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Threat to Seselja real: Rattenbury

By Charlotte Harper - 22 October 2015 56

rattenbury

Liberal Senator Zed Seselja faces a real threat from just-announced Greens candidate Christina Hobbs because Labor Senator Katy Gallagher will attract a higher vote for Labor than was the case at the last election, according to ACT Greens MLA Shane Rattenbury.
“Those middle-of-the-road voters who move between the Labor and the Liberal parties will be strongly attracted to the Labor Party given Senator Gallagher’s popularity,” Mr Rattenbury said at the announcement of the Greens Federal candidates.
“The great challenge for Zed Seselja is actually getting to the quota, getting to that 33%. We saw last time that that was a very near issue, and certainly from a Greens point of view, once Senator Seselja goes below that threshold for winning that seat in the ACT, that ups our chances of getting [Ms Hobbs] across the line, particularly if we’re successful in securing Labor Party preferences.
“We have a fantastic Federal Election candidate team to run a strong campaign against Zed Seselja who is dragging Canberra backwards on so many issues that our community cares about.”
Australian Greens Leader Richard Di Natale was also at the announcement and said Canberrans had a real choice at the upcoming Federal election.
“They can choose a Liberal Senator who has threatened to move even further to the right than the rest of his party by tearing down our racial discrimination laws, or Greens candidate Christina Hobbs who is committed to standing up for our diverse community, genuine action on global warming and economic policies that support the whole community,” he said.
Ms Hobbs said there were many Canberrans who did not feel represented by the existing ACT Senators.
“Senator Zed Seselja is on the extreme right of his own conservative party. He failed to stand up for the people of Canberra when his old boss Tony Abbott gutted our public service, and he’s made it clear that he’s determined to keep pushing his own ultra-conservative agenda,” she said.

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56 Responses to
Threat to Seselja real: Rattenbury
Skyring 6:55 pm 23 Oct 15

rubaiyat said :

The Greens just missed out on a senate seat last time so it depends on the publics mood next time. But they do have a chance.

Not true. 246,742 formal votes were cast. A quota is (FVC/3)+1 = 82,248 votes needed for election.
ALP’s Kate Lundy received 84,974 first preference votes, so was elected first.
Libs’ Zed Seselja received 81,613 first preference votes, needing 635 votes to make quota, which he did easliy.
The Greens candidate received 47,553 votes, which meant he would have had to pick up 98% of all the votes cast for all the other candidates to beat Seselja. Given that there were some fairly right wing candidates in the mix, this was never a remote possibility.

The Greens, and the Democrats before them, are in it for one reason: that electoral funding. Their Senate candidate picks up less than a fifth of the vote and has next to no chance of being elected, and the two Reps candidates even less chance, but it translates into a truckload of dollars out of the public pocket.

chewy14 5:10 pm 23 Oct 15

rubaiyat said :

dungfungus said :

Mayor Rattenbury should refer to the factual comment on another thread about voting predictions namely “The famous election eve (2012) poll which predicted an Assembly with only 6 Liberal MLAs is a reminder of opinion polling “margin of error” problems in this town”.
How many Green seats were won in the South of Canberra?
Zed is the man.
Mind you, Ms Hobbs credentials are very good, for a Green candidate.

It is actually a mark of The Greens that they are mostly extremely well educated and professionals.

It is also their Achilles heel because they mistakenly assume the public they are addressing actually reads and thinks before they vote.

Better that they appealed to the publics baser instincts of fear, greed and envy. Like the major parties.

Higher rates of tertiary education (not “extremely well educated” as you claim) does not actually mean they are more intelligent or more knowledgeable on any particular subject. An arts degree is still an arts degree.

But yes, it is their Achilles heel because they believe their ideology should trump other’s self interest. Particularly when it’s a choice between the major party’s vote buying and other people paying for the Greens ideological wet dreams.

Of course if they ever got any real power, they’d fall apart as a party (ala the Democrats) when they had to deal with the reality of competing priorities and community interests over pure ideology.

Prime example being their rejection of Kevin Rudds CPRS. The could have compromised with a scheme that could be ramped up over time but their ideology prevented them from compromising on a workable solution. Instead, we now have nothing because of it.

dungfungus 1:59 pm 23 Oct 15

rubaiyat said :

dungfungus said :

Mayor Rattenbury should refer to the factual comment on another thread about voting predictions namely “The famous election eve (2012) poll which predicted an Assembly with only 6 Liberal MLAs is a reminder of opinion polling “margin of error” problems in this town”.
How many Green seats were won in the South of Canberra?
Zed is the man.
Mind you, Ms Hobbs credentials are very good, for a Green candidate.

It is actually a mark of The Greens that they are mostly extremely well educated and professionals.

It is also their Achilles heel because they mistakenly assume the public they are addressing actually reads and thinks before they vote.

Better that they appealed to the publics baser instincts of fear, greed and envy. Like the major parties.

