Labor Smashing on the Cards for ACT?

‘Talking up inflation’ – anyone who says this ridiculous buzz phrase has to be a Lib – what tripe. Who would ‘talk up inflation’, and how does one do so, unless of course you simply mean, doing things differently from the last mob? Unfortunately, the federal Liberals (so called) still insist on being petulant about being done out of their ‘entitlement’ to rule the nation. Sorry, the people have spoken, and no one will vote in the Libs till they stop sulking about the last election result.

jakez; i see you have expressed a strong opinion here about people who make political comment without being entirely honest about who they are; with reference to that would you care to comment on a certain prominent young liberal(coincidently named jake z……) who got busted critcising rudds campaign in a letter to the editor in the canberra times during the last federal election?

Just asking Beasley (if that is your real name) what would you be doing to fix the economy now?

As far as I can see part of the problem is the lack of skilled workers because there aren’t enough people to educate. Is this Bob Hawkes fault for not making people in the 1980’s frisky enough?

What could predicting the problems of banking regulation have meant we could have done something differently?

Its people like you that give good upstanding liberal voters a bad name.

Sorry that spin on GDE is baloney. In 2001 Carnell or Humphries (whichever was Chief Min at the time) promised a 4 lane GDE for around $50m. The Libs wanted it to go along the route where it is now. Labor went to the 2001 election promising to build a “Western” route, through the AIS grounds. The AIS got upset with half their carparks disappearing (ie: you couldn’t host big crowds anymore in the AIS arena if Stanhope got his way), so they objected. The NCA sided with AIS and said no to the Western route. A short time later Labor announce they will cut the number of lanes because of cost.

The after that the Greenies sue the ACT govt and the project is delayed further. Then Labor finally start building in 2004, after the project was meant to be finished and unsurprisingly the cost blows out a few more times again, due to mining boom and construction boom driving up prices.

It is always a cop-out when the Chief Minister blames the Greenies/Save the Ridge folk from O’Connor, when they sued after he’d downsized the road. And also a cop-out to blame the NCA and ipso facto the federal Liberals, when he didn’t need to attempt a Western route and could have stuck with the original Eastern one all along.

I’ve got a friend in TAMS who knows all the ins and outs who said they would have saved a packet if construction began in 2001 or 2002. And now the saga is starting all over again! My guess … wait for further blowouts.

I think Aurelius is referring to the great “eastern alignment versus western alignment” argument by which local political wonks excluded themselves from civilised society at the dawn of the millennium.

The NCA decided the matter in the end with many suspecting it was political pettyness by Liberal hacks in the organisation doing it out of spite.

Hey Beasley, I think 2/3rds of the public aren’t stupid enough to realise that this downturn in the economy has nothing to do with who is in charge.

It’s just a combination of high oil prices and the banks investing too much in dodgy American mortgage companies.

What’s your man Nelson got planned? Take 5c off the price of petrol?? That’ll save the world.

BTW, I’m not a Rudd fanboy. I wouldn’t say he’s doing a brilliant job, but the economy would be in the same state no matter who’s in charge.

mutley…again said :

Hey, I have noting against the Greens in general – just the Foskey kind! I even voted for Shane Rattenbury at least once in past ACT elections.

Isn’t Rattenbury even more of a nut than Foskey? We’d see Jarvis Bay used to house the ACT Navy so it can strike at the Japanese whale hunters!

Yeah, I’d love for us to open a big can of whopp-ass on the Japanese whalers!

Reply

Damn these italics!

beasley said :

@ all those who think the economy naturally was set up to fail from November 07: The Federal ALP knows that the community is upset with them. After giving the impression that they will do something about petrol, grocery, and interest rates, punter Joe is justifiably upset that the Government seems content just to “watch” prices rise. The ALP has sensibly pulled out of contesting upcoming federal by-elections and are not stupid enough to give more fuel to the trend of swings against them. Equally, talking up inflation, Emission trading concerns, and cutting solar rebates and taxing alcopops, has delivered the biggest downturn in confidence since the “recession we had to have”. This can only be slated at Rudd and Swann’s feet.

