The Canberra Liberals will struggle to meet its accelerated land release target in its first term if they win government and would fall short of its billion-dollar revenue windfall to shore up the budget, according to Chief Minister Andrew Barr.
Mr Barr told Region that he questioned whether demand would be enough to justify such a compressed land release program and the capacity to deliver it.
The Liberals say the ACT Government’s bottom line will be buoyed by a $1.3 billion windfall from accelerated land sales of 6050 blocks to the 2028-29 financial year.
Opposition Leader Elizabeth Lee says this will bring in $900 million in her first term.
But Mr Barr says the winding back of overseas immigration, which would be even more severe if Peter Dutton became Prime Minister, would mean a slower rate of population growth and impact demand.
He said there were also questions about being able to release that amount of land in an approved serviced form in that period of time.
“Unless they are proposing to sell it without sewerage, water, electricity, roads, they’re just not going to be able to achieve the practical timeline, let alone the sales,” he said.
“Who is doing the estate development? Who’s going to do the civil works? Who’s connecting the water, the sewerage, the electricity? Who’s building the roads? And how is that going to be done in the time frame that they’ve talked about?
“Then it’s all got to go through planning approval and the estate development. That work doesn’t just happen. It’s got to be done by someone.
“And they’ve not really answered how that’s going to occur, allegedly at the same time as all these other major infrastructure projects are being delivered.”
Mr Barr said it was folly to base long-term taxation and spending decisions on one-off asset sales.
“You only sell the land once,” he said.
Mr Barr has already announced a speeding up of land release to boost housing with the Indicative Land Release Program for the next five years showing the government expects to release enough land for 21,422 dwellings, with 5107 in this financial year.
If returned to government, Mr Barr flagged an overhaul of directorates to accompany the declaration of housing supply as a major project to help meet Labor’s goal of 30,000 new homes by 2030.
Mr Barr has resisted calls for a super housing portfolio, but there will be administrative changes to better align planning and transport, while city services, environment, parks and land management could be brought together.
He acknowledged frustrations with the approvals process, particularly from developers, but said that now the planning reforms were bedded down, resources were being freed up.
“One of the benefits of an administrative change that will more closely align planning and transport will be to address some of those sorts of issues,” he said.
“The emphasis is on delivery and I will make some administrative changes to enhance that.”