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The good, the bad, and the hilarious – election wrap-up

By Chris Mordd Richards - 5 July 2016 13

Leaders of the world

So, it’s been a crazy 72 hours. I’d like to start with a quote from a friend of a friend on social media, which sums up the current situation quite well.

”Well done Australia

Before we get into the heavy analysis of the results themselves, lets take a look at the lighter side of the past 3 days first.

First up, was Bill Shorten early on election day, demonstrating a unique method of eating a sausage sandwich, which quickly started trending across social media, as Australians nation wide gawked at Shorten’s extremely awkward eating style.

”Bill Shorten sausage

Next up, was Laurie Oakes on election day evening, who undertook an epic troll of SportsBet, in what has become known as Tiegate. SportsBet had a bet running on what colour tie Laurie would wear in the election broadcast, Yellow, Black, Green, Gold, Blue, or Other. So Laurie wore all six colours during the night, changing out ties in between cutaways and breaks.

Laurie Oaks Tie

In the end, SportsBet tweeted that they were paying out on all bets.

Sportsbet Tweet

The Australian Young Greens summed up the overall situation for Turnbull on Sunday quite well with this gif:

Turnbulls plan

As to the more serious side of things, first of all lets look at the current tallies being reported by the AEC and the major media outlets, which demonstrates just how hard this election is to call still at this moment.

The AEC as of Monday night 10:30pm, is showing these results for the House of Representatives: Liberal/National Coalition with 67 seats; Labor with 71 seats, Greens with 1 seat, Katter’s party with 1 seat, NXT with 2 seats, and 2 independents, with 6 seats undecided.

Fairfax is reporting the following: Coalition has won 70 seats, Labor 67 seats and the Greens one seat, with Independents and Minor parties claiming five. Seven seats are too close to call.

Newscorp is reporting: Coalition with 65 seats; Labor with 67 seats, Greens with 1 seat, Katter’s party with 1 seat, NXT with 1 seat, and 2 independents, with 13 seats undecided.

The ABC is reporting: Coalition with 68 seats; Labor with 67 seats, Greens with 1 seat, Katter’s party with 1 seat, NXT with 1 seat, and 2 independents, with 10 seats undecided.

I think it is safe to say at this point that the Coalition and Labor have won at least 67 seats each, but any more than that is undetermined until counting resumes tomorrow (Tuesday). I have also seen some media in the last 24 hours reporting 2 seats to the Greens, as well as the 2 to NXT the AEC is reporting, most outlets though are still only crediting 1 seat each at the moment.

A few major Liberal members have lost seats in this election or failed to reclaim their seat as expected, including young Wyatt Roy and Sophie Mirabella, along with the complete loss of Tasmanian seats to the Labor party.

As to the Senate results, we don’t know much yet but a few things are confirmed so far. Labor and the Coalition are both on around 30% of the 1st preference votes at the moment. It looks like the Greens have retained all but 2 current seats, but have picked up a new Senator as well, for a net loss of 1 seat. NXT is expected to pick up 3 or 4 seats, One Nation is also likely to take 2 or 3 seats – with Pauline Hanson confirmed already. Derryn Hinch is likely to make it in at this stage, as is Family First’s Bob Day. David Leyonhjelm is likely to take a seat, and Jacqui Lambie has retained her seat.

It is going to be an entertaining six years to come, I think I will be tuning into live Senate coverage a lot more often from now on. Both Pauline Hanson and Derryn Hinch are well aware of the parliamentary immunity granted to them in the chamber, and both plan to make full use of the privilege to say things that would get them sued into bankruptcy if said publicly anywhere else. Expect to see some epic slanging matches not just between these two, but between these two and other entertaining and passionate Senators who will also be in the chamber with them. This will be fun to watch for sure, even if at times we may want to look away in horror or disgust at what we have done.

In the ACT, all the mainstream media has already called the second Senate seat for Zed Seselja already. This is despite the fact that he is 2 points short of the 1st preference count quota he achieved last time around on the current counting for this years results, and the seat is still quite likely to go to preferences. If it does, it will be a close race once again between Liberal and the Greens for the seat. There has been a swing against the Greens slightly in the Senate, similar to last time, but there has also been a significant swing against Liberal in general this time, so I think the mainstream media is being premature in calling the seat for Zed already.

Whether the Coalition or Labor will be able to form minority government is anyone’s guess at this point, both are just as likely as each other currently, with Shorten declaring he won’t include the Greens in a coalition, and NXT declaring it won’t join a Coalition with Labor. These statements are often made though, and in the past a different tone tends to be taken behind closed doors once the reality really sets in for all players involved. Don’t expect any of the parties to abide by their current statements on this as the endless rounds of negotiations are only just beginning.

Bill Shorten’s leadership is no longer in doubt, and Labor has put away the knives and is looking towards forming minority government. Malcolm Turnbull’s future on the other hand is very much in doubt, with at least 1 major Liberal luminary already publicly calling for his replacement. Richard di Natale’s job as leader of the Greens is safe it appears.

Counting for the House of Representatives resumes Tuesday morning, and we will know within a few days what the final make up of the House will be, but it’s unlikely that will result in us knowing who will actually form government and lead the country for possibly weeks to come still or longer. A hung parliament is all but certain at this point, along with an even more hostile Senate than before.

Image sources: Mordd – IndyMedia, Facebook, Twitter, Youtube, Australian Young Greens.

What’s Your opinion?


