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When is a good time to buy property in Canberra?

By teejay 15 May 2014 28

I’m looking into buying my first home in Canberra and have been reading all about the predicted property price declines as a result of the 2014 budget. If house prices in Canberra crash, it will be a great time to buy. A work colleague described it as a “once in a generational opportunity to buy cheaply in Canberra”. But when (exactly) is the best time to buy in Canberra? Is it now? Or in the next few months when the cuts really start to hit home? I’m keen to pick up a bargain! 🙂

What’s Your opinion?


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When is a good time to buy property in Canberra?
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arescarti42 3:37 pm 16 May 14

justsomeaussie said :

One day Governments will wake up and realise that giving free money out to buyers only pushes prices higher thereby actually giving the the money to the sellers.

Call me cynical, but Governments have always known this, it’s the first home buyers that need to wake up to the fact that they’re being played.

justsomeaussie said :

All the Government has done with first home buyer/builder grants and concessions is trick younger people into thinking that they can actually afford to get into the market and transfer their wealth into the older few who are selling.

I reckon that’s been the point all along, ‘improving affordability’ has just been a convenient guise.

VYBerlinaV8_is_back 3:27 pm 16 May 14

@arescarti:

So the government hasn’t got any money to stimulate, and yet we keep hearing, from multiple sources, how our government debt is super low by world standards and we shouldn’t be curtailing spending. Hmmm.

And our interest rates could easily drop further if need be. If the dollar drops all of a sudden our exports will be more competitive.

And as far as building, what is it that we’ve been building? Family homes? Or perhaps McMansions and luxury 2 bedroom units?

If push came to shove, the feds could easily give housing a shove along. And in order to prevent a crash, they would. After all, what happens when property crashes? The economy drops its bundle, as per the experience of countries such as Ireland and the US, and we end up with widespread unemployment and spiraling government debt.

justsomeaussie 3:06 pm 16 May 14

One day Governments will wake up and realise that giving free money out to buyers only pushes prices higher thereby actually giving the the money to the sellers.

Go and ask your Real Estate Agent about the term “build into the price”.

The more demand they create, the more the market will respond with higher prices. All the Government has done with first home buyer/builder grants and concessions is trick younger people into thinking that they can actually afford to get into the market and transfer their wealth into the older few who are selling.

arescarti42 2:06 pm 16 May 14

VYBerlinaV8_is_back said :

We’ve already seen plenty of evidence that the government will stimulate in the event of a major economic problem, and we have plenty of room to move on interest rates still, and plenty of space on the credit card (so to speak).

This is not 2008 anymore. The Government doesn’t have anywhere near the ammo that it had back then coming off the back of 15 years strong growth. Also you may not have noticed, but the current lot in Government aren’t exactly Keynesian spendthrifts.

Similarly the RBA has spent most of its rate cut ammo already, there might be a few bullets left but too much lower and the cash funding our CAD will flee and dollar will collapse. It’s true that Government debt is low by international standards, but it needs to be as the Government is implicitly backing our world leading private debt. Without the Government guarantee, our banks would lose their AAA ratings and cheap international funding.

VYBerlinaV8_is_back said :

Property has been stagnating for several years, replacement costs are high while quality is low, and we haven’t been building many houses for some time now.

If you look at the ABS dwelling data, in the ACT we’re currently building around double the long run average, and new supply has been well and truly elevated for about 4 years.

VYBerlinaV8_is_back said :

If property was going to crash it would have done so during the GFC, but it didn’t. And it won’t now. It’s not real estate agent talk, it’s common sense. The crash-spruikers have been telling us the big crash is right around the corner for 10 years now, and their position is less valid now than it was 5 years ago.

I think it’s becoming increasingly obvious that Australia didn’t avoid the GFC, we just managed to kick the can down the road. Unemployment here is now higher than it was during the GFC, and it’s projected to continue going up. The mining boom has been the only thing separating Australia from all the other high cost, low productivity, massive debt countries around the world, and it’s only just starting to wind up.

I’d say the likelihood of a crash is much higher now than it has been at any point over the last 15 years.