Your first sentence was good.
It was all downhill from there.

rubaiyat 1:33 pm 23 Oct 15

Acton said :

Ghettosmurf87 said :

She’s not running for local government, aka the ACT Legislative Assembly. She’s running for the ACT Senate in the next federal election.

That notwithstanding, entering into politics at any level is not necessarily a wise career move

Yep – I realised that about 10 minutes after submitting. Mea culpa. Glad she is not standing for local government and good luck to her running for the Senate. But ACT Liberals should have enough support to get their candidate over the quota.

The Greens just missed out on a senate seat last time so it depends on the publics mood next time. But they do have a chance.

rubaiyat 1:02 pm 23 Oct 15

dungfungus said :

Mayor Rattenbury should refer to the factual comment on another thread about voting predictions namely “The famous election eve (2012) poll which predicted an Assembly with only 6 Liberal MLAs is a reminder of opinion polling “margin of error” problems in this town”.
How many Green seats were won in the South of Canberra?
Zed is the man.
Mind you, Ms Hobbs credentials are very good, for a Green candidate.

It is actually a mark of The Greens that they are mostly extremely well educated and professionals.

It is also their Achilles heel because they mistakenly assume the public they are addressing actually reads and thinks before they vote.

Better that they appealed to the publics baser instincts of fear, greed and envy. Like the major parties.

Acton 12:36 pm 23 Oct 15

Ghettosmurf87 said :

She’s not running for local government, aka the ACT Legislative Assembly. She’s running for the ACT Senate in the next federal election.

That notwithstanding, entering into politics at any level is not necessarily a wise career move

Yep – I realised that about 10 minutes after submitting. Mea culpa. Glad she is not standing for local government and good luck to her running for the Senate. But ACT Liberals should have enough support to get their candidate over the quota.

Ghettosmurf87 9:13 am 23 Oct 15

Acton said :

I agree with Mr Dungfungus that Ms Hobbs has impressive credentials. Her resume includes working with the United Nations World Food Program and in Nepal following the earthquakes. I think she has gained terrific life experiences. But does she have the experience and aptitude to be a good local government representative?

Why waste her talents in local Government dealing with the frivolities of trams, rates, dogs, roads, schools, planning regulations, garbage collection etc? Surely the world outside the ACT borders has greater need, interest and challenge.

I won’t vote for her to save her from making a terrible career choice.

She’s not running for local government, aka the ACT Legislative Assembly. She’s running for the ACT Senate in the next federal election.

That notwithstanding, entering into politics at any level is not necessarily a wise career move

switch 9:12 am 23 Oct 15

Acton said :

Why waste her talents in local Government dealing with the frivolities of trams, rates, dogs, roads, schools, planning regulations, garbage collection etc?

Why not? Many of those issues are beyond our “delusions of grandeur” local council to deal with successfully.

neanderthalsis 8:46 am 23 Oct 15

Mayor Shane seems to forget that the Zed Man himself always attracted a huge vote down south in the local derby. I think Zed won’t be losing any sleep over the recycled posturing by the Greens. Besides, can you imagine what a Liberal federal Government would do to this town if it had no support base here?

Acton 8:33 am 23 Oct 15

I agree with Mr Dungfungus that Ms Hobbs has impressive credentials. Her resume includes working with the United Nations World Food Program and in Nepal following the earthquakes. I think she has gained terrific life experiences. But does she have the experience and aptitude to be a good local government representative?

Why waste her talents in local Government dealing with the frivolities of trams, rates, dogs, roads, schools, planning regulations, garbage collection etc? Surely the world outside the ACT borders has greater need, interest and challenge. I won’t vote for her to save her from making a terrible career choice.

astrojax 2:28 am 23 Oct 15

well, we might as well hope…

Masquara 10:48 pm 22 Oct 15

Sorry Shane. If the amazing and super-popular Kerrie Tucker couldn’t get into the Senate after making a great contribution as an MLA, this Jenny-Come-Lately won’t.

dungfungus 7:11 pm 22 Oct 15

Mayor Rattenbury should refer to the factual comment on another thread about voting predictions namely “The famous election eve (2012) poll which predicted an Assembly with only 6 Liberal MLAs is a reminder of opinion polling “margin of error” problems in this town”.
How many Green seats were won in the South of Canberra?
Zed is the man.
Mind you, Ms Hobbs credentials are very good, for a Green candidate.

Skyring 4:11 pm 22 Oct 15

Geez. We get this every election. The Greens make a big noise about whatever new candidate they’ve managed to persuade to run, and they run a distant third on election day, with both major parties easily achieving a quota. The last time the result was even close was when One Nation first put up a candidate.

I wouldn’t think Katy Gallagher is all that popular, to be honest, and she’s going to be handicapped by Bill Shorten’s presidential election campaign, which I suspect won’t be one to remember.

Malcolm Talkbull, OTOH, should win an easy victory and Seselja will cruise on his coat-tails.

MERC600 3:54 pm 22 Oct 15

Thank you Charlotte for the thoughts of Mr Rattenbury.
I might wait a while and see what Mr Antony Green has to say about it. Or indeed has he already ? I must have a look.

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