12 August 2012

So when is this house price insanity going to end ?

| Maxwell
Join the conversation
64

World asset price implosion. Australia in small recession, stock prices falling.

Australia had a housing price boom.

Well off young people struggling with rentals, well off young folk can only dream of buying. Well off buyers of yesteryear in negative equity. Big buyers effectively bankrupted with asset worth less than the amount borrowed.

Houses sitting on the market not selling for years. Income earning individuals sleeping in cars through lack of accommodation. Huge amounts of apartments coming online which hardly anyone can afford to buy. Baby boomer investors starting to look nervous !

Under supply of houses in productive regions means they can’t grow – workers can’t re-locate. Wage spiral. People can’t earn enough to pay for housing and consume – retailers suffering.

Job losses accelerating by the day. Public service job losses through the roof !

Is the mining boom starting to slow ? I hope not.

When will the house price insanity end ? When will Australia be a country where an honest person can safely put a roof over their own heads ? Housing is a right and a need.

Only 400k ? Only ? Do you hear yourself speak ? Do you have 400k ? Do you know what the interest payment of 400k is per year ? Do you know you need an 80k deposit ? Do you know how long it takes to save 80k ? Do you know that if I had 80k I wouldn’t spend it to go into 320k in debt ! On an asset that won’t grow ! Because the law of numbers has finally arrived and I cannot pay what I do not have which means it cannot possible grow !

Join the conversation

64
All Comments
  • All Comments
  • Website Comments
LatestOldest

If you use debt sensibly you won’t have a problem. People focus a lot on the immediate and not the future.

Truthiness said :

The illusion that all could be landed gentry was always the bait in a debt trap. The “market” does not care about universal emancipation, capitalistic freedom is never “free”, let alone fair.

While there is a bankster ready to turn an inflated asking price into debt and interest, the prices grow. When the debt becomes too odious to manage, when the yoke hangs too heavy, the debt slave becomes a criminal and the debt masters tighten the reigns.

Infinite growth is impossible in a closed system, the illusion can not hold. The world is asking questions, which forge makes gold from air? Money has always been debt, the wolves are in the hen house.

/me claps.

Well said, that wo/man.

Maxwell said :

Save for ten years bwhahahahahahahah. That’ll work in the long run. If everyone has to save ten years for a deposit, what do you think will happen to sales volumes ?

There are always people at the end of their 10 years of saving. For all you know, the people buying the houses you think are too expensive may have done just that. Personally, I wasn’t settled enough work and location-wise to feel comfortable buying a house until I’d been working for 14 years. I’d been actively saving for a house the whole time, so of course I had a deposit when I was finally ready.

Ultimately, houses are worth what someone is prepared to pay for them. If no one was prepared to pay the current prices, they would have to come down. Clearly, there are people who are both able and willing.

shirty_bear said :

Kids these days :-\

Instead of renting a mcmansion and grizzling about the cost while playing your xbox on your 60″ 3D LED, going out and getting clattered every weekend at 9 bucks a drink, and doofing around in a fully sick WRX … do what your (OK, my) parents did; live in their parents’ converted garage for 3 years, eat cheeses grillies, and save everything. Then you’ve got your deposit, the loan is 20% smaller, and you’re away.

The only thing that’s changed is peoples’ lifestyle expectations. Homes always were expensive, always will be.

Spot on.

My partner and I are both 33 and didn’t exactly enter the market in the real “Golden years”. However, we already have a house and a rental unit in the inner north, as well as a weekend property within 1 hour of the Cbd and a fairly good amount of equity in those properties. While our household income is reasonable its hardly mind blowing, yet we still live a reasonably good lifestyle without being over the top extravagant.
We make do with a $15k used family car and I drive a $2000 van. All the “toys” are older classics that have good stable or appreciating values. There’s no need to have $100k worth of cars in the family that will depreciate down to $30k within 4 years. That seems to be the way people are going. I feel a bit out of place driving around this city in a 15 year old van amongst all the shiny $40k late model vehicles.

Of course, if affordability is a problem then possibly Canberra isn’t the place for you. My in-laws live in Albury. Brother in law earns 80k and a decent 4 bedroom down there can be picked up for $250k. His commute is 5 minutes, parking is free and they live very comfortably. He moved from Sydney and is loving how easy and stress free his life has become.

milkman said :

Maxwell said :

Save for ten years bwhahahahahahahah. That’ll work in the long run. If everyone has to save ten years for a deposit, what do you think will happen to sales volumes ?

Worked for people in times past. Could it bee that youngsters these days don’t have the patience (or character)?