The punters are so upset that they have the Federal government ahead 57 – 43% two part preferred in the latest Newspoll. I’d hate to see them when they’re really angry 🙂

Hey, I have noting against the Greens in general – just the Foskey kind! I even voted for Shane Rattenbury at least once in past ACT elections.

Isn’t Rattenbury even more of a nut than Foskey? We’d see Jarvis Bay used to house the ACT Navy so it can strike at the Japanese whale hunters!

“Labor and Libs voted together on pragmatic stuff ”
And did the Greens also vote with them on said pragmatic stuff?

“So I guess my vote will have to suffice in cancelling out Mr Evil’s…

Ah, no it won’t. I vote at least twice at every election!”

LOL
Guess I’ll have to get my 4yo enrolled too then! 😉

Greens had the balance of power in the 5th assembly.

Labor and Libs voted together on pragmatic stuff and the Libs could vote with the Greens where principle was involved.

Gungahlin Al said :

You’re entitled to that opinion of course Evil.

But I’d be entirely comfortable with it.

Know plenty of Greens – people who care – about society, the environment, and yes the economy. Ditto some (but definitely not all) of the other minors/independents.

A so-called ‘hung’ parliament is in my opinion a far far brighter prospect than a continuation of a majority government – Labor or Liberal.

Hey, I have noting against the Greens in general – just the Foskey kind! I even voted for Shane Rattenbury at least once in past ACT elections.

Gungahlin Al said :

So I guess my vote will have to suffice in cancelling out Mr Evil’s…

Ah, no it won’t. I vote at least twice at every election!

Built on the route it was? Certainly (aided and abetted by the NCA). But built to just 2 lanes? I believe that little debacle lies entirely with Messrs Hargreaves and Stanhope Aurelius.

Ohhh indeed it can be.

“Greens with the balance of power?” It couldn’t be more wacko than it is now.

(Could it?)

Those who wish to cite the GDE as a failure because it’s one lane – I agree, it should be two from the beginning. But it was Liberal opposition to the road (both local and Federal) that meant it was built in the restricted way it was.

You’re entitled to that opinion of course Evil.

But I’d be entirely comfortable with it.

Know plenty of Greens – people who care – about society, the environment, and yes the economy. Ditto some (but definitely not all) of the other minors/independents.

A so-called ‘hung’ parliament is in my opinion a far far brighter prospect than a continuation of a majority government – Labor or Liberal.

So I guess my vote will have to suffice in cancelling out Mr Evil’s…

Greens with the balance of power?

if that happens – I’m leaving Canberra!

@ all those who think the economy naturally was set up to fail from November 07: The Federal ALP knows that the community is upset with them. After giving the impression that they will do something about petrol, grocery, and interest rates, punter Joe is justifiably upset that the Government seems content just to “watch” prices rise. The ALP has sensibly pulled out of contesting upcoming federal by-elections and are not stupid enough to give more fuel to the trend of swings against them. Equally, talking up inflation, Emission trading concerns, and cutting solar rebates and taxing alcopops, has delivered the biggest downturn in confidence since the “recession we had to have”. This can only be slated at Rudd and Swann’s feet.

How is it that Australia managed much bigger crises such as the Asian Economic Crisis, SARS, World Trade Centre, a US and Japanese recession, yet has no confidence we can get through our present world difficulties? Only one thing has changed and that is the people in charge of the economy.

Hopefully this gives everyone some more detail on why I posted comments such as I did and not get hysterical about OP bias.

@ Skidbladnir and jakez and others who feel my OP is biased: my interest’s state ‘politics’. The ALP is the Government of the day and will naturally attract the majority of criticism from me as they are governing! That said, I have also made posts about the Opposition abilities as well and will call a spade as I see it.

