The Raiders NRLW side has added impetus for a new stadium, and the government has acknowledged that GIO’s days are numbered. Photo: Tim Gavel.
Let’s be clear: Andrew Barr wants to build a new stadium at Bruce.
The government may have used the WT Partnership report as a blunt instrument to show why the Civic pool site was not going to fly, but perhaps the big numbers quoted have done taxpayers a favour.
The estimates take into account a bunch of things that haven’t previously been on the table, but perhaps they should be, plus contingencies and cost escalations to 2030.
They show just how easily the project cost could blow out. It’s called risk management.
They are sobering figures, but the kind government doing due diligence would want in order to avoid project landmines.
Mr Barr says a stadium can be built, with Commonwealth and possibly unspecified non-government support, for a lot less than the range of estimates provided, probably between $500 million and $1 billion, but it would have to be managed tightly.
That’s the point. It is no use commissioning a report that doesn’t cover all possibilities and gives you false security with a pleasing number. Underquoting can get a government in all kinds of bother.
Remember, WT Partnership was not working with an already set design but with scenarios.
The estimate for construction of a low-cost stadium not in the city, including a multi-storey car park, was $608.5 million, but that figure more than doubles when the 30 per cent contingency, latent conditions, escalation of 4.5 per cent a year, design fees and other factors are included.
The report provides government with a guide and shows where it can bring those numbers back to more manageable levels.
Even then, there will still be plenty in the ACT who will argue that a new stadium might be nice, but there are other much more important needs to be met. And they are not all anti-sport.
However, Mr Barr has acknowledged that the current 47-year-old stadium is nearing its end of life, although it is far from falling over, and the government has accepted a new modern facility, purpose-built for both rugby codes and soccer, is warranted.
It is just a matter of when.
That’s what the key stakeholders want to know. No more feasibility studies, no more in the never-never speculation. They want a timeline with commencement and completion dates.
For a government juggling lots of infrastructure balls, that may be difficult.
However, Mr Barr has always maintained an order of priority: the Canberra Theatre redevelopment, with the stadium and the Convention Centre and entertainment pavilion roughly on the same timeline.
Let’s not forget the Northside Hospital and light rail stage 2B.
This is all predicated on Labor being returned to power in October. What will the Canberra Liberals do if they are form government?
The WT report gave Opposition Leader Elizabeth Lee the opportunity to attack Labor’s intentions, ridicule the numbers and, with good measure, call into doubt costings, or the lack of costings, for the government’s infrastructure program.
Ms Lee has always supported the Civic stadium option but has stopped short of promising more than just looking into it.
The Raiders and Brumbies will be hoping for a commitment that would keep their dreams alive of playing in town.
But once in office, a Liberal Government, even without the burden of light rail to Woden, will face the same realities that convinced Mr Barr the Civic pool site – now slated for the Convention Centre – wasn’t viable.
It’s just too small and to engineer a stadium would turn it into a money pit. Is there another site?
The Liberals could, of course, rearrange priorities, but with the Canberra theatre redevelopment edging closer to breaking ground with a contractor being sought, it would be difficult to bench such an important project that does have a strong business case.
So, as a Chief Minister committed to Budget repair, Ms Lee will face her own wicked problems to solve.
There has been much hysteria about the WT report, particularly from those who won’t give up on the city stadium idea, but the bottom line is that Canberra will get a new stadium, no matter which party wins in October.
The government has 2033 in mind to get the job done as part of a sports, education and health precinct in Bruce. Can the Liberals do better?
It may come down to whether Canberrans prefer a stadium to light rail or before a new theatre or northside hospital.
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