Mark Parton’s concession that his proposed Woden to City Busway won’t be all continuous, priority running isn’t fatal to the Canberra Liberals’ transport plan, the key plank of which is dumping light rail.
The missing link, Commonwealth Avenue Bridge, will make it a harder sell, as will the fact that taking a lane out of Capital Circle and Commonwealth Avenue for priority running will affect peak-time traffic flow in the north-south corridor.
But the transport plan is more than just the Woden to City run. Mr Parton is banking on Canberrans taking a wider view and becoming increasingly chary of the cost of light rail and impatient about its delivery timetable.
Major Projects Canberra officials are aware of the challenge posed by a lengthy timeline, saying recently that the 2032 completion date was conservative and could come in earlier than that.
It is also fair to say that much of the time lag is out of its hands due to the three approval levels that the project has to go through. Is there any other place in the country where this happens?
The real issue for Mr Parton is one that I warned about in March last year when the Canberra Liberals went all in and came out against light rail stage 2B.
“It has boarded a fixed track to the election that gives them little flexibility and poses the danger of building a campaign on a single contentious issue,” I wrote.
“It could prove to be a house of cards – take out light rail and the whole edifice collapses.”
The Canberra Liberals wanted a point of difference, and shunting light rail gave them that, but it also alienated those who supported light rail but could consider changing their vote.
The weakness in their transport policy exposed this week, exploited to the hilt by Transport Minister Chris Steel, will only mark it harder for waverers to come across to the Liberal column.
A Riotact poll on light rail has garnered enough votes to be a reasonable sample, if still not exactly scientific. It shows 68 per cent to 32 per cent in favour of getting light rail to Woden, a statistic that has remained roughly consistent throughout its life. (And no, people cannot vote more than once … on the same device, at least.)
That may just reflect our readership, although the comments go the other way. But it points to a solid base of support for light rail that does not augur well for a party that made a conscious decision to make the October election yet another referendum on the fixed-track people mover.
I said last year that making it an either/or proposition was a big gamble.
The Canberra Liberals will want to talk about all kinds of other issues and government missteps and snafus, but it has no choice now but to double down on its light rail position and prosecute it to the end for fear of being seen as diffident about its own policy.
The other issue for them is that the more project updates, renders and route designs the government rolls out, the more light rail becomes part of the landscape, if only in our minds.
That is the challenge Mr Parton faces in selling a transport policy without light rail and coupling his party’s fortunes to it.