Increase in Canberra unemployment rate

wildturkeycanoe said :

davo101 said :

wildturkeycanoe said :

0.1% with a population of say 380,000 means an extra 38 people out of work in the 13642 already unemployed. A drop in the ocean once the budget cut backs come into effect. I’d say everyone’s job seeking is only going to become even more difficult from here on, thanks Tony..

As I pointed out earlier the unemployment statistics are based on surveys, as a result the difference between two surveys has a uncertainty range around it. In the case of the ACT the 95% confidence interval is 0.6 percentage points ie: we can be 95% sure that the change in the unemployment rate is somewhere between -0.5% and 0.7%.

I have never been surveyed to see if I am employed or unemployed. Surely the figures would be based on actual unemployment figures from the likes of Centrelink?
Apparently not, they do a sample of 0.32% of the civilian population. Wow, that really tells the whole story doesn’t it. That equates to 1216 homes in Canberra if the defense personnel were included. Such a broad ranging sample group really tells the story eh? I still don’t believe statistics like this when it’s like being given a piece of cotton and you have to tell everyone what the dress looks like. Pure guesswork.

Appearances and personal experience is what most of us understand, but may not represent the overall. There is a certain portion of samples, randomly taken, that can, at a certain volume enough, up to stated probabilities (at least they state them, product advertisers rarely do), be representative of the overall. A statistician could explain that better than I. Is there a statistician in the house? Tell me if I’m explaining this right.

Put it this way, ABS is good enough that you could, under some (illegitimate insider trading) circumstances, make a fortune off it it. Until you get busted!

wildturkeycanoe said :

I have never been surveyed to see if I am employed or unemployed. Surely the figures would be based on actual unemployment figures from the likes of Centrelink?
Apparently not, they do a sample of 0.32% of the civilian population. Wow, that really tells the whole story doesn’t it. That equates to 1216 homes in Canberra if the defense personnel were included. Such a broad ranging sample group really tells the story eh? I still don’t believe statistics like this when it’s like being given a piece of cotton and you have to tell everyone what the dress looks like. Pure guesswork.

Provided the sample is unbiased there’s no problem at all, you can calculate a confidence interval to any degree of certainty that you may chose – usually 95%.

davo101 said :

wildturkeycanoe said :

0.1% with a population of say 380,000 means an extra 38 people out of work in the 13642 already unemployed. A drop in the ocean once the budget cut backs come into effect. I’d say everyone’s job seeking is only going to become even more difficult from here on, thanks Tony..

As I pointed out earlier the unemployment statistics are based on surveys, as a result the difference between two surveys has a uncertainty range around it. In the case of the ACT the 95% confidence interval is 0.6 percentage points ie: we can be 95% sure that the change in the unemployment rate is somewhere between -0.5% and 0.7%.

I have never been surveyed to see if I am employed or unemployed. Surely the figures would be based on actual unemployment figures from the likes of Centrelink?
Apparently not, they do a sample of 0.32% of the civilian population. Wow, that really tells the whole story doesn’t it. That equates to 1216 homes in Canberra if the defense personnel were included. Such a broad ranging sample group really tells the story eh? I still don’t believe statistics like this when it’s like being given a piece of cotton and you have to tell everyone what the dress looks like. Pure guesswork.

wildturkeycanoe said :

0.1% with a population of say 380,000 means an extra 38 people out of work in the 13642 already unemployed. A drop in the ocean once the budget cut backs come into effect. I’d say everyone’s job seeking is only going to become even more difficult from here on, thanks Tony..

As I pointed out earlier the unemployment statistics are based on surveys, as a result the difference between two surveys has a uncertainty range around it. In the case of the ACT the 95% confidence interval is 0.6 percentage points ie: we can be 95% sure that the change in the unemployment rate is somewhere between -0.5% and 0.7%.

0.1% with a population of say 380,000 means an extra 38 people out of work in the 13642 already unemployed. A drop in the ocean once the budget cut backs come into effect. I’d say everyone’s job seeking is only going to become even more difficult from here on, thanks Tony..

report on the figures attached to under-employment?

Because you’ll have to take into account the population in that big central building in Canberra, and then realise that that will play havoc with the figure?

Unemployment remains steady, but why do they never report on the figures attached to under-employment?