Who will win the 2020 ACT Election?

The elephant in the room of course is the total unelectability of Liberal leader Alistair Coe. Paul Costigan was too polite to mention Coe by name but his reference to the lack of ‘a well-led’ alternative government speaks volumes.

Coe is totally out of his depth. He is dot-point driven and unable to speak confidently and passionately about any issues of concern to most Canberrans. Virtually his whole working career has been spent in the Assembly and boy does it show. After more than years in the Assembly he has nothing to show in terms of policy direction. As Shadow Treasurer he was invisible.

Few in the Canberra Liberals, MLAs included, believe they can win under Coe, and speculation is rife about potential replacement ‘dream teams’. Some MLAs don’t wish to spend another 7 years in Opposition and are already considering jumping ship at or before the next election.

One MLA describes Coe as a ‘campaigning machine’ but the awful performance of the Canberra Liberals in the last election reflects badly on Coe and the party hacks he has selected to run the party machine. There has not been an experienced party professional running the Liberals’ campaign effort for years. Unless the Party makes radical changes it is will still be in Opposition in 2030.

If Coe is pushed or jumps before the election it will be interesting to see what he does next. I can’t see Zed standing aside in a hurry!

Paul, I believe your somewhat benevolent assessment of Light Rail as an issue casts you as somewhat Labor-leaning. What about an alternative take? You could perhaps excuse Stage 1 as it is triggering a real estate boom along its Northbourne Ave route, with the resulting explosion in apartment numbers feeding into what is shaping as Barr’s “rivers of gold” budget repair strategy. But Light Rail was still the lowest returning of the options assessed in the initial study conducted by and for the government. As for Stage 2, if ever I’ve seen a project desperately in search of a business plan, this is it. Because of Stage 2, I see Light Rail as a long-term drain on ACT finances, thus presenting an opportunity for the Libs to say how they’d do it better.

Planning and development is set on one path only, that is of turning large parts of Canberra into concrete jungles, leaving little room for affordable family homes with backyards. What is the Liberals’ vision?

We’re all groaning under stupendous rates increases as well as being run dry by the excessive increases in other fees and charges in recent years. At the same time, at least in my area, our municipal presentation is both shabby and shameful. What is the Liberals’ alternative budget vision and, within this, do they have a strategy for helping us feel proud of our city once more and also to feel we can actually afford to live here?

Finally, why put all the pressure on the Liberals? They haven’t been in power for 17 years now, yet people seem to be able to say unambiguously they’re a bad bet for vague ideological reasons. We’ve become effectively a one-party state and need to start resolving to vote for change.

The Liberals are the ones so concerned about excessive spending that they want to closely examine the cost of painting lines on roads. In the meantime they supported increased election funding (dollars per vote given to candidates) and MLA salaries.

They are so busy attacking the Labor Party’s policies and having internal crises that they have no time to formulate meaningful policies of their own.

The reality is that Canberra is a prosperous place, and for all its faults Labor does have a clear policy platform and a vision for Canberra. If the Liberals ever want to get elected, they need to actually give people a reason to vote for them rather than expecting to get elected by default.

The next election result may depend on whether Andrew “I hate journalists” Barr is still Chief Minister.

Let’s start with the contention that the Liberals should have won 2016. In 2012 they won 38.9% of first preferences vs the Labor-Green coalition on 49.6%, a deficit of 10.7%. In 2016 it was 36.7% vs 48.7%, a deficit of 12%. Rather than the needed swing, the Libs went backwards.

On the tram, polling reportedly showed that significant numbers of Labor voters had serious reservations about it, so it was a legitimate area to target, but those reservations didn’t result in a swing to the opposition, probably meaning that too much emphasis was placed on it and not enough on other areas. I’d suggest the conservative coup against Humphries and Liberal policies federally probably accounted for the drop in the Liberal vote.

Looking at the figures it would appear that the government was not really on the nose in 2016. If they had been, surely there would have been a bigger drop in their primary vote that would have gone to minor parties if not to the opposition. I struggle to see how the Libs could have won government in 2016 given the resilience of the government vote even in the face of the problems mentioned, but it certainly could and should have been closer. The Libs didn’t do enough in 2013-2015 to reassure the public they were a safe alternative.

Since the election the government has provided lots of ammunition, but the opposition haven’t used it effectively. I wonder if Coe, as a young social conservative whose career has been all politics, can appeal to enough voters. Especially if Barr goes and takes some of the stink with him. I vote Liberal but have reservations about him, so how will swinging voters choose him? Right now the government should still be 10% in front of the opposition.

The Liberals will lose again. For three reasons:

1) Canberra usually votes Labor.
2) The Liberals in the ACT rarely seem to be able to portray themselves as a credible alternative. They can’t seem to do anything really positive and don’t even exist until an election is close (getting them to attend community council type meetings is almost impossible).
3) In the Labor/Greens coalition we actually have both sides of politics leaving little room for the Liberals. Labor has a track record of jumping into bed with the big developers (i.e. a traditional Liberal trait) regardless of the cost to the community and the Greens are driven by their ideological left wing agenda. In theory the Liberals could do well by picking a path down the middle, but that would require skill and effort.

It would be nice to see a Liberal government in. Even if they don’t do a good job it may make Labor improve their act. If the Liberals lose the next election they should consider officially changing their name to “The ACT Opposition”.