….Rant over 🙂

simbo said :

harley said :

I’ve said before I’m a pinko-lefty commie type… I just wish there was someone worthy to vote for. (and whoever suggested the Greens last time I said this can suck me!)

What would be good (As a pinko-lefty commie) would be for Labor to be a minority gubmint, with a smart right-leaning partner to keep them from going too far with the touchy-feely social justice programs. Sadly, I see the greens holding sway, and “negotiating” special interest things that only hippies care about.

I’m sorry, Harley, what kind of pinko-lefty-commie type are you if you don’t care about touchy-feely social justice programs?? Isn’t that meant to be the definition of a pinko-lefty-commie?

I said “too far”… There needs to be some – more than any right-winger has ever suggested, but not as many as the Greens would have us “enjoying”, whether we like it or not…

Skidbladnir said :

The thing to do with posts you suspect of being shills is to just go and check their posting history.
(Click on the name)

Beasley has previously brought us such wonders as:

Young Labor Pissup
Where to buy fireworks
Chief Minister Asleep at the Wheel
Celebrity spotting for 2020 Summit
Police being used by Simon Corbell to raise revenue
and
NSW Labor’s political donations

Good call Skid, that was the first thing I did when I read the post. 4 out of 6 topics are political. Now that in and of itself is no crime, however if you look at them they are all blatantly partisan. Alarm bells are ringing.

At least I’m open about my liberal party membership.

The thing to do with posts you suspect of being shills is to just go and check their posting history.
(Click on the name)

Beasley has previously brought us such wonders as:

Young Labor Pissup
Where to buy fireworks
Chief Minister Asleep at the Wheel
Celebrity spotting for 2020 Summit
Police being used by Simon Corbell to raise revenue
and
NSW Labor’s political donations

The NT has tiny electorates. It only takes a small number of voters to change their minds to create a major swing.

The ACT has multi-member electorates, with all the uncertainty and instability they bring.

It is virtually impossible to make an informed comparison between results in one parliament and the other.

jakez – please stop posting balanced, informed and considered views. Remember where you are.

verbalkint said :

haha, wow, that really was a terrible anaylsis of the NT results and ACT voting intentions in the article.

Surely the libs can arrange a better shill to post on here in future?

Sometimes I think the best way to go about something like attacking a party on RiotACT, would be to attack your own in a really really half arse manner.

The CT has Malcolm Mackerras’ predictions here (8 ALP, 8 LIB, 1 GRN). Malcolm’s recent form is pretty good.

haha, wow, that really was a terrible anaylsis of the NT results and ACT voting intentions in the article.

Surely the libs can arrange a better shill to post on here in future?

I loathe labor, but blaming them for world economic conditions is a bit unreasonable. That said, a bit more care and accountability in govt spending wouldn’t be unwelcome.

1, The NT election was fought on local issues.
2, The Rudd Government has been poor so far and its budget hurt my feelings greatly
3, The current economic downturn is not their fault.
4, Blaming banking deregulation for the credit crisis is spurious. If you knew the Government would bail you out, you would have little regard for risk as well.

I think people involved in campaigns across the board have figured a few things out in the last few months, namely;

1. the amount of people who read this site and therefore the reach this puppy has (well done RA overlords btw – this whole shebang is going great guns and I cant wait to see what you come up with next over a few pizzas and dodgy homebrew).

2. puff pieces in the Crimes and Schitty News do not make a dent in the voting Gen X / Y demographic that is going to be the telling tale in the next few elections not only in Canberra but nationwide, hence them popping up here having a spray along with the usual retrabates.

3. Knocking up a couple of paragraphs on a website is definately cheaper than electorate wide mailouts and a sneaky way to circumvent AEC electioneering guidelines, especially when running under a nom de plume.

harley said :

I’ve said before I’m a pinko-lefty commie type… I just wish there was someone worthy to vote for. (and whoever suggested the Greens last time I said this can suck me!)