The youth these days….

Maxwell said :

Save for ten years bwhahahahahahahah. That’ll work in the long run. If everyone has to save ten years for a deposit, what do you think will happen to sales volumes ?

Worked for people in times past. Could it bee that youngsters these days don’t have the patience (or character)?

trevar said :

Greedy Baby Boomers decide one house not enough. Buy more house. Expect gain. More Boomers buy. Price rise. Offspring of Boomers unable to participate in market to same extent. Price rise. Generational divide. Boomers die. Rejoicing. Price fall. Descendants get houses. Price stabilise. Equilibrium. Nirvana.

I’m going to die with a big reverse mortgage to fund my lifestyle when I don’t work. Sucked in GenXY screwed again mwah hahaha

OpenYourMind12:08 pm 29 Sep 12

shirty_bear said :

Kids these days :-\

Instead of renting a mcmansion and grizzling about the cost while playing your xbox on your 60″ 3D LED, going out and getting clattered every weekend at 9 bucks a drink, and doofing around in a fully sick WRX … do what your (OK, my) parents did; live in their parents’ converted garage for 3 years, eat cheeses grillies, and save everything. Then you’ve got your deposit, the loan is 20% smaller, and you’re away.

The only thing that’s changed is peoples’ lifestyle expectations. Homes always were expensive, always will be.

This is spot on. I get so sick of all the bitching about house prices. I’ve seen plenty of honest people buy their own house. As Shirty_Bear suggests, to buy a house is not easy and it never has been. It will take some sacrifices and hard work. But that goes for most things in life, I’m afraid.

The absurdity of our housing market is the excessively high amount lent on each house as a percentage of its’ value. Some lenders then also include the stamp duty so the buyer has virtually no equity at all. There is one major difference between our housing market and that in America. In America if you default and the lender takes the house that is it. In Australia if you default and the mortgagee enters into possession and sells the property you are still liable for the diffence between what you owed and what the mortgagee realised.
Susan from SpeedyLoanSearch

Truthiness said :

And here we see the illusion perpetuated.

“it isn’t unaffordable, its totally affordable if you go into debt!”

You’ll only have to pay half your wage to a bank for the rest of your life. That is on top of the third you’re already giving the government, so they can give it to a bank on your behalf. Life long indentured servitude in exchange for a place to sleep, and if you’re lucky, bread and circuses.

There is nothing immoral or perverted about going into debt to fund an asset that you will be using continuously for many years. You aren’t getting all of the benefits up front, so there’s no reason why you should have to stump up all the cost up front either. Instead it makes sense to spread the cost out over the time you’ll be using it.

And you know, instead of paying a bank for the rest of your life you could always pay rent instead – that way you’ll be paying only for the actual utility you get out of the house, and not bundling it up with investment in a somewhat dubious asset. But either way you’re going to have to pay for that roof over your head, unless you were lucky enough to have someone endow one to you.

Lunch, free, there isn’t.

I always want to know when talking “According to the ABS, average full-time adult earnings in Canberra are $1345 a week. Let’s not forget that most people looking to buy property are doing so as part of a household with two incomes. Average household earnings in Canberra are $1920”

Is the weekly income figure for household or full time adult before tax or after tax. Because that will make a lot difference.

Buy a tent

Credit growth has been the driver behind the Australian economy over the last ~15 years. Most of that credit was taken out to make our houses more expensive. We (our banks, and thus our taxpayers) owe interest on all of that to overseas creditors, interest which must be sucked from our economy. If our economic growth is largely due to borrowing, we should wonder how sustainable it is, and what the implications of a slow down in credit growth will be, given we still owe all that interest.

Following the capital investment phase, I fail to see rivers of gold flowing from the mining boom to the general population, given the small number of Australians directly employed, and the large amounts of foreign ownership (yay for foreign investment) and profit repatriation.

So, for those who suggest that house prices will continue to rise, I would like you to indicate how high is unreasonable? An average of 5, 8, 10, 15 times annual income? There must be an upper limit somewhere.

For those who suggest flat prices and rising incomes, what happens if there is widespread decline in standard of living? I suggest that a drop in the average standard of living is not unreasonable if there is future global financial turmoil. Why exactly are you so sure of increases in income in real terms?

I pose a more general question: What is the benefit of high house prices relative to incomes? I can’t think of it as anything more than a massive overhead on the rest of the economy, especially because we borrow all the money from overseas.

Grail said :

If the prices really were insane, no one would be buying. As it is, people are buying, so the prices are rational. Just because you can’t afford a place doesn’t mean the market is overpriced.

