EVs.

With new brands hitting the market, including Volkswagen this year, there is an increasing, but still insufficient, range of models from runabouts to SUVs from which to choose.

Driving range also continues to rise, as does charging infrastructure, but price remains a barrier, particularly with the second-hand market still developing.

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Some ACT incomes may be able to match the price tags, but for many, an EV is out of reach despite the clear demand for a vehicle that doesn’t gulp petrol and empty the wallet.

Lower running costs are good for consumers and zero emissions are good for the environment, and this week’s update on global temperatures only makes transport decarbonisation more urgent.

Yet, the federal government is tarrying on introducing a Fuel Efficiency Standard that would pave the way for carmakers to give the Australian market the EVs it needs to provide much more choice and bring prices down.

The government has been consulting on the measure, which other countries have had for over a year, and committed to it in April when it launched the National Electric Vehicle Strategy.

Obviously, it has hit some speed bumps with entrenched interests that do not want EVs or other vehicles that will save drivers money in the fast lane at the expense of current popular but thirstier models.

The Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries insists that the industry wants a Fuel Efficiency Standard as long as there are no losers.

Chief executive Tony Weber said the availability and affordability of products across all market segments would be the key to a successful Fuel Efficiency Standard.

“Now we have the process underway, it’s critical that the federal government takes the time to get it right. That is essential for environmental outcomes and for consumers.”

But the longer the government talks, the more Australian motorists – and the environment – are missing out.

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Frustration is rightly growing in the EV industry and among groups such as the Climate Council at the government’s bid to apparently seek a political fix rather than lead on such a transformative issue.

EV sales will continue to accelerate – there is no stopping them now – but all agree a strong Fuel Efficiency Standard is the key to Australia making the switch at a meaningful pace.

Without it, carmakers will continue to withhold models from the market in favour of others that don’t measure up in countries that do have a standard, basically dumping dirty and expensive-to-run gas-guzzlers in Australia.

It’s time for Labor to prove its climate and cost-of-living credentials.

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Fuel efficiency standards are all well and good for new vehicles.

What about existing vehicles which some people want to keep because buying a new car is not feasible nor the right thing to do from an economic point of view?

Hi Ian Bushnell, Lets hope you are not correct, what is wrong with Hydrogen, i have enjoyed watching the Dakar 2024, and their future push which involved quiet a few different vehicles that used Hydrogen, it looks very promising, much better than Battery, that’s what I’m hanging out for Hydrogen Powered vehicles,

Hydrogen…yes. I think that will be attractive to more people. But it needs the infrastructure to refuel. But once that infrastructure is in, refueling will be quick and the person will be on their way again.

@G W
Absolutely – especially if this (https://www.rmit.edu.au/news/all-news/2023/feb/hydrogen-seawater) research project at Melbourne’s RMIT leads to cost-effective production of ‘green hydrogen’.

In a year or 2 EV sales will tank. In the US Sixt & Hertz are dropping Tesla’s from their fleet and Tesla prices are being cut.

Consumers will not be happy when their $75,000 investment loses 10% of its value overnight.

@franky22
If your crusade to evangelise the demise of the demon EV industry helps you sleep at night, free from the nightmare of an EV-dominated world, then go for it. Pleasant dreams.

I fully support EVs but they are being pushed by zealots & virtue signallers without proper planning & risk management.
I’m in a unit & we cannot get EV chargers installed until ACTEW upgrades the suburb’s poles & wires.

There are still a lot of bugs to be ironed out. I will buy one when they have a track record of reliability not on vague development plans to improve them.

@franky22
“I fully support EVs …” and “I will buy one …”
Wow that’s a backflip of which even Sam Kerr would be proud, franky22.

No one ever said EV technology is perfect but “vague development plans to improve them”. Really?
A quick google search shows the plans are anything but vague, the desired outcomes are very clear – https://energy5.com/how-electric-car-technology-is-advancing-to-make-them-more-affordable.

However, you do understand that EV manufacturers are hardly going to make the results of their R&D, for improving the technology, freely available to their competitors, don’t you? Nevertheless, a look at the history of EVs will show that advancements are clearly being made with each iteration of EV.

HiddenDragon7:20 pm 12 Jan 24

The narrative which would have us believe that “dirty and expensive-to-run gas-guzzlers” are being “dumped” (not sold in response to demand) in Australia because we are one of a dwindling band of laggard, deplorable (blah blah blah) countries yet to adopt enlightened fuel efficiency standards does beg an obvious question – if the alternative is so obviously better, why are these “gas guzzlers” still being produced and why do we need regulation to ban them?

An honest answer to that inconvenient question is probably similar to an unvarnished answer to the question “why do we need so much expensive and heavy handed government intervention in favour of renewable power generation when, for years, we have been told that it is cheaper and better than the alternatives?”

