13 December 2024

'Radioactive distraction': Dutton's nuclear costings reignite energy debate

| Chris Johnson
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Peter Dutton

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has released modelled costings for his nuclear energy proposal. Photo: Peter Dutton Facebook.

Unions are warning Peter Dutton’s nuclear proposal will drive up power bills and worsen the cost of living for working Australians.

The Opposition Leader has released costings for his nuclear energy plan. He says that a government he leads would keep coal working much longer than renewables.

Mr Dutton estimates the seven proposed nuclear reactor sites would cost around $331 billion.

According to ACTU research, that’s enough to install solar panels on every roof in Australia 10 times over, with plenty left over for increased funding for schools and hospitals.

Pointing to the latest analysis from Frontier Economics, Mr Dutton said it reveals the Coalition’s balanced energy mix, including zero-emissions nuclear power, offers a cheaper, cleaner and more consistent alternative, delivering massive savings for Australian families and businesses.

“The Coalition’s energy plan will save Australians up to $263 billion compared to Labor’s renewables-only approach – a 44 per cent saving for taxpayers and businesses,” he said.

The modelling estimates that the Coalition’s nuclear plan will cost $331 billion over 25 years, which Mr Dutton says is $263 billion less than Labor’s renewables transition plan.

The Coalition’s policy would have renewables provide 54 per cent of the nation’s electricity by 2050, with nuclear providing 38 per cent, and storage and gas providing 8 per cent.

Labor wants 82 per cent renewables by 2030 and almost all energy generation from renewables by 2050.

READ ALSO There’s only one Australian flag, says Dutton

Mr Dutton says his plan to build seven nuclear reactors around Australia would be 44 per cent cheaper than Labor’s plan over a 25-year period.

“By avoiding Labor’s unnecessary overdevelopment on pristine landscapes and farmland, the Coalition ensures a more sustainable and responsible shift from coal to zero emissions nuclear,” the Opposition Leader said.

“Under Anthony Albanese, emissions are higher now than when the Coalition left office, proving that Labor’s chaotic renewables-only agenda isn’t just expensive, it’s ineffective.

“Our plan responsibly integrates renewables, increasing large-scale solar and wind capacity while protecting regional communities from overdevelopment.

“At the same time, zero-emissions nuclear energy and gas provide the reliability that Labor’s plan fails to deliver.”

However, the Australian Council of Trade Unions has cited an Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis estimate that Mr Dutton’s nuclear proposal would increase the average Australian household’s electricity bill by $665 a year.

By contrast, it says Australians with rooftop solar are already saving an average of $1594 every year.

ACTU President Michele O’Neil said working people can’t afford to see their energy bills go up $665 every year for the Coalition’s nuclear proposal when they’re facing cost-of-living pressures.

“For the cost of Peter Dutton’s nuclear proposal, every Australian household could have rooftop solar 10 times over, and we would still have billions left over for schools and hospitals,” Ms O’Neil said.

“The Liberal Party’s priorities show they are out of touch with the issues that working people care about.

“Today’s announcement is a radioactive distraction that is too slow, too dangerous, and way too expensive for working people to afford.

“Unions want to make sure that no worker or community is left behind in the energy transition. Dutton’s proposal is avoiding what is really needed, which is creating well-paid, safe, and secure jobs now.”

READ ALSO Dutton accuses CSIRO of allowing political interference over nuclear energy costings

The Dutton plan also assumes Australia would build nuclear power plants faster than any other country has before.

Even under that assumption, the first nuclear reactor would not come online until nearly every coal power plant has already shut down, says the ACTU, leaving those workers without good quality jobs to move into and risking years of blackouts and unreliable energy.

The CSIRO has restated in its GenCost report this week that nuclear power is at least twice as expensive as renewable energy.

Its report forecasts that the cost of a regular large-scale nuclear plant operating 90 per cent of the time would be $155 a megawatt hour, blowing out to $252 a megawatt hour if only used half of the time.

“Nuclear advocates have asked for greater recognition of the potential cost advantages of nuclear technology’s long operational life, and CSIRO has calculated those cost advantages for the first time,” the report states.

“Our finding is that there are no unique cost advantages arising from nuclear technology’s long operational life.

“Similar cost savings are achievable from shorter-lived technologies, even accounting for the fact that shorter-lived technologies need to be built twice to achieve the same life.”

