10 December 2007

Demography is Destiny

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Psephological blogger Simon Jackman has crunched the AEC numbers to come up with graphical mapped representations of the booth-by-booth vote at the recent Federal election.

No real suprises – both the Canberra electorates are a sea of red, with the inner north being the ALP stronghold in Fraser and the wealthier parts of Gungahlin the sole Liberal outpost. The swing to the ALP, however, was concentrated in west Belconnen and the north of Gungahlin – booths near the City actually swung to the Liberals.

Fraser Two-Party-Preferred
Fraser Swing

Down south in the Canberra electorate, things are a bit more uniform, with the ALP vote a bit stronger in the north of the electorate (Kambah, Wanniassa, Woden, Weston and the inner south, with the notable exception of Deakin). The swings in this electorate were all over the place – I would put the big swing to the conservatives in Griffith down to the new residents of the Kingston Foreshore developments.

Canberra Two-Party-Preferred
Canberra Swing

Over the border in Eden-Monaro most of the big towns on the coast and in the West are Labor voters, with Liberal enclaves in Jerrabomberra and down Eden way (although the latter recorded some big swings to the ALP).

Eden-Monaro Two-Party-Preferred
Eden-Monaro Swing

So, how did your suburb vote?

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No surprises at the Gungahlin bogan-pov aspirational Liberal vote …

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