What would be good (As a pinko-lefty commie) would be for Labor to be a minority gubmint, with a smart right-leaning partner to keep them from going too far with the touchy-feely social justice programs. Sadly, I see the greens holding sway, and “negotiating” special interest things that only hippies care about.

I’m sorry, Harley, what kind of pinko-lefty-commie type are you if you don’t care about touchy-feely social justice programs?? Isn’t that meant to be the definition of a pinko-lefty-commie?

Anyway, I think there’s a bit of liberal wish-fulfillment going on here, rather than accurate analysis – I think, yes, there are a couple of labour types that are probably going to look over their shoulder nervously (Andrew Barr, for instance, who wasn’t actually elected, and whose portfolios have had him personally representing a lot of the less popular government decisions)… but I think we’re probably headed back to minority government. Which is by no means a bad thing…

Don’t vote, it only encourages them!

I just wish there was someone worthy to vote for

It doesn’t matter who you vote for, you still get a politician.

RuffnReady said :

If there’s any reason to throw out this government I’d say it’s the GDE. In what kind of bizaro-world does it ever make sense to construct a 1-lane each way duel carriageway? A government that can allow mismanagement of that nature (ie. totally without any sense to it) needs a long hard looking at. When was that decision made? Has anyone ever been able to explain it?

PS I don’t use the GDE so I have no stake in it, I just think it was an incredibly, mind-numbingly stupid decision not to make it two-lanes from the beginning. How much will that cost the taxpayer?

I only moved up here last year, so don’t know the history, but who is responsible for the single lane bridge over Canberra Ave and Newcastle St on the Monaro? That makes even less sense to me.

I used it for 12 months till I moved into town. Whoever built it should have been lynched. (Maybe they were? – as I say, I don’t know the history)

But then the same mistake is made on GDE, just bigger… makes no sense…

I’ve said before I’m a pinko-lefty commie type… I just wish there was someone worthy to vote for. (and whoever suggested the Greens last time I said this can suck me!)

What would be good (As a pinko-lefty commie) would be for Labor to be a minority gubmint, with a smart right-leaning partner to keep them from going too far with the touchy-feely social justice programs. Sadly, I see the greens holding sway, and “negotiating” special interest things that only hippies care about.

Heh. “I’n sorry sir, you have a bad case of hippies”

If there’s any reason to throw out this government I’d say it’s the GDE. In what kind of bizaro-world does it ever make sense to construct a 1-lane each way duel carriageway? A government that can allow mismanagement of that nature (ie. totally without any sense to it) needs a long hard looking at. When was that decision made? Has anyone ever been able to explain it?

PS I don’t use the GDE so I have no stake in it, I just think it was an incredibly, mind-numbingly stupid decision not to make it two-lanes from the beginning. How much will that cost the taxpayer?

OP said: “the failing of their federal counterparts, ie: taking a booming economy and sending it bust in just six months.”

Now I am less than impressed with the populism and lack of clear long-term vision displayed by this government, but blaming them for destroying a boom economy is a complete joke. Winning the last election was a poisoned chalice given world economic conditions that were already on the downturn (primarily due to the credit crunch, peakoil supply, and the extended boom since 2002), and this government had nothing to do with the recession/depression we are going into. The world has been super-hot for far too long on the back of easy credit, that is the cause of the downturn – and who made that a possibility? Let’s see, maybe the conservatives who deregulated banking? Certainly the US credit crisis had it’s origins in the loosening of lending rules in Bush the Junior’s first term.

You vastly reduce your credibility when you use spurious adjunct claims like this one.

bd84 said :

Which rock are you living under? lol The idiotic blunders are coming thick and fast.. GDE

Has been delivered and now being improved. Not perfect but functioning.

Aboretum

Not a total disaster just yet – Nothing compared to the Futsal Slab white elephant.

Buses

Always have been, always will be. Majority of voters don’t catch buses.

Civic Parking

Majority of voters don’t park in Civic.

Mass school closures

Didn’t affect the majority of voters.

we are by no means a minority group judging by the diverse opinions on all subjects.