Tetranitrate 2:03 pm 16 May 14

VYBerlinaV8_is_back said :

Az said :

VYBerlinaV8_is_back said :

We’ve already had most of the ‘crash’.

No, we haven’t. That’s real estate agent talk.

Unless a few plane loads of Chinese investors swoop in (always possible), market is going to tank severely. It just has to reach it’s stress point. Most people don’t want it to tank and that’s about all that’s keeping it up at the moment, belief. But as the cuts really bite, you’ll see a gradual realisation that things do not always go up. (Remembers there’s also the efficiency dividend increase piled on top the main cuts.)

Also, we’re due a GFC2 any day now as the Yanks’ funny money program comes home to roost. Combo of that and Abbott’s cuts could make housing very affordable depending how much the Australian housing bubble is impacted. Enjoy.

Completely disagree. We’ve already seen plenty of evidence that the government will stimulate in the event of a major economic problem, and we have plenty of room to move on interest rates still, and plenty of space on the credit card (so to speak).

Property has been stagnating for several years, replacement costs are high while quality is low, and we haven’t been building many houses for some time now.

If property was going to crash it would have done so during the GFC, but it didn’t. And it won’t now. It’s not real estate agent talk, it’s common sense. The crash-spruikers have been telling us the big crash is right around the corner for 10 years now, and their position is less valid now than it was 5 years ago.

Err… you know the government spent billions on boosting first home buyers grants precisely to prevent a housing crash during the GFC, right?

Az 1:49 pm 16 May 14

VYBerlinaV8_is_back said :

Completely disagree. We’ve already seen plenty of evidence that the government will stimulate in the event of a major economic problem, and we have plenty of room to move on interest rates still, and plenty of space on the credit card (so to speak).

Property has been stagnating for several years, replacement costs are high while quality is low, and we haven’t been building many houses for some time now.

If property was going to crash it would have done so during the GFC, but it didn’t. And it won’t now. It’s not real estate agent talk, it’s common sense. The crash-spruikers have been telling us the big crash is right around the corner for 10 years now, and their position is less valid now than it was 5 years ago.

All good points, except we’re talking about Canberra.

Rip billions out of any economy and it has a knock on effect (just as pumping billions in got us to where we are). Prices can’t just sit around stagnating when the market loses so many potential buyers along with their regular incomes.

Let’s be conservative – Only 4,000 jobs are lost locally and let’s underestimate their incomes at 60,000 pa. That’s a quarter of a billion sucked out of the local economy per year. Hold ya house prices up in that environment.

VYBerlinaV8_is_back 10:48 am 16 May 14

Az said :

VYBerlinaV8_is_back said :

We’ve already had most of the ‘crash’.

No, we haven’t. That’s real estate agent talk.

Unless a few plane loads of Chinese investors swoop in (always possible), market is going to tank severely. It just has to reach it’s stress point. Most people don’t want it to tank and that’s about all that’s keeping it up at the moment, belief. But as the cuts really bite, you’ll see a gradual realisation that things do not always go up. (Remembers there’s also the efficiency dividend increase piled on top the main cuts.)

Also, we’re due a GFC2 any day now as the Yanks’ funny money program comes home to roost. Combo of that and Abbott’s cuts could make housing very affordable depending how much the Australian housing bubble is impacted. Enjoy.

Completely disagree. We’ve already seen plenty of evidence that the government will stimulate in the event of a major economic problem, and we have plenty of room to move on interest rates still, and plenty of space on the credit card (so to speak).

Property has been stagnating for several years, replacement costs are high while quality is low, and we haven’t been building many houses for some time now.

If property was going to crash it would have done so during the GFC, but it didn’t. And it won’t now. It’s not real estate agent talk, it’s common sense. The crash-spruikers have been telling us the big crash is right around the corner for 10 years now, and their position is less valid now than it was 5 years ago.

Very Busy 10:21 am 16 May 14

VYBerlinaV8_is_back said :

Very Busy said :

Nobody giving advice here has asked you for more information. To properly advise you we need to know what your situation is.

That’s because no-one is (or should be) giving advice. This is just the opinions of some people with varying levels of interest in the topic.

Advice, opinions, suggestions – in the context of a public forum they’re all the same thing VY.

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