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13 Responses to
The good, the bad, and the hilarious – election wrap-up
switch 4:07 pm 07 Jul 16
HenryBG 2:41 pm 07 Jul 16

Maya123 said :

Apparently not. There are alarming reports of polling booths running out of ballot papers! FFS, the AEC has the roll, surely they have a good idea how many ballot papers will be required?

Source?

I heard some polling booths ran out of out-of-area ballot papers, which isn’t something the AEC can necessarily plan for.

Maya123 said :

Or just print them out there and then if they run out.

Oh yeah, that couldn’t possibly go wrong could it…..

I am a Rabbit™ 12:42 pm 07 Jul 16

rommeldog56 said :

Deref said :

The fact we are scratching our heads as to the result, and the reporting media have all different figures – suggests there is something not quite right somewhere in the chain.

The media use prediction software programmed around the statistics current and past trends. This software varies from outlet to outlet, which is why they report different results. To put it simply, the AEC report the actual results, while most of the major media (such as the ABC) outlets report their predicted result. If you want the figures without prediction, you should look at the AEC website.

http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDefault-20499.htm

switch 12:29 pm 07 Jul 16

rommeldog56 said :

At this stage I have no confidence in the AEC running the election process. After losing a boxful of votes you would think they would have had 3 years to sort things out.

Apparently not. There are alarming reports of polling booths running out of ballot papers! FFS, the AEC has the roll, surely they have a good idea how many ballot papers will be required? Or just print them out there and then if they run out.

Electronic voting is a wonderful idea that has had p#ss-poor implementation in the examples I’ve seen so far (last ACT election comes to mind).

Btw, were the queues longer than last time for everyone else?

steveu 12:05 pm 07 Jul 16

Deref said :

Does anyone agree with me?

At this stage I have no confidence in the AEC running the election process. After losing a boxful of votes you would think they would have had 3 years to sort things out. The fact we are scratching our heads as to the result, and the reporting media have all different figures – suggests there is something not quite right somewhere in the chain.
Personally I would think electronic voting at a federal level would have been sorted out years ago.

Nightshade 7:50 am 07 Jul 16

madelini said :

Ok, Zed is currently on 0.9966 of his quota. I am not 100% sure if the AEC is finished counting first preferences yet, but I am guessing not, in which case I will concede that I was wrong on Zed not winning his seat outright and going to preferences again. Still it was damn close, and Zed should be careful to pay more attention to his electorate this time round unless he wants to risk losing the seat next time.

The Senate count on the AEC website only appears to be showing votes per party at this stage, not votes per candidate. We don’t yet know that all the first preference Liberal votes went to Zed and not to Jane Hiatt. Obviously he will get all the above-the-line Liberal votes, but given his unpopularity with many people, I wouldn’t assume he got all the below-the-line ones.

gooterz 1:19 am 07 Jul 16

madelini said :

Ok, Zed is currently on 0.9966 of his quota. I am not 100% sure if the AEC is finished counting first preferences yet, but I am guessing not, in which case I will concede that I was wrong on Zed not winning his seat outright and going to preferences again. Still it was damn close, and Zed should be careful to pay more attention to his electorate this time round unless he wants to risk losing the seat next time.

Doesn’t look like Absent votes or prepoll votes are added yet. Either that something is wrong with the numbers.

Mordd 12:14 am 07 Jul 16

Ok, Zed is currently on 0.9966 of his quota. I am not 100% sure if the AEC is finished counting first preferences yet, but I am guessing not, in which case I will concede that I was wrong on Zed not winning his seat outright and going to preferences again. Still it was damn close, and Zed should be careful to pay more attention to his electorate this time round unless he wants to risk losing the seat next time.

Mordd 12:06 pm 06 Jul 16

gooterz said :

Re shorten and the supposed awkward eating of a sausage sandwich. The bloody thing was a sausage in a bread roll not a sausage sandwich. So really being a roll he ate the thing the normal way, carefully. Sausage sandwich on the other hand it would be a no brainer.

Either way, as one of his own advisor tweeted on the day “From the end next time mate… always from the end” or something to that effect.

JC 8:26 pm 05 Jul 16

Re shorten and the supposed awkward eating of a sausage sandwich. The bloody thing was a sausage in a bread roll not a sausage sandwich. So really being a roll he ate the thing the normal way, carefully. Sausage sandwich on the other hand it would be a no brainer.

Masquara 6:55 pm 05 Jul 16

Deref said :

Watching the ABC Election coverage it was interesting to watch the Petrie ballot box being emptied onto the table. Antony Green commented on one green ballot paper fall on the floor, which he trusted would be picked up.

I am sure that I saw a green ballot paper still in the box when the official put the box back & folded the top. She did not inspect inside the ballot box, maybe stage fright from the TV cameras & lights.

Does anyone agree with me?

Yes I saw that too! What a fail! They didn’t bother to check the inside of the box as they were putting it back in the corner. And the staff who were supposed to be supervising the box return didn’t bother to check either. No wonder AEC lost 1,000 votes last election!

aussielyn 4:29 pm 05 Jul 16

Watching the ABC Election coverage it was interesting to watch the Petrie ballot box being emptied onto the table. Antony Green commented on one green ballot paper fall on the floor, which he trusted would be picked up.

I am sure that I saw a green ballot paper still in the box when the official put the box back & folded the top. She did not inspect inside the ballot box, maybe stage fright from the TV cameras & lights.

Does anyone agree with me?

Zan 10:24 am 05 Jul 16

Re Laurie’s tie. He kept spilling food and drinks so had to change. Loving the challenge of a hung parliament. Maybe they will learn that we can’t stand their sledging at each other. Govern the nation, stop point scoring. Ignore the gutter media. Learn to negotiate for the betterment of the country.

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