Will Leanne Castley last the distance in the Canberra Liberals hot seat?

What cost Elizabeth Lee the Liberal leadership? Was it her reaching out to the Greens after the election? Was it her brainsnap before the election? Was she just too moderate for a mostly conservative party room? Or did it simply come down to personality and her management style?

The fact is the Liberal vote went backward when voters were actually looking for alternatives after 23 years years of Labor or Labor/Green rule. Those elusive votes went to independents of a progressive bent, not to the Libs.

The party remains on nine seats and will be outgunned again in the Legislative Assembly, although it might be able to forge alliances on individual issues.

It’s a result that demanded change, but the question is, is this the change that’s needed?

Leanne Castley was a big improver in the last term, becoming more polished as it wore on. She is personable, warm and loved in her home electorate of Yerrabi.

But as her Health counterpart Rachel Stephen-Smith noted on radio yesterday (31 October), she hasn’t necessarily been across the policy.

And she will need to be, up against wonks like Ms Stephen-Smith, a possible future Chief Minister, and Chief Minister Andrew Barr, both of whom have years of political experience on her.

No one knows how Ms Castley will perform in the constant media glare, carrying the hopes of her party on her shoulders.

She has identified a deficiency in party messaging because their policies are not making the sort of impact they hoped for. That burden will rest mostly with her unless she intends to delegate more to her front bench, in particular her deputy, Jeremy Hanson.

Mr Hanson says he was happy to accept the deal Ms Castley offered and has now put his baton back in the knapsack. That remains to be seen.

She’s the boss, he says, but there is already speculation, vehemently denied, that he will make another move sometime during the term.

However, the strategy could be for Ms Castley to be the friendly face of the party, leaving the more experienced Mr Hanson to do the tough work of taking on Mr Barr, who acknowledges him as his most formidable opponent.

Whatever the case, Ms Castley will need to lean on her deputy, at least in the beginning. The fact is that she will hold no fears for Mr Barr.

Labor has already branded the move a shift back to the right for the Liberals, a position that for many makes them unviable. But both Ms Castley and Mr Hanson want to dispel those fears, saying their focus will be on the basic issues that matter to Canberrans, not pursuing settled issues such as voluntary assisted dying and abortion access. Those topics are just not on their agenda.

In fact, they want to put to bed all this talk about factional wars in the Canberra Liberals and present a united and pragmatic face.

But if that was the case, then why hasn’t arguably the party’s most popular MLA, Mark Parton, been drafted to lead it? It was only he and Mr Barr who topped 9000 votes in their respective electorates

An excellent media performer and communicator, the former radio host is considered to be a moderate (although so was Ms Lee and that didn’t seem to help), cuts across party lines and lives in Tuggeranong, where the Liberal vote was highest.

He did contest the deputy leadership but that was a done deal.

Whether he actually wants to be party leader is another issue.

Mr Hanson says Ms Castley is the future of the party, but she faces a steep learning curve, and it is a long time until the next election. It will be interesting to see if she lasts the distance.