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Labor Smashing on the Cards for ACT?

By beasley - 11 August 2008 75

The results are still coming in for the NT election held over the weekend with counting still going on to decide who forms Government, but one thing is for sure, and that is the ALP were delivered a thumping.

A massive swing, several points higher than ever their most pessimist observer were expecting, can surely be read as a sign of the times for ALP across the nation.

Just like in the VIC by-election, it appears local issues were put aside and national issues were the fore with the NT ALP getting smashed for the failing of their federal counterparts, ie: taking a booming economy and sending it bust in just six months.

Anyway, there must be smiles at the ACT Libs today as they hope the same voter sentiment will occur come October here.

Stanhope should see the writing on the wall and will be distancing himself from them as much as possible in the next several months. We might finally get him to stick up for us for once rather than copping it in the backside all the time.

[ED – Not so sure this is that significant, NT tories were coming off a very, very low base having lost Government at the previous election]

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75 Responses to
Labor Smashing on the Cards for ACT?
BerraBoy68 9:36 pm 11 Aug 08

Deano said :

Morgan said :

Apart from a few noisy minorities, Labor isn’t that unpopular with the general population. Whilst they haven’t done anything outstanding, they have avoided making any of the idiotic blunders previous governments have made.

Like Thumper, I’ll predict a Labor return, with the Liberals losing seats to the independents and minor issue parties.

Ditto that for me too.

hobbyhorse1 9:34 pm 11 Aug 08

I predict a massive swing against Labor and if the Liberal Party continues to perform well it will pick up the seats it needs to form government.

Deano 8:24 pm 11 Aug 08

Morgan said :

I think the Jury is out on the opposition being better.

I don’t think the jury has any doubts at the moment about the lack of capability in the opposition ranks.

Apart from a few noisy minorities, Labor isn’t that unpopular with the general population. Whilst they haven’t done anything outstanding, they have avoided making any of the idiotic blunders previous governments have made.

Like Thumper, I’ll predict a Labor return, with the Liberals losing seats to the independents and minor issue parties.

caf 8:24 pm 11 Aug 08

You really don’t have any basis for your claim that the NT election was fought on national issues, rather than local, do you?

Thumper 8:06 pm 11 Aug 08

I should add that I can see Stanhope returned in a minority governmnet.

Parties such as CAP will take votes away from the Libs and deliver Stanhope victory.

miz 8:05 pm 11 Aug 08

Local issues are the ones I am factoring in for the ACT election, that’s for sure. And I heard NT ran on local issues also – ie, some gas plant in Darwin Harbour – so I would say they are more likely to be disgruntled with the local mob.

I voted for ALP federally, but damned if I am voting them in again locally after the abysmal performance we have had on a myriad of areas (all listed before). For me, they are totally separate.

Re federal issues, I’m happy with Kev so far. He seems to have struck a balance about a lot of issues and done some good things (eg Kyoto, Apology, 2020). No one can honestly blame Kev (who has only been in for such a short time) for international oil/share market issues.

Thumper 8:04 pm 11 Aug 08

Bob Mc WHo?

Morgan 7:59 pm 11 Aug 08

As Bob McMullen said the other day in a lecture there are three conditions for a change of government, in order.

1. Electorate entertains idea of change

2. Government is Bad

3. Opposition is better

I think we are ready for a change, I think the Government is bad, but I think the Jury is out on the opposition being better. Hey!!! I wonder what Carnell is up to, do you think she wants another crack at it?

Kitchen Man 7:48 pm 11 Aug 08

I don’t think we needed an NT poll to tell us that the ACT election of this year will be a helluva lot closer than 2004.

VicePope 6:59 pm 11 Aug 08

The NT election said a lot of things, mostly about that election in the NT. Governments that stil have a year to run should make a case for going early – and Labor didn’t. Chief Ministers with months on the clock are being presumptuous by running on experience (see also Unsworth in NSW and Corcoran in SA). An election apparently about nothing will be unlikely to get people excited. A campaign based on issues within a limited area of the whole electorate runs a risk of alienating everyone outside that area. An opposition on a historically low base will usually improve. A government that the media tips to win in a landslide will probably get a backhander. Turnout in the NT varies a lot, and this was apparently pretty low.

Not much of this will apply in the ACT, I think. There are a swag of factors that will affect it, and none of them have much to do with the NT. Crikey has a swing at the pundits and experts who called a massive ALP win in the NT before polls opened – they were guessing, with no information.

shauno 6:41 pm 11 Aug 08

The NT election had a lot of local issues like the speed limits on the open roads. They saw through the blatant lies by the labor government regarding the open road unlimited speed limits causing deaths. Where as the real factor was fatigue and alcohol as well as pedestrian deaths namely people sleeping on the roads. Which has been proven by the fact the road toll has increased since the open road speed limits were put in place. Also they remember the fairly incompetent Clare Martin years.

tap 5:59 pm 11 Aug 08

Agreed with Dalryk and Wide Boy Jake.

Wide Boy Jake 5:55 pm 11 Aug 08

“taking a booming economy and sending it bust in just six months”

This is the big lie currently being put around by Liberal supporters. During last year’s election campaign every economic expert predicted a major downturn due to the US sub-prime mortgage crisis and the credit crunch. It was predicted that the US would experience a recession and that we would be dragged down as well no matter who won the election here. In fact it was said by several analysts that last year’s election was the worst possible poll for anybody to win. Inflation and interest rates were already on the upswing several months before Rudd won the election.

dalryk 5:41 pm 11 Aug 08

Ooo, Ooo! can I be the first to call “Liberal Fanboi” on the OP?

I mean it’s one thing to post a piece analysing and dissecting the results of the NT election and pose the question as to its implications for the ACT, but comments like;

“taking a booming economy and sending it bust in just six months”

just REEK of blatant political bias, which in turn lead the uncommitted reader to completely discount any valid points the author may have otherwise raised.

Now personally I’m all for giving the current ALP soviet an electoral boot in the pants, but contrary to the OP’s assertions, it will be entirely because of local issues.

Sure in a *federal* by-election, people will rightfully look at national issues when deciding who to represent them in the national forum. But I fail to see any evidence that national issues had an impact on the NT election, nor do I think they will impact largely on the ACT election. Without wanting to overestimate the intelligence of the average voter, you’d have to be a bit stupid to confuse the two political spheres, and even more stupid to think that voting out a state government is going to have any effect on the policies of the federal government.

Jonathon Reynolds 5:39 pm 11 Aug 08

@beasley:
I recently fired up a similar story: http://the-riotact.com/?p=8318

I’ve been tracking the national media over the weekend for updates but until there hasn’t been any deep analysis of the real factors at play yet.

However a recurrent theme that seems to be popping up is that running a “presidential” style campaign based on your leader alone (e.g. Kevin 07) does not appear to have paid off for the NT ALP and from the early polling data I have previously been privy too would indicate a similar lack of effect for the ACT Liberals. http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/11/2330552.htm (see quote by political analyst Professor David Carment)

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