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How can we have confidence in anything Chris Bowen says. He manages to make a mess of most things he goes near. He should return to his brilliant career with Fairfield Council. So, Labor is saying Yes to nuclear subs under AUKUS, yes to Lucas Heights reactor continuing, but no to reactors in parts of Australia – reactors which are in widespread use in the major economies. Dutton is portrayed as a negative monster. Labor wants us to believe that we can be the only country to rely on wind/solar/renewables as we are shutting down coal fired power stations. I note that there are now around 1142 coal fired power stations in China as at 2023. More have been built. Labor choses to ignore that and sings China’s praises regarding renewables. Labor will be dumped big time by Australians soon. They just won’t make sensible practical decisions. It is not in their DNA.

Capital Retro10:06 am 17 Dec 24

China is a developing country Publius so it is unfair to draw comparisons with them.
You never see the doomsday cult protesting outside the Chinese Embassy, do you?

You do realise (with the exception of Queensland perhaps – they may still have a public plant or two), the only people choosing to shut down coal power plants are private enterprise…. government isn’t forcing them to do anything.

HiddenDragon8:46 pm 14 Dec 24

“For the cost of Peter Dutton’s nuclear proposal, every Australian household could have rooftop solar 10 times over, and we would still have billions left over for schools and hospitals,” Ms O’Neil said.”

Some very simplistic arguments here (and matching scare campaigns from Bowen and the renewable energy lobby group) about solar, given the realities already being confronted with current levels of domestic solar –

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-12-02/aemo-demands-emergency-backstop-to-switch-off-solar/104670332

Labor will need coal longer than they are currently (for very obvious political reasons) admitting to and their plan to rely on gas for a very long time is at serious risk given the increasing extent to which they now dance to the tune of the Greens and their anti-gas fundamentalism.

Both of the major parties need to acknowledge that a realistic future for the Australian energy system lies somewhere between the competing visions they are trying to sell – if they do that, they will be better able to deal with the forces which are pulling to the two extremes.

“The Dutton plan also assumes Australia would build nuclear power plants faster than any other country has before.”

From scratch and having to import all of the expertise and equipment Australia will build nuclear power plants faster than only country in history.

It’s complete garbage. This is why the energy retailers aren’t buying in and why Dutton’s Dud plan is DOA.

Wouldn’t doing it ‘from scratch’ mean building the parts ourselves and training up our own experts? Surely getting people and parts from overseas that already exist will be way faster.

If the plan is garbage, it is not for this reason.

We have no expertise or experience in building Nuclear Power plants, we have no manufacturing or support around the design, build and supply of such plants. We’re building everything from scratch, not just the plant but the supply for materials and the waste. Not to mention the massive amount of water required in Australia is hugely problematic.

Time for your blokes to deal with reality. We’re not going to build nuclear power plants faster than any country in history to meet Dutton’s dodgy costings, given the challenges, it’s very, very likely it would be the opposite.

You are probably right that it won’t be the fastest nuclear power establishment in history. Doing things on time and on budget is something Australia does poorly, especially if the project is politically charged. I think where we disagree is simply what is meant by doing it ‘from scratch’. To me, using an existing design and paying to have the parts made elsewhere and sent to us as well as getting some experts with experience to come and help, rather than working it out ourselves is the opposite of doing it from scratch.

Next, if ‘no expertise or experience’ was a reason for not doing something, we would still be in the stone age. To be clear, I have doubts about how realistic nuclear energy in Aus is. I’m simply open to entertaining the idea and thinking about how it would work if it were to go ahead.

Capital Retro8:38 pm 16 Dec 24

Surely, becoming the world’s only “Renewable Energy Super Power” without any expertise or experience is more problematic that doing what the coalition is doing namely exactly what has been done successfully elsewhere for many years, Seano.

@BSC Having expertise, experience or infrastructure is not a reason not to do things, it’s why they’re likely to be more expensive and time-consuming.

It’s why the Energy Retailers & Generators don’t want Dutton’s dud Nuclear plan. It’s why Dutton’s costings are laughably bogus. If Dutton gets his way we will waste decades and billions getting nowhere.

Dutton’s plan is simply about keeping coal & gas, it’s a recipe for higher prices and higher emissions.

@Capital this argument is so dumb I’m struggling to narrow down which logical fallacies it falls into….all of them?