Live in a group house, stay with parents, or find cheaper rental accommodation. Save up your coins and in ten years or so you will have the money to buy a place. Even today I see apartments for sale in Hughes and Griffith for under $300k.

The first place I bought was worth about four and a half times my annual salary. It took three years living at home with my parents to raise the money to buy that place.

Lower your standards, don’t insist on a new house with mod cons as your first single person residence. Get a two bedroom place and rent the second bedroom out. Two bed 1 bath 1 garage in Forde for $360k. The hard part is raising the funds. You could start with a bedsit: a couple of those are for sale under $200k. Build some equity, use that to buy your bigger place. In five years you will have enough to cover the deposit on a new place.

Of course you could just rent for a whole longer. If you are not stuck in a place you have to pay a mortgage on for the next 30 years, you can move to where the work is.

Save for ten years bwhahahahahahahah. That’ll work in the long run. If everyone has to save ten years for a deposit, what do you think will happen to sales volumes ?

Kudos to WMC.

Solid gold.

VYBerlinaV8_is_back11:28 am 13 Aug 12

trevar said :

Greedy Baby Boomers decide one house not enough. Buy more house. Expect gain. More Boomers buy. Price rise. Offspring of Boomers unable to participate in market to same extent. Price rise. Generational divide. Boomers die. Rejoicing. Price fall. Descendants get houses. Price stabilise. Equilibrium. Nirvana.

Wishing something to change in price does not make it so, up or down…

Greedy Baby Boomers decide one house not enough. Buy more house. Expect gain. More Boomers buy. Price rise. Offspring of Boomers unable to participate in market to same extent. Price rise. Generational divide. Boomers die. Rejoicing. Price fall. Descendants get houses. Price stabilise. Equilibrium. Nirvana.

If the prices really were insane, no one would be buying. As it is, people are buying, so the prices are rational. Just because you can’t afford a place doesn’t mean the market is overpriced.

Live in a group house, stay with parents, or find cheaper rental accommodation. Save up your coins and in ten years or so you will have the money to buy a place. Even today I see apartments for sale in Hughes and Griffith for under $300k.

The first place I bought was worth about four and a half times my annual salary. It took three years living at home with my parents to raise the money to buy that place.

Lower your standards, don’t insist on a new house with mod cons as your first single person residence. Get a two bedroom place and rent the second bedroom out. Two bed 1 bath 1 garage in Forde for $360k. The hard part is raising the funds. You could start with a bedsit: a couple of those are for sale under $200k. Build some equity, use that to buy your bigger place. In five years you will have enough to cover the deposit on a new place.

Of course you could just rent for a whole longer. If you are not stuck in a place you have to pay a mortgage on for the next 30 years, you can move to where the work is.

Patience is the key and as a society we are not patient. The only reason, I could buy a house, was by staying at home a bit longer, fortunately my parents decided to save my board as well to contribute to a deposit. But now I’ve owned it for a few years, paid more than I needed to, I live a much more comfortabel lifestyle. I have to admit a much more impatient lifestyle too. I doubt I’d have the discipline to save for a house now. I keep telling myself to get a rental property, but the money and hassle stops me.

Still the fact Australia missed out onthe fun of the GFC has meant we live in a pretty expensive country right now. It may soon be time “For the recession we had to have”.

VYBerlinaV8_is_back10:31 am 13 Aug 12

Maxwell said :

VYBerlinaV8_is_back said :

HenryBG said :

I can’t even begin to imagine the pain of having to use 50%+ of your income to service a mortgage. Horrendous.

It depends on your income. As income rises, you can spend proportionally more of it without incurring hardship.

For example, paying half your income if you earn $40k per year would make things pretty hard, but if you earn $200k per year you could still live a good lifestyle. And don’t forget, as time goes by and everything else increases (including your income), your payments don’t – in real terms they fall.

Which is why everyone wants to buy a house, the benefits are obvious. But a corrupt, greedy lot have made a house not a house to live in but an expensive investment vehicle for high income earners. The prices being asked are just insane.

Prices have risen because rising incomes coupled with lower interest rates and easier borrowing criteria have significantly increased the buying power the public has, leading to price rises. Also, property in Canberra was quite cheap towards the end of the 1990’s, so a bug run up occurred.

There’s no desperate rush to buy, though. I’d say you have several years before prices in Canberra move upward by meaningful amounts.

VYBerlinaV8_is_back said :

HenryBG said :

I can’t even begin to imagine the pain of having to use 50%+ of your income to service a mortgage. Horrendous.

It depends on your income. As income rises, you can spend proportionally more of it without incurring hardship.

