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Election Count – feeling a bit Green about the gills?

By jimbocool - 24 October 2008 39

Last night’s distribution sees the second Green, in this instance Elena Kirshbaum, elected to the last spot – a margin of 58 votes at the crucial point where Jones is excluded. Given that we haven’t hit the Greens’ strongest booths yet and that over half the votes have been counted, things are getting very interesting indeed.

Over on Pollbludger Antony suggested that a big factor in whether the Green gets up is whether Hanson opens up a big lead on Jones – yesterday was the first time this had happened and the result is indeed a Green elected! Looking at the upcoming booths I think Hanson will maintain his lead. Antony thinks the Libs preferences favour Jones, I think they favour Hanson – if Antony is right, I don’t think it’s enough for her to get ahead of him or to narrow the gap enough. The reason the gap is important is that at the crucial point of this count Kirshbaum is on 4960, Jones 4902, Hanson 5693 – if the two libs were more even, say 5200 and 5395, they’d both be ahead of Elena and she’d be excluded.

Having had another look my calculations of yesterday I discovered an error that overstated the Pangallo effect, Antony Green also helpfully demolished the argument in a more general sense so I’m giving up on that for now – however, I reserve the right to come back to it if the result is decided on less than 300 votes.

As today’s count should include some interesting booths – Lyneham and Ngunnawal – I won’t do anything other than very basic analysis today, but will do some serious number crunching over the weekend and make a Fearless Prediction. In the meantime I think it’s probably time for the Libs to panic.

UPDATED: Caf has also sent in his analysis:

    As noted elsewhere, the AEC’s latest interim preference distribution for Molonglo contains a few changes (it now includes all votes from these polling places: Ainslie, Ainslie North, Amaroo, Aranda, Baker Gardens, Barton, Belconnen, Bonython, Calvary Hospital, Calwell, Campbell, Chapman, Chisholm, Curtin, Conder, Deakin, Dickson, Downer, Duffy, Farrer, Griffith, Gungahlin, Holder, Hughes, and all pre-poll electronic votes).

    The Greens’ Caroline Le Couteur and Elena Kirschbaum are now in a literal dead heat – tied at count 88 on 0.39 quotas each. I’m not sure how the AEC decides who to exclude in that case, but in the interim count they’ve knocked out Le Couteur (possibly on the basis that she had one (!) less primary vote that Kirschbaum). The distribution of Shane Rattenbury’s excess, along with preferences from Mike Hettinger and Frank Pangallo ends up with Kirschbaum on 0.81 quotas against the three remaining Liberals: Giulia Jones on 0.59 quotas, Jacqui Burke on 0.55 and Jeremy Hanson on 0.73.

    Jacqui Burke is next to be excluded, which puts the three remaining contenders at Kirschbaum on 0.82, Jones on 0.81 and Hanson on 0.95. Yes, that’s right – some of Burke’s preferences flowed to the Greens over her fellow Liberals – enough, in fact to tip the balance in Kirschbaum’s favour. Jones is now excluded, leaving the last 4 spots to Hanson, Barr, Corbell and Kirschbaum, for a 3/2/2 split between Labour, Liberal and Greens.

    With the race so tight, the outcome could change with every extra booth that’s counted. The last spot in Molonglo is pretty much line-ball between Le Couteur, Kirschbaum and Jones.

What’s Your opinion?


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39 Responses to
Election Count – feeling a bit Green about the gills?
johnboy 12:42 pm 24 Oct 08

apologies, yes, Liberals 7 last time, I stand corrected on that.

I still think a swing against was unacceptable in the anti-incumbent climate.

jakez 12:33 pm 24 Oct 08

Skidbladnir said :

jakez said :

6 and 7 seats for the Liberals… In terms of conclusions over the running of the campaign, and whether it was a ‘success’ it’s a gigantic gap.

I wouldn’t consider a campaign for which the end result was either ‘holding on to the number of seats we already had by the skin of their teeth’ or losing a seat as a Success…

The amount of resources it required to achieve that outcome would still make it a net loss.

