Early election? Probably not ... or maybe

I’ll start this by stressing that I could obviously be totally wrong, but let me put up the case as to why I don’t think Australians will be going to the polls anytime soon.

The next federal election is due by May next year, and almost everyone is abuzz with talk of an early one – a date in February or March, perhaps.

To put it bluntly, that’s pretty much it in a nutshell why I don’t think we’re going early – because everyone is saying we are.

Here’s my reasoning.

So many people are insisting we are headed for an early election because that’s the message the government wants out there and it is, indeed, also pushing that line.

Not officially, of course. Anthony Albanese has been keen to publicly stress the May deadline while also saying he’ll “work backwards” from that date (just to keep the flames burning).

The Prime Minister keeps telling the media to calm down with all the speculation while secretly revelling in the fact he’s being constantly asked about it.

Behind the scenes, the Labor machine is making sure its people are on full alert for an early election.

Word has gone out from headquarters to the branches; backbenchers have had a few calls from the party hierarchy.

“Don’t tell anyone, but we’re very likely to be going early.”

“Be prepared for a February election.”

The amount of calls and encounters I’ve had from party operatives ‘in the know’ who insist there’ll be an early election is in itself enough for me to have serious doubts there actually will be.

Some of these party loyalists – grassroots campaigners, branch-level stalwarts and even some of the backbench – have swallowed the line they are being fed.

The party knows many of them won’t be keeping that message secret despite the number of warnings to stay mum about it.

Then there are those who know it’s all likely a ruse but are happy to propagate the ‘word’ and be used as pawns in the grand scheme of political strategising.

Others know full well it’s all a game at this stage and are key players in feeding the speculation and building false expectations.

But why would the government want the word out that an election is about to be called when, in fact, it’s actually not?

Simple – it’s a distraction.

The more the speculation builds that there will be an early election, the more the Opposition has to prepare for such a scenario should it play out that way.

Instead of channelling all its energy into fighting Labor on policy at this stage in the election cycle, the Coalition has to divert considerable effort into preparing for an election campaign that might (and might not) be called any week now.

Meanwhile, Labor can get on with announcing policy after policy and be seen to be getting things done.

It’s not quite working to plan – Peter Dutton is doing a pretty good job at criticising almost everything the government is putting forward.

But he’s had enough of the faux campaign and is bursting for the election proper, which is another reason to keep the speculation going.

The longer this ‘anytime now’ game plays out, the more frustrated the Opposition gets, and the more chance of it peaking too early.

We can see that frustration already in the way Dutton and some of his front bench keep goading the PM with challenges to call the election now.

The Coalition wants an election sooner rather than later, and that’s enough reason for the PM to drag it out longer.

It’s not a new scenario at all. This sort of chessboard manoeuvring happens every time a federal election approaches – months ahead of it.

The truth of it, though, is that elections in Australia are usually held after a government has run its full term.

When elections are called early, it often (but not always) comes back to bite the butt of the PM who called it before it was due.

Albanese knows all this, and so do the party bosses who will influence his decision on when to send us all back to the ballot boxes.

As I said, this is just one theory, and I could be proven to be wrong.

But my guess is Albo will sit it out and hang on to power as long as he can while hoping there’s an interest rate cut coming and an overall improvement in the polls for himself and his struggling party.