For example, paying half your income if you earn $40k per year would make things pretty hard, but if you earn $200k per year you could still live a good lifestyle. And don’t forget, as time goes by and everything else increases (including your income), your payments don’t – in real terms they fall.

Which is why everyone wants to buy a house, the benefits are obvious. But a corrupt, greedy lot have made a house not a house to live in but an expensive investment vehicle for high income earners. The prices being asked are just insane.

Maxwell said :

shirty_bear said :

Kids these days :-\

Instead of renting a mcmansion and grizzling about the cost while playing your xbox on your 60″ 3D LED, going out and getting clattered every weekend at 9 bucks a drink, and doofing around in a fully sick WRX … do what your (OK, my) parents did; live in their parents’ converted garage for 3 years, eat cheeses grillies, and save everything. Then you’ve got your deposit, the loan is 20% smaller, and you’re away.

The only thing that’s changed is peoples’ lifestyle expectations. Homes always were expensive, always will be.

I allocate myself a budget which I never meet, so I end up spending $200 a week for food, entertainment and purchases. So I can assure you it is not entertainment expenses doing it.

As with most people of my generation I do have that drug, gambling and fancy Sydney hooker addictions to contend with.

A WRX is just not good enough. I’ll only drive a car which is at most 1 year old.

Herp derp look at me I’m an old person and I have no frigging Idea so I’m just going to grumble about bullshit I know nothing about and make up crap.

What the hell is a 3d tv anyway ? Might go drive my WRX down to the fancy restaurant for dinner with my unicorn and see if he knows.

Good point, well made. Sorry if I offended your Gen-Y sense of entitlement. Derp.

VYBerlinaV8_is_back9:27 am 13 Aug 12

HenryBG said :

I can’t even begin to imagine the pain of having to use 50%+ of your income to service a mortgage. Horrendous.

It depends on your income. As income rises, you can spend proportionally more of it without incurring hardship.

For example, paying half your income if you earn $40k per year would make things pretty hard, but if you earn $200k per year you could still live a good lifestyle. And don’t forget, as time goes by and everything else increases (including your income), your payments don’t – in real terms they fall.

bundah said :

Ok not Canberra but nonetheless probably not too disimilar.Inflated much?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Real_Melbourne_House_Prices_1965_-_2010b.JPG

Excellent graphic.

I can’t even begin to imagine the pain of having to use 50%+ of your income to service a mortgage. Horrendous.

Of course, if you have no life and no friends and bludge off your parents until you’re almost 30, it might be easier.

VYBerlinaV8_is_back9:16 am 13 Aug 12

Darkfalz said :

If I could find a decent house for 400k, I’d buy two. Decent houses in Canberra start at 650k. Which makes the 200k deposit we have look like nothing.

650k? Your standards are pretty high. You can get nice 4 bedroom homes in Jerrabomberra for less than that.

If I could find a decent house for 400k, I’d buy two. Decent houses in Canberra start at 650k. Which makes the 200k deposit we have look like nothing.

Ok not Canberra but nonetheless probably not too disimilar.Inflated much?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Real_Melbourne_House_Prices_1965_-_2010b.JPG

Very high population growth since the Howard years has kept demand for housing up, and saw that crazy price increase in the 90s. I hear the OP’s pain, and yeah, $400k “affordable”? That’s almost half a million dollars.

I noted the reports that some people were seeing negative equity, as it was this that started the American slide into the American Financial Crisis that became the GFC. These in many cases were the “bad loans”. People are borrowing so much of the house’s value, that any reduction in the “value” sees that loan sitting on a termite mound, rather than bricks and mortar.

It will be interesting to see what happens, how much the mining boom can prop up the rest of the country, which if you have a good look at it sans the mining, is not doing so well. And if the Coalition gets into government next year, Canberra will be an “interesting” place real-estate-wise.

shirty_bear said :

Kids these days :-\

Instead of renting a mcmansion and grizzling about the cost while playing your xbox on your 60″ 3D LED, going out and getting clattered every weekend at 9 bucks a drink, and doofing around in a fully sick WRX … do what your (OK, my) parents did; live in their parents’ converted garage for 3 years, eat cheeses grillies, and save everything. Then you’ve got your deposit, the loan is 20% smaller, and you’re away.

The only thing that’s changed is peoples’ lifestyle expectations. Homes always were expensive, always will be.

I allocate myself a budget which I never meet, so I end up spending $200 a week for food, entertainment and purchases. So I can assure you it is not entertainment expenses doing it.