IDK I’m not interested in debating with someone who clearly hasn’t read the Gencost report explaining why Nuclear is the most expensive form of power in Australia.

As for “successfully elsewhere” …Geez mate do some basic reading before posting…no one is arguing nuclear doesn’t work…the argument is it’s massively expensive, very slow to build and comes with a significant waste and water problems (I wonder why water would a problem in Australia…oh wait).

Capital Retro9:00 am 17 Dec 24

Yes, “oh wait” indeed.
How about you tell us how much the full cost of becoming a “Renewables Super Power” is going to be and how long will it take to implement?
And don’t accuse me of not doing basic reading about nuclear when you have obviously missed that the proposed siting of the nuclear generators is almost in every case is on an existing site of a thermal power station that has adequate supplies of cooling water already in place. Also has access to existing power line infrastructure. Almost a “plug and play” situation.

Capital Retro9:36 am 17 Dec 24

It may not be a “power plant” but we we do have the experience, Seano.
The Australian Atomic Energy Commission (AAEC) built the Lucas Heights nuclear power station, which is now the main research establishment of the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation (ANSTO)
Construction began in October 1955 under the supervision of Sydney architects Stephenson and Turner. It was opened in 1958.
The reactor was built by Head Wrightson Processes Ltd, an English group that had also constructed the Harwell Reactor.
Following that, in 1969, the Australian government proposed to the New South Wales government that a 500 MWe nuclear power station should be built on Commonwealth territory (at Jervis Bay) and connected to the New South Wales grid, with electricity generation and distribution being a state responsibility under the Australian constitution.
Site work was started but construction was abandoned soon after due to a visionless PM called McMahon.

““Renewables Super Power” less than nuclear. Read the gencost report.

@Captial

“It may not be a “power plant” but we we do have the experience, Seano.
The Australian Atomic Energy Commission (AAEC) built the Lucas Heights nuclear power station, which is now the main research establishment of the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation (ANSTO)””

Even by your standards, this is tediously dumb A small reactor built decades ago for nuclear medicine is not even a remotely the same thing. I’m not going to argue this idiotic point, read the gencost report.

Stephen Saunders7:22 am 14 Dec 24

Dutton and Albanese might like to “fight” the election over nuclear power. Handy diversion from boring trivia like massive immigration, real wages in free-fall, household incomes shot, rental and homelessness crisis, houses unaffordable like never before.

The stability of the power grid that the lives of millions of Australia can’t be delivered by solar or battery. It needs frequency control. Coal generators act as really great batteries.

None of that is true. We’re already 35% renewables. We’d already have an unstable grid if that were true but we don’t.

Coal generators aren’t reliable either with breakdowns frequent.

funny how the AEMO does not agree with you. Also, the irony of your comment about batteries was wonderful!

“Mr Dutton estimates the seven proposed nuclear reactor sites would cost around $331 billion.” No Chris, that is the 25-year cost of the Coalition’s energy plan of renewables with nuclear, versus the 25-year cost of $594 billion for Labor’s renewables only plan, according to the analysis by Frontier Economics.

According to Frontier Economics, the Coalition’s plan of adding nuclear power to the generation mix will reduce the cost of transition away from coal generation by 44%, compared to the renewables only Labor plan. The Coalition plan can be read here – https://www.australianeedsnuclear.org.au

Only because they’re comparing different things. The coalition plan also involves generating 41% less power and doesn’t include the costs of running coal plants for an extra decade+.

Capital Retro4:42 pm 14 Dec 24

Only a couple of days ago, Chris Bowen backed new state powers mandating the extension of retiring coal-and-gas-fired power plants, sparking Coalition warnings Labor is being “dishonest” about longer-term reliance on thermal generation.
They are two different things though, Labor claiming 100% supply through part-time renewables whereas the coalition’s plan is to supply about 35% of all power 100% of the time.
Labor is claiming that batteries are prime sources of power and indeed they are when they are charged but what happens when they are flat and power from wind and solar go straight to consumers?

Frontier Economics analysis of nuclear power costs in Australia is completely flawed.

https://reneweconomy.com.au/frontier-economics-and-its-house-of-cards-case-for-nuclear/

Not only is Liberal suggesting costing the production of 45% less electricity, their other assumptions are just as bizarre. Really disappointing that they could not get this right, but then again, they were the architects of Robodebt etc!

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