@Hidden Dragon
“if the alternative is so obviously better, why are these “gas guzzlers” still being produced and why do we need regulation to ban them?”
The answer is pretty simple, HD. We probably don’t need to ban them, as ICE vehicle sales peaked in 2017 and car manufacturers are making plans to progressively ditch production of ICE vehicles in favour of EVs and the like –
https://www.racv.com.au/royalauto/transport/electric-vehicles/car-brands-going-electric.html
Of course, many manufacturers are responding to legislation, but most of them see that their future is not in ICE production.

The government attacked Dutton for calling a boycott on Woolworths. Murray Watt said. ”We don’t live in a kind of country where governments dictate what supermarkets have to sell to people.’
This same government certainly likes dictating what cars we can drive

Yeah I saw that article too, Fp.

Apparently, Woolies won’t be selling themed products such as thongs this year. I guess Dutton will have to buy his new pair somewhere else.

Steven Belconnen12:41 pm 12 Jan 24

This is the most one sided article with zero understanding of the automotive landscape. Yes the ACT has had 18% vs national of 7%, however there has been no increase in the percentage uptake in the ACT for the last 12 months. It has flat lined, as it has in all overseas mature markets. Why? Because they are not fit for purpose for everyone. The top 3 selling cars in Aus last year were all “dirty” utes. The SUV market is over 55% of the total mix of cars sold. Australians use their cars differently to the UK and Europe where small passenger cars are the highest seller. So for a family of 4 who may need a 7 seater for flexibility, good luck finding a new one under $100K. Whilst EV’s are great, they are NOT the sole answer. We need a sustainable transition. One where no one gets left behind. And Australians are clearly demonstrating this by their choice when purchasing their next vehicle. Take all the current local and federal incentives away, and I wonder how the trend would look then Mr Bushnell. The reason the Feds are taking so long is unlike you, they are doing their due diligence, and once you look into this more deeply, you find the solution is a lot more complex than the “environmentalists” would have you think.

Steven Belconnen12:58 pm 12 Jan 24

Possibly refer yourself to the US Hertz decision also in the below article today in the news. Another reason a flatline and decline in the mix of EV’s sold is inevitable. The entry cost is high which offsets any “on going savings in maintenance and fuel” but worse than this is the re-sale values. Despite what the ACT Gov, Greens and EV councils will have you believe, the residual values are significantly worse than an ICE or Hybrid as the battery degenerates, no different to a 2nd hand phone, your EV, when its time to sell out of it, will almost be sale proof…

https://www.9news.com.au/motoring/hertz-is-selling-20000-electric-vehicles-to-buy-gasoline-cars-instead/47d9395c-fee4-475e-9cda-dad7b18634cc

” where no-one gets left behind”
One of the reasons SUVs are popular here is because Australia has already been left behind. Our lack of fuel efficiency standards in the sales mix allowed years of heavy promotion and sale of the dirtiest, least efficient vehicles, more difficult to sell elsewhere.

Steve – I assume you are new to reading Ian’s opinion pieces? Conveniently ignoring evidence that contradicts his world view and cherry-picking information to support his opinions is kind of his thing.

Steven Belconnen2:02 pm 12 Jan 24

LOL byline… The market (consumer) drives what the manufacturers send here. Not anything else. If that were not the case, the Toyota Corolla or Hyundai i30 would still be the number one seller in Aus. Not the “hard to sell” as you say Ranger, Hilux or D-Max. Wake up, look around when on your scooter and face the reality of the Australian automotive landscape and the diverse way we like to enjoy our mobility.

LOL Steven Belconnen, naïf

A Nonny Mouse5:46 pm 12 Jan 24

“there has been no increase in the percentage uptake in the ACT for the last 12 months. It has flat lined” You wouldn’t be related to ‘Jenny Belconnen’, would you?
Anyway, EV uptake in 2023 was double that of 2022 (which was double that of 2021, which was double that of 2020 and so on for the last decade). How can you call that “flatlining”?

GrumpyGrandpa12:33 pm 12 Jan 24

Yes, there has been a large uptake of EVs, with Tesla being the market leader in that category.

(I might be wrong, but I assume that most buyers are doing so through salary packaging arrangements and that makes me wonder whether the uptake would have been as high without the tax incentives?)

Outside of the passenger car category, where Telsa took the chocolates, the top 10 types of vehicles sold were ALL SUV or 4WD style of vehicles, with the Ford Ranger out selling Toyota Hilux for the 1st time.

There definitely is an uptake in EV sales, but Australians are sticking with their SUV and 4WDs.

EVs are FBT excempt. You’d be an idiot not to get a EV as part of a package.

Doesn’t mean they are worth it for most people. The pay back period on an EV is something like 30 years!