As with most people of my generation I do have that drug, gambling and fancy Sydney hooker addictions to contend with.

A WRX is just not good enough. I’ll only drive a car which is at most 1 year old.

Herp derp look at me I’m an old person and I have no frigging Idea so I’m just going to grumble about bullshit I know nothing about and make up crap.

What the hell is a 3d tv anyway ? Might go drive my WRX down to the fancy restaurant for dinner with my unicorn and see if he knows.

I bought my first place back in 1987 and I’ve owned 3 more since. I lost most of the value of one of my houses in the property settlement that followed my divorce, which wasn’t great, but them’s the breaks, and I managed to recover from that catastrophe.

I now have just 4 more fortnightly payments to make on my current mortgage and that will be the end of 25 years of debt and I’ll finally own the roof over my head.

It is possible. It takes work, discipline and sacrifice, but I think the results are worth it in the end.

Diggety said :

Is it immoral of me to want a housing market collapse?

Nope. The sooner renters recognise that their interests aren’t necessarily aligned with home owners the better.

PrinceOfAles8:33 pm 12 Aug 12

Woody Mann-Caruso said :

It’s a better post if you treat it as lyrics to Billy Joel’s We Didn’t Start The Fire.

Asset prices facing doom
Aussies have a housing boom
For sale
Didn’t sell
Wage spiral
What the hell

Housing price insanity
Got negative equity
Big buyers
Bankrupted
Hopes on the rocks

Job losses
Mining boom
Public servants facing gloom
Anyone got 80K
Homelessness is on the way

How much is the deposit
God just think of all the debt
On an asset that won’t grow
Is the boom starting to slow

We didn’t start the shortage
We just got in early with a tiny mortgage
We didn’t start the shortage
We’re not gonna fight it
In fact we’re delighted

Lolz. Thats gold!!

Kids these days :-\

Instead of renting a mcmansion and grizzling about the cost while playing your xbox on your 60″ 3D LED, going out and getting clattered every weekend at 9 bucks a drink, and doofing around in a fully sick WRX … do what your (OK, my) parents did; live in their parents’ converted garage for 3 years, eat cheeses grillies, and save everything. Then you’ve got your deposit, the loan is 20% smaller, and you’re away.

The only thing that’s changed is peoples’ lifestyle expectations. Homes always were expensive, always will be.

Meh.

Prices have been dropping in real terms for a couple of years, and this will continue for a few more. Incomes rise and catch up. Then off it goes again.

This has been done to death in this site before.

Truthiness said :

No idea is developed in a vacuum, everything is a remix. Restructuring or refining an idea does not create a piece of property at each step. Humanity collectively depends on our ability to share information, not on our ability to hoard it.

Can you imagine if cavemen had patent lawyers? We’d pay royalties on fire and the wheel.

Cavemen? John Keogh patented the circular transportation facilitation device in 2001!
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn965-wheel-patented-in-australia.html

One of the bigger problems with housing is that people aren’t hooking up until later in life. People prefer to rent because a house is an expensive thing to split in a divorce.

Maybe Canberra should look at legalizing something currently illegal so we get some more funding coming in!

wildturkeycanoe6:41 pm 12 Aug 12

HenryBG said :

wildturkeycanoe said :

. I have, on one income, with a family of 3 kids as well. It only costs $550 per week and will one day be mine. I.

Average earnings are less than twice that.

So, assuming you have $80K in the bank, you can borrow $350K to cover house & stamp duty as long as you are happy that >50% of your earnings are contributing to the Banks’ latest record annual profit.

I am pleased that over 50% of my income is paying for my own house and not going to a rich investor’s pocket. Nobody needs $80k deposit to buy a house and if you did, you wouldn’t be borrowing another $350k on top to get into the housing market, you would instead go for a beginner’s house valued around $350k, leaving only $270k to borrow. That does not equate to over $550/week in repayments and becomes affordable as opposed to similar property rent values.

Truthiness said :

And here we see the illusion perpetuated.

“it isn’t unaffordable, its totally affordable if you go into debt!”

You’ll only have to pay half your wage to a bank for the rest of your life. That is on top of the third you’re already giving the government, so they can give it to a bank on your behalf. Life long indentured servitude in exchange for a place to sleep, and if you’re lucky, bread and circuses.

We are all in servitude to the government and banks for our entire lives. 30% of wages, 10% in GST on everything else. Are you saying that everyone should be given a house free of charge just because it is a necessity? All necessities have to be paid for, otherwise there would be no incentive for anybody to work at all. This is life, get used to it. There aren’t many places in the world you would like to live in that offer free housing. If there are, let me in on the secret.