Thus the “” in “success”.

However as a Party member, considering where we were 12 months ago 7 seats is quite frankly a dream result.

caf 12:26 pm 24 Oct 08

Didn’t they elect 7 last time? 9 Labour, 7 Liberal, 1 Green.

areaman 12:26 pm 24 Oct 08

Actually they only got 7 last time (3,2,2,), it was 6 when Mulcahy bailed.

jimbocool 12:25 pm 24 Oct 08

Sorry JB, There were seven Libs elected last time – Smyth, Seselja, Burke, Dunne, Pratt, Stefaniak and Mulcahy. This was a success of a kind as they reclaimed a seat from Helen Cross.

johnboy 12:21 pm 24 Oct 08

Liberals elected 8 last time (Mulcahy wandering off the reservation later is not relevant). So moving to between 6-7 is already a dismal showing.

As I’ve said before, to suffer this loss amidst a 10% swing against the government is failure of the highest order.

Skidbladnir 12:13 pm 24 Oct 08

jakez said :

6 and 7 seats for the Liberals… In terms of conclusions over the running of the campaign, and whether it was a ‘success’ it’s a gigantic gap.

I wouldn’t consider a campaign for which the end result was either ‘holding on to the number of seats we already had by the skin of their teeth’ or losing a seat as a Success…

The amount of resources it required to achieve that outcome would still make it a net loss.

jimbocool 12:06 pm 24 Oct 08

Caf – there is quite a bit of leakage from the Libs to the Greens throughout the count – symptomatic of their lack of discipline! The Gods of Irony will be amused if it is this leakage that gets the green over the line

caf 11:52 am 24 Oct 08

What’s interesting is looking where Jacqui Burke’s votes flow when she’s excluded. On the booths counted, 42% go to Jones, 40% to Hanson, 3% to the Greens and a whopping 11% exhuast (the remainder go to Labor and don’t affect things). Those exhausted votes would have been easily enough to tip the balance.

jakez 11:51 am 24 Oct 08

The gap between 6 and 7 seats for the Liberals. In terms of votes, it is a very small gap. In terms of conclusions over the running of the campaign, and whether it was a ‘success’ it’s a gigantic gap.

jimbocool 11:48 am 24 Oct 08

Ngunnawal is a very good booth for Jones, but after that it’s better for Hanson – the question is how the preferences in the remaining booths are split up between the two. You could use either mine or Antony’s ratios of preference flows to get a rough idea of how that cookie’s going to crumble.

Jonathon Reynolds 11:40 am 24 Oct 08

@amarooresident:
You’ll probably see a concentration of preferences for the two candidates in their “home” territories.

Jone’s emphasis on Gungahlin and lack of coverage in the southern booths will probably work against her given that the only remaining pure “Gungahlin” booths are Palmerston, Ngunnawal and Ngunnawal South (Aprox 4.5K ballots cast).

The Weston/Woden area appears as if it has more available uncounted ballots and this is the natural “home” territory of Hanson. (Though though he was directly competing with other “locals” Kent, Barnier [resident of Farrer] and White in this “home” territory area for a higher preference).

areaman 11:40 am 24 Oct 08

Yeah amarooresident, with only three smaller Gungahlin booths left to count it’s not looking like Jones will improve her marign. She’s got 66% of her vote in, with only 55% of the total counted.

areaman 11:30 am 24 Oct 08

Having a really quick look at the numbers the Oct 23 sample has Hanson up 600 over jones with about 55% of the vote, so he’s doing slightly better than he should be. The entire liber vote is about 1% (or 480 votes in this sample) higher than it it will finish at, so that would eat up any help Jones willget by hanson falling.

So yeah the Libs shoud be worried.

The greens concern should be that Le Couteur might not get as many preferences when she replaces Kirschbaum as the second green.

amarooresident 11:15 am 24 Oct 08

I haven’t looked at the booths closely but I wonder if Jones might suffer because she concentrated so much of her campaign in Gungahlin, where she did quite well, at the expense of the rest of the electorate.

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