In those 30 years prices will come down and make them cheaper and safer.

Ian how many of the EVs have been leased vs outright purchased?

Ian why do you never warn of the safety risks. Ethical issues ?

Imagine as an adopter of all things EV, you had bought a base model Tesla in June 2022 for $65,500, then in Jul 2023 that base model had been reduced to $57,400. Any hopes of a future, decent trade-in are pipe dreams

https://infogram.com/1p1xpv9pqzlvqqamxwzpkl56mmc63wj7r0e

@Futureproof
Yes, Fp … it’s a pity you don’t understand the ‘early adoption principle’. They are risk-takers and trendsetters and not in it for the RoI.

Yes, early adopters value their personal utility over the cost risks of reliability, services and potential resale.

Congratulations on almost figuring out that much of the obvious.

I reckon the rush to EV’S will come to a grinding halt when people realise the problems with fire risks, insurance premiums, lack of recharge facilities, poor reliability and range anxiety.

@franky22
Nice one.

Can I suggest you do some research before regurgitating the usual EV scare mongering:
– fire risk – yeah … nah => https://www.drive.com.au/caradvice/how-many-electric-cars-have-caught-fire-australia/
– insurance premiums – yes but not in isolation => The Insurance Council of Australia says that on average, EVs are 18 per cent more expensive to insure … but let’s not forget that general insurance premiums (particularly for home and contents) are increasing due to claims from disasters attributable to an increase in severe weather events resulting from climate change
– poor reliability – relatively, but improving => the current relative (to ICEs) new technology does present more issues statistically, but this is improving all the time as car manufacturers expend more R & D $s on improving EV technology … the R & D investment on ICEs is rapidly declining
– range anxiety – a generalised myth => the only people suffering from range anxiety are those who are anti-EV … EVs already exceed most drivers’ needs and again manufacturers are continually working to improve EV range

As for EV sales coming to a grinding halt? Well, not really as sales are continuing to increase each year. Not so for ICE vehicles:
https://www.carscoops.com/2023/03/study-suggests-ice-sales-peaked-in-2017-and-wont-return-to-pre-pandemic-levels/

The article you quote on fires is barely disguised promotional effort from the EV sector.
We went to Sydney in a Hyundai EV & were almost stranded because charging stations were either occupied or not working & we almost missed our function.

Hybrids yes but would not touch a full EV.

I will admit though that there is a nugget of truth in charging infrastructure. Though this is not really the fault of electric vehicles. This is more a lack of foresight by everyone involved. Give it a year or three and charging infrastructure will be closer to where it needs to be.

I have also previously stumbled across the article on fires previously. I wouldn’t exactly call it a promotional effort from the EV sector. The figures quoted came from an insurance company. I think it’s telling that they quoted EVs as being significantly lower risk – if they are as high a risk as you say Franky, I would expect them to simply refuse to insure them to avoid taking on that risk, rather than promote their use as a viable alternative.

JS – for you viewing pleasure. Note how many firefighters involved, how many appliances are involved
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=itGeAq9rBeY

@franky22
Yes, of course frank, drive.com.au is totally an EV sector website. LOL – clutching at straws there, mate.

So what you really meant to say in your initial post, is “Because of my one road trip experience in an EV, I would purchase a hybrid but not touch a full EV.”

I get it – you are not a fan of EVs, but don’t try to manufacture a case for the end of EVs because of that.

My ICE vehicle is at the stage where I’m considering a new vehicle. I’ll probably go for a hybrid. However, it won’t be for any of the reasons you state, but for the real issue which most new car purchasers face – price. If I wait five years or so, market share on EVs will have increased even further and the price will come down. Early adopters of new technology always pay a premium price.

@Futureproof
Gee thanks, Fp. One good turn deserves another:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T2xZpYQMtpU

How many 10 year old EVs are there that have been modded?

Just wait until you can’t buy an OEM battery for your 10 year old car and have to get a grey market import. Then that battery is parked in your building next to a bunch of high capacity Teslas!

What are the risks of a brand new ICE car catching fire vs one thats 30 years old?

EVs have the statistical bias as they are new.

Oh I don’t know, gooterz. You seem to be an expert on all things EV – why don’t you tell me?

Who’d have thought, Ian is pushing for more government manipulation of the market to push his agenda… would never have seen that happening.

Of the 7% of national takeup of electric vehicles, how much of that was due to local and national governments replacing their fleets with electrics to virtue signal their green credentials with taxpayer dollars?

Current electrics are just too damn heavy and inconvenient. Personally, I’ll be waiting to see how this pans out before even considering an electric car.
https://newsroom.porsche.com/en_AU/2022/sustainability/HIF-Press-Release—Tasmania-29056.html

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