Diggety said :

Is it immoral of me to want a housing market collapse?

On the contrary – it’s immoral not to. A house is supposed to be something live in – not something you live for.

Where are all the people coming from to fill all those blocks of flats that are being built?

Just because ideas are “property” now, doesn’t mean they have to be. The mere existence of a subjective construct in a given socioeconomic paradigm does not necessarily correlate to that construct’s objective value.

The very idea of “ownership” is speaks volumes to the self importance of our society. The notion that a monkey, a watery bag of cells, is more important than the rest of life. We are newborn infants scrambling across the surface of a rock which has been here for billions of years, and we have the gall to say we own it. It is a shame our “ownership” of earth does not stretch so far as responsibility.

There is nothing entirely new in existence. DNA is a remix of molecules, mammals are a remix of fish, the bicycle is a remix of wheels and avatar is a remix of Pocahontas. Everything is a remix, it is only us who are so greedy as to call our discoveries “inventions”.

The wheel, fire, flight, math, science and art were not invented, they were discovered, by imitating and remixing nature. Which itself has been remixing and discovering for aeons, like a fractal unfolding itself.

Jethro said :

a burst property bubble is going to be a pretty bad thing for a nation in which so much private wealth is (rightly or wrongly) tied up in property.

Better to see a plateauing for prices for 5 or 10 years and let wages catch up, which is pretty much what is happening.

Very true, so many jobs and so much government revenue is tied up in the property, construction, banking and related industries, that a substantial price crash would be completely devastating for the Australian economy.

Jethro said :

House prices have been flat or slowly deflating for 2 years. I can’t see anything that could possibly lead to a sudden turnaround in this trend.

I certainly can, I’ll list some for you:

-The government pulls some ridiculous stimulus measures to prop up the ailing property industry (e.g. first home vendors grants, allowing more foreign investment in property, etc.)
-Increased job losses force people to sell, flooding the market (as a result of Europe imploding, China imploding, the end of the mining boom, GFC 2.0, etc.)
-The negatively geared investors who own approximately 2/3rds of Australia’s investment properties realise that being negatively geared in the face of ongoing flat or negative price growth is akin to pissing money down the drain, and sell their investments en masse.

rosscoact said :

Ok a couple of issues here. Generally a 10% deposit is required not 20%

$40,000 would take about 4 years to save if you put away $300 per fortnight (at 5.75% interest).

Almost spot on 4.5 years to be precise. But don’t forget the $15k on top of that for stamp duty, legal and loan application fees bumps up your initial payment to ~$55k. That’ll take you around 6 years to save, and that’s assuming that you can get the phenomenally high interest rate of 5.75% over that period.

Personally, I’m perfectly happy having my rent subsidised by my negatively geared landlord, and will continue to bide my time whilst real prices continue to fall.

screaming banshee5:44 pm 12 Aug 12

Is the insanity you refer to the endless number of whingers that think houses are suddenly going to be 90% cheaper, and are waiting to show all those stupid homeowners who work their arse off to afford a house.

Truthiness said :

No idea is developed in a vacuum, everything is a remix. Restructuring or refining an idea does not create a piece of property at each step. Humanity collectively depends on our ability to share information, not on our ability to hoard it.

Can you imagine if cavemen had patent lawyers? We’d pay royalties on fire and the wheel.

Don’t give the Greenies any more ideas…

Because a bit of misunderstood Stalmanism invalidates the very real existence of trillion dollar artistic industries.

HenryBG said :

wildturkeycanoe said :

. I have, on one income, with a family of 3 kids as well. It only costs $550 per week and will one day be mine. I.

Average earnings are less than twice that.

No, they are more than that. According to the ABS, average full-time adult earnings in Canberra are $1345 a week. Let’s not forget that most people looking to buy property are doing so as part of a household with two incomes. Average household earnings in Canberra are $1920, or close to 4 times the amount payable on the mortgage for an entry level home.

Maxwell said :

$550 a week purchased as of… when ? You’re depressed about prices as of then imagine buying now ! Or even in the future.. my crystal ball tells me the future…

I purchased my house 2 years ago, right about when house prices peaked (unlucky me).

My weekly mortgage payment is $520. Similar houses to the one I bought have sold for about $20K less than I paid, so if you bought now in my area your payments would be even less. Similar houses rent for about $420 a week, so the difference between rent and mortgage is just over $5K a year (excluding rates, maintenance, etc).