Isn’t that the very definition of a minority group.

KM, wouldn’t bother me at all. By the time the horse-trading is finished (as happens in a number of jurisdictions), the final result is often better than the original proposal. The exceptions were the hold that Harradine had in the Senate for far too long, and he was a religious fundamentalist who pushed a very narrow barrow, and the Democrats’ changes to the GST (still some doubt as to whether they worsened it, or simply changed it).

How does a Stanhope Govt governing with the support of two greens grab you guys as a concept. It could be the reality. Frightens the hell out of me.

bd84, you beat me while I was composing (as opposed to decomposing).

For the first time in a long while, I’d be happy, nay ecstatic, to see the ALP take the sort of thrashing you are suggesting. I just can’t see that happening – incumbency, donkey-voting, rabble opposition, presidential style Zed, and so forth, will mitigate against that, I fear.

hobbyhorse, I don’t see what the Libs could possibly do between now and then to make the difference. I think Thumper and BB68 have it about right – unfortunately another four years of Sonic, but hopefully with some sort of opposition that will keep them honest (well, at least more honest than they have been for quite a long time).

I’m no Malcolm Mackerras but I predict Labor returned with a minority government.

Will Labor learn from the drubbing? No, they now are incapable of humility.

Will the Libs learn from the swing away from Labor? Hopefully yes, but I fear not.

Deano said :

Morgan said :

I think the Jury is out on the opposition being better.

I don’t think the jury has any doubts at the moment about the lack of capability in the opposition ranks.

Apart from a few noisy minorities, Labor isn’t that unpopular with the general population. Whilst they haven’t done anything outstanding, they have avoided making any of the idiotic blunders previous governments have made.

Like Thumper, I’ll predict a Labor return, with the Liberals losing seats to the independents and minor issue parties.

Which rock are you living under? lol The idiotic blunders are coming thick and fast.. GDE, Aboretum, Buses, Civic Parking, Mass school closures need I say more? But then there are idiots on boths sides.

From accounts of most people I know and the general feeling of the people on here is that at most about 30% of people would support the current Government, and with a even more suitable opposition it would likely be even less, and we are by no means a minority group judging by the diverse opinions on all subjects.

If anything, Labor are more likely to lose seats to the minority parties basically because they hold a majority which is consistent with what happened in the NT where Labor held 19 of 25 and lost 6 seats to an opposition which previously had 4 seats.

If Labor seats don’t fall liberal in the ACT, they will go independent/group and the Liberal seats are more likely to change between party members in the ACT because of our voting system.

Given this I think it’s far more likely to be a hung parliament as people err on caution for the liberals, but as the people here want accountability more than anything else and judging by the love of stanhopeless, I think we’re more likely to see a minority Liberal Government.

Damned italics….

Deano said :

Morgan said :

Apart from a few noisy minorities, Labor isn’t that unpopular with the general population. Whilst they haven’t done anything outstanding, they have avoided making any of the idiotic blunders previous governments have made.

Like Thumper, I’ll predict a Labor return, with the Liberals losing seats to the independents and minor issue parties.

Ditto that for me too.

I predict a massive swing against Labor and if the Liberal Party continues to perform well it will pick up the seats it needs to form government.

Morgan said :

I think the Jury is out on the opposition being better.

I don’t think the jury has any doubts at the moment about the lack of capability in the opposition ranks.

Apart from a few noisy minorities, Labor isn’t that unpopular with the general population. Whilst they haven’t done anything outstanding, they have avoided making any of the idiotic blunders previous governments have made.

Like Thumper, I’ll predict a Labor return, with the Liberals losing seats to the independents and minor issue parties.

You really don’t have any basis for your claim that the NT election was fought on national issues, rather than local, do you?

Local issues are the ones I am factoring in for the ACT election, that’s for sure. And I heard NT ran on local issues also – ie, some gas plant in Darwin Harbour – so I would say they are more likely to be disgruntled with the local mob.