House prices in the ACT are not going up any time soon, so now is a good time to be squirreling away as much money as possible so that you can buy at more affordable levels in a few years time. Whilst I am obviously not thrilled that house prices have dipped slightly since I bought, I see it as a long term investment. In the long run house prices and rents will ultimately go up. I imagine that the amount people will pay to rent a similar house to mine in 15 years times will be more than my current mortgage payments.

I’m also taking advantage of the current low interest rates by paying more than my minimum fortnightly repayments, so hopefully by then my house will only be a few years away from being paid off, if not already paid for.

Once that happens I will have close to no housing costs (again with the exception of rates and maintenance) and an asset. People who refuse to buy are essentially locking themselves in to a lifetime of ever-increasing rents – something that is really going to hurt them once they hit retirement age.

There are plenty of excuses not to buy, but in the long term you will almost certainly be better off owning a home that eventually gives you virtually free accommodation and is an asset worth hundreds of thousands of dollars. Short-term dips in house prices only matter if you sell during the downturn.

I think you’ll find it not only immoral, but sacrilegious, criminal and terrorist. You have confessed to thought crime, undermining the holy economy of the homeland.

It is capitaless scum like you that are ruining our sacred inflation rates! You shall be sacrificed with interest upon the altar of private prisons, an offering to the fiat gods of central banking! Hallowed be their fractional reserve!

Tetranitrate4:43 pm 12 Aug 12

Grail said :

You can do it too! House prices aren’t going to fall just because you can’t afford one.

LOL
They are falling right now and have been more or less for two years. It’s a slow melt, sure, but so was Japan.

Just be thankful you are not living in eastern Europe, Spain, France, England, or Greece.

Is it immoral of me to want a housing market collapse?

And here we see the illusion perpetuated.

“it isn’t unaffordable, its totally affordable if you go into debt!”

You’ll only have to pay half your wage to a bank for the rest of your life. That is on top of the third you’re already giving the government, so they can give it to a bank on your behalf. Life long indentured servitude in exchange for a place to sleep, and if you’re lucky, bread and circuses.

wildturkeycanoe said :

I can answer one question for you. An honest person can put a roof over their heads. I have, on one income, with a family of 3 kids as well. It only costs $550 per week and will one day be mine. I agree prices are ludicrous, but it isn’t impossible, just VERY challenging on the budget. It also helps if you work lots of overtime to make ends meet and only buy cheap groceries. You also don’t have a life because you can’t afford to do anything or go anywhere, which allows for more time to work to pay off your house. Gawd, I’m starting to sound as depressed as you…..
I am happy in the knowledge that I will own my house before I retire [just] and we aren’t paying off someone else’s place anymore.

$550 a week purchased as of… when ? You’re depressed about prices as of then imagine buying now ! Or even in the future.. my crystal ball tells me the future…

Oh yes. One day I’ll get married to a lovely young 40 year old woman and when we decide to take her ovaries out of the freezer and artificially implant them with my sperm we’ll be able to ask our 85 year old parents for a loan, so that we can scrape together the 400k deposit on that 3 million dollar 3 bedroom unit in Yass (now the urban boundary of Canberra).

The bank will need a guarantor, as 85% of our combined income will be going towards the 40 year mortage. By 2027 house prices doubled every five years ! Making the average 3 bedroom house 4 million dollars ! We started small and are building up equity. Get in now or miss out forever.

“The law of numbers has finally arrived” — what’s that supposed to mean?

$80k is just over one year of an average salary, thus I would assume that if you were to live in group house or bottom end rental you should be able to save that money in a few years, maybe ten if you’re really struggling. Use term deposits, keep rolling your dollars over. You are competing in this market with families who have two salaries, so you have to be much smarter with your money than they need to be.

There are plenty of places available for less than $400k, in fact I’m off to inspect one in Brisbane on Thursday. Oh … don’t buy your first home for yourself to live in. Use that first homeowner’s grant and whatever state incentives are available to buy your first rental property. Any money you can pump into that is earning you five to ten times as much buying power. Thus another few years of saving to get another $80k in equity in that property will buy you about $800k with LMI. For your first property, you might need to look at a one or two bedroom apartment that doesn’t have two parking spaces.

It took me ten years renting and living with parents to save up the money for my first place.

You can do it too! House prices aren’t going to fall just because you can’t afford one.

wildturkeycanoe said :

. I have, on one income, with a family of 3 kids as well. It only costs $550 per week and will one day be mine. I.

Average earnings are less than twice that.

So, assuming you have $80K in the bank, you can borrow $350K to cover house & stamp duty as long as you are happy that >50% of your earnings are contributing to the Banks’ latest record annual profit.

Ok a couple of issues here. Generally a 10% deposit is required not 20%

$40,000 would take about 4 years to save if you put away $300 per fortnight (at 5.75% interest).

In four years the ACT recession caused by the Libs wholesale public service sackings in 2013 will be on the way back up.

Start saving champ, it’s a great time to do so

No idea is developed in a vacuum, everything is a remix. Restructuring or refining an idea does not create a piece of property at each step. Humanity collectively depends on our ability to share information, not on our ability to hoard it.

Can you imagine if cavemen had patent lawyers? We’d pay royalties on fire and the wheel.

Woody Mann-Caruso3:44 pm 12 Aug 12

It’s a better post if you treat it as lyrics to Billy Joel’s We Didn’t Start The Fire.

Asset prices facing doom
Aussies have a housing boom
For sale
Didn’t sell
Wage spiral
What the hell

Housing price insanity
Got negative equity
Big buyers
Bankrupted
Hopes on the rocks

Job losses
Mining boom
Public servants facing gloom
Anyone got 80K
Homelessness is on the way

How much is the deposit
God just think of all the debt
On an asset that won’t grow
Is the boom starting to slow

We didn’t start the shortage
We just got in early with a tiny mortgage
We didn’t start the shortage
We’re not gonna fight it
In fact we’re delighted

WMC is on fire today.

The premise of your article is that house prices are too high and need to drop.

Yet, as you recognised when you mentioned that some homeowners are starting to see negative equity (in other words – when the price drop that you want to see actually occurs), a burst property bubble is going to be a pretty bad thing for a nation in which so much private wealth is (rightly or wrongly) tied up in property.

Better to see a plateauing for prices for 5 or 10 years and let wages catch up, which is pretty much what is happening. House prices have been flat or slowly deflating for 2 years. I can’t see anything that could possibly lead to a sudden turnaround in this trend.

Truthiness said :

Infinite growth is impossible in a closed system, the illusion can not hold. The world is asking questions, which forge makes gold from air? Money has always been debt, the wolves are in the hen house.

Have you heard of the economic value of artistic works? It’s not a zero sum game.

But I certainly received the distressed tone loud and clear.

I am in the same boat – finally earning a decent income but can’t save/get a loan because I am paying so much rent. It’s very depressing.

The illusion that all could be landed gentry was always the bait in a debt trap. The “market” does not care about universal emancipation, capitalistic freedom is never “free”, let alone fair.

While there is a bankster ready to turn an inflated asking price into debt and interest, the prices grow. When the debt becomes too odious to manage, when the yoke hangs too heavy, the debt slave becomes a criminal and the debt masters tighten the reigns.

Infinite growth is impossible in a closed system, the illusion can not hold. The world is asking questions, which forge makes gold from air? Money has always been debt, the wolves are in the hen house.

wildturkeycanoe3:30 pm 12 Aug 12

I can answer one question for you. An honest person can put a roof over their heads. I have, on one income, with a family of 3 kids as well. It only costs $550 per week and will one day be mine. I agree prices are ludicrous, but it isn’t impossible, just VERY challenging on the budget. It also helps if you work lots of overtime to make ends meet and only buy cheap groceries. You also don’t have a life because you can’t afford to do anything or go anywhere, which allows for more time to work to pay off your house. Gawd, I’m starting to sound as depressed as you…..
I am happy in the knowledge that I will own my house before I retire [just] and we aren’t paying off someone else’s place anymore.

gp said :

Questions? Too many? Redundant? Rhetorical? Passive voice sentences? Trying too hard? Only buying what you can afford? Enforced savings model? Having to buy wisely? Carefully?

Drama? Drama!

Ha ha ! You may find it funny. I find it sad. C’mon. Surely there is another 10 years of 8% a year compound growth left in the market ! In another 7 years time, average house on the fringes of a city will be snapped up for the bargain price of one million dollars.

Young people will just need to learn to start small with a tent and a gas burner, after a few years of equity growth on said tent in the public park, they can move up to a land rental scheme for someone’s tin shed in their back yard.

gentoopenguin2:52 pm 12 Aug 12

The overuse of exclamation marks was a tip-off for me…

Questions? Too many? Redundant? Rhetorical? Passive voice sentences? Trying too hard? Only buying what you can afford? Enforced savings model? Having to buy wisely? Carefully?

Drama? Drama!

Daily Digest

Want the best Canberra news delivered daily? Every day we package the most popular Riotact stories and send them straight to your inbox. Sign-up now for trusted local news that will never be behind a paywall.

By submitting your email address you are agreeing to Region Group's terms and conditions and privacy policy.