I voted for ALP federally, but damned if I am voting them in again locally after the abysmal performance we have had on a myriad of areas (all listed before). For me, they are totally separate.

Re federal issues, I’m happy with Kev so far. He seems to have struck a balance about a lot of issues and done some good things (eg Kyoto, Apology, 2020). No one can honestly blame Kev (who has only been in for such a short time) for international oil/share market issues.

As Bob McMullen said the other day in a lecture there are three conditions for a change of government, in order.

1. Electorate entertains idea of change

2. Government is Bad

3. Opposition is better

I think we are ready for a change, I think the Government is bad, but I think the Jury is out on the opposition being better. Hey!!! I wonder what Carnell is up to, do you think she wants another crack at it?

I don’t think we needed an NT poll to tell us that the ACT election of this year will be a helluva lot closer than 2004.

The NT election said a lot of things, mostly about that election in the NT. Governments that stil have a year to run should make a case for going early – and Labor didn’t. Chief Ministers with months on the clock are being presumptuous by running on experience (see also Unsworth in NSW and Corcoran in SA). An election apparently about nothing will be unlikely to get people excited. A campaign based on issues within a limited area of the whole electorate runs a risk of alienating everyone outside that area. An opposition on a historically low base will usually improve. A government that the media tips to win in a landslide will probably get a backhander. Turnout in the NT varies a lot, and this was apparently pretty low.

Not much of this will apply in the ACT, I think. There are a swag of factors that will affect it, and none of them have much to do with the NT. Crikey has a swing at the pundits and experts who called a massive ALP win in the NT before polls opened – they were guessing, with no information.

The NT election had a lot of local issues like the speed limits on the open roads. They saw through the blatant lies by the labor government regarding the open road unlimited speed limits causing deaths. Where as the real factor was fatigue and alcohol as well as pedestrian deaths namely people sleeping on the roads. Which has been proven by the fact the road toll has increased since the open road speed limits were put in place. Also they remember the fairly incompetent Clare Martin years.

Agreed with Dalryk and Wide Boy Jake.

“taking a booming economy and sending it bust in just six months”

This is the big lie currently being put around by Liberal supporters. During last year’s election campaign every economic expert predicted a major downturn due to the US sub-prime mortgage crisis and the credit crunch. It was predicted that the US would experience a recession and that we would be dragged down as well no matter who won the election here. In fact it was said by several analysts that last year’s election was the worst possible poll for anybody to win. Inflation and interest rates were already on the upswing several months before Rudd won the election.

Ooo, Ooo! can I be the first to call “Liberal Fanboi” on the OP?

I mean it’s one thing to post a piece analysing and dissecting the results of the NT election and pose the question as to its implications for the ACT, but comments like;

“taking a booming economy and sending it bust in just six months”

just REEK of blatant political bias, which in turn lead the uncommitted reader to completely discount any valid points the author may have otherwise raised.

Now personally I’m all for giving the current ALP soviet an electoral boot in the pants, but contrary to the OP’s assertions, it will be entirely because of local issues.

Sure in a *federal* by-election, people will rightfully look at national issues when deciding who to represent them in the national forum. But I fail to see any evidence that national issues had an impact on the NT election, nor do I think they will impact largely on the ACT election. Without wanting to overestimate the intelligence of the average voter, you’d have to be a bit stupid to confuse the two political spheres, and even more stupid to think that voting out a state government is going to have any effect on the policies of the federal government.

@beasley:
I recently fired up a similar story: http://the-riotact.com/?p=8318

I’ve been tracking the national media over the weekend for updates but until there hasn’t been any deep analysis of the real factors at play yet.

However a recurrent theme that seems to be popping up is that running a “presidential” style campaign based on your leader alone (e.g. Kevin 07) does not appear to have paid off for the NT ALP and from the early polling data I have previously been privy too would indicate a similar lack of effect for the ACT Liberals. http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/11/2330552.htm (see quote by political analyst Professor David Carment)