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“we are not forecasting any positive growth in the Canberra housing market over the next couple of years”

By johnboy - 11 April 2013 15

The Australian is running with* the advice of one Tim Coates who sees a quiet time over the next few years for the Canberra housing market due to the glut of apartments coming onto the market:

“People always tend to invest in areas they understand — some invest within 20km of their family home,” he says. “There wouldn’t be a huge amount of people in other capital cities that choose to invest in Canberra.”

He believes Sydney is the best option for investment but if people still want to invest in Canberra, he says “definitely avoid apartments”.

* Google the headline to get around the paywall.

What’s Your opinion?


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15 Responses to
“we are not forecasting any positive growth in the Canberra housing market over the next couple of years”
Jivrashia 1:28 pm 12 Apr 13

if people still want to invest in Canberra, he says “definitely avoid apartments”.

Because the average quality of apartments built in Canberra is so questionable?

NoImRight 12:41 pm 12 Apr 13

BelcoMan said :

NoImRight said :

Awesome! We can now play our drinking game again. Shot every time someone says “bubble” or rants about negative gearing and/or Govts manipulating the market too much or not enough. Might have to add every post someone makes a generalisation about either where they live or where others live as if no one else could possibly have seen the area.

I think you are right here as you don’t have to kneel down to be triumphant in this market.

I do believe the generalisations have already been made which probably suits those living in the “perceived lower socio-economic” areas. Let the haters hate or is it just people afraid of what they don’t understand? UFO’s etc?

I dont think we need to tell people to get on their bikes just yet. A simple Canberra ride around would show you a forum with very little left to say. Maybe you have your own drinking game ?

BelcoMan 11:57 am 12 Apr 13

NoImRight said :

Awesome! We can now play our drinking game again. Shot every time someone says “bubble” or rants about negative gearing and/or Govts manipulating the market too much or not enough. Might have to add every post someone makes a generalisation about either where they live or where others live as if no one else could possibly have seen the area.

I think you are right here as you don’t have to kneel down to be triumphant in this market.

I do believe the generalisations have already been made which probably suits those living in the “perceived lower socio-economic” areas. Let the haters hate or is it just people afraid of what they don’t understand? UFO’s etc?

NoImRight 10:56 am 12 Apr 13

Awesome! We can now play our drinking game again. Shot every time someone says “bubble” or rants about negative gearing and/or Govts manipulating the market too much or not enough. Might have to add every post someone makes a generalisation about either where they live or where others live as if no one else could possibly have seen the area.

milkman 6:47 am 12 Apr 13

KB1971 said :

milkman said :

Queanbeyan (and Jerrabomberra) represent far better value than most Canberra suburbs.

How so? Most of Jerrobomberra is more expensive than say the Lanyon Valley, no real difference in the quality or type of homes. It really is no better, in value or choice.

Queenbeyan? Well its has a lot of cheap housing, not necessarily “value for money” though.

Uh, closer to the city than Lanyon vally, larger blocks, nicer homes, established trees and gardens…

poetix 11:10 pm 11 Apr 13

milkman said :

Queanbeyan (and Jerrabomberra) represent far better value than most Canberra suburbs.

I just saw an ad for a cute weatherboard in Q going for well under $400,000 (asking price) on a decent block.

So if you were looking to buy now, yes, this would be much better value and much more attractive than Crace.

Incidentally, has anyone seen the print ads for Googong? I quote a little:

‘We are glad, far from sad, we’re not smug…well just a tad.
Because we’re proud Googonians.’

Apparently that should be sung to ‘Along the Road to Gundagai’. I don’t know why.

JimCharles 9:38 pm 11 Apr 13

KB1971 said :

milkman said :

Queanbeyan (and Jerrabomberra) represent far better value than most Canberra suburbs.

How so? Most of Jerrobomberra is more expensive than say the Lanyon Valley, no real difference in the quality or type of homes. It really is no better, in value or choice.

Queenbeyan? Well its has a lot of cheap housing, not necessarily “value for money” though.

Does it have any good areas except for Jerra?
They give a good discount on stamp duty and a decent 1st time buyer allowance over in NSW, but i guess people just add that to their selling price like they do everywhere else that offers a Government incentive?

KB1971 6:35 pm 11 Apr 13

milkman said :

Queanbeyan (and Jerrabomberra) represent far better value than most Canberra suburbs.

How so? Most of Jerrobomberra is more expensive than say the Lanyon Valley, no real difference in the quality or type of homes. It really is no better, in value or choice.

Queenbeyan? Well its has a lot of cheap housing, not necessarily “value for money” though.

milkman 5:37 pm 11 Apr 13

Queanbeyan (and Jerrabomberra) represent far better value than most Canberra suburbs.

Kerryhemsley 5:14 pm 11 Apr 13

justsomeaussie said :

p1 said :

why would people be any likely to look to Shelbyville Queenbeyan then anywhere else?

Well that’s the point isn’t it! You can have an 8 minute drive to Kingston from a house/apartment in Queanbeyan that’s comparible to plenty of other areas in Canberra for it’s *niceness*.

Simply do the math. The fact that you said “Shelbyville” is perfect for investors because it means that quality affordable houses and apartments can be bought in Queanbeayan because Canberra people still think that way. In ten years it will be looked on like many suburbs in Sydney that went from bad to good areas.

“do the math” from justsomeaussie – anyone else find that slightly amusing?

justsomeaussie 5:00 pm 11 Apr 13

p1 said :

why would people be any likely to look to Shelbyville Queenbeyan then anywhere else?

Well that’s the point isn’t it! You can have an 8 minute drive to Kingston from a house/apartment in Queanbeyan that’s comparible to plenty of other areas in Canberra for it’s *niceness*.

Simply do the math. The fact that you said “Shelbyville” is perfect for investors because it means that quality affordable houses and apartments can be bought in Queanbeayan because Canberra people still think that way. In ten years it will be looked on like many suburbs in Sydney that went from bad to good areas.

p1 1:06 pm 11 Apr 13

neanderthalsis said :

So units will be cheap, houses will stay expensive…

Which is the way it should be, yes?

justsomeaussie said :

The Canberra born and bred need to get over their egos and start looking at Queanbeyan for great investments to be had.

If we were talking about people buying houses to live in, you might be valid with the “get over themselves” comments. But since we are talking about buying investment properties, why would people be any likely to look to Shelbyville Queenbeyan then anywhere else?

justsomeaussie 12:46 pm 11 Apr 13

The Canberra born and bred need to get over their egos and start looking at Queanbeyan for great investments to be had.

With a whole heaps of apartments coming online in the next couple of years there are great 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom apartments that can be picked up for 60k less than over then border and they’ll rent for $400 per week.

neanderthalsis 11:07 am 11 Apr 13

Grail said :

Depends on where you buy. Apartments near the soon-to-be-realised light rail, or with access to the inevitable high speed rail terminal, will attract a premium while houses in car-only suburbs will flatline or drop.

This is of course an investor’s perspective, looking at the 10’year timeframe in which light rail and high speed rail (and oil crisis) are going to happen.

Tim Coates is no doubt issuing this advice ahead of investments being made by his clients. After all, to ensure the best purchase price for your buyer, you want to temporarily deflate the market right?

A brisk stroll around the Belconnen town centre will take you past the still largely vacant Oracle apartments, the Linq site on Eastern Valley Way, the new Altitude building, the other two new ones between the Labor Club and Mirrimar, Kagara around the side of the lake and I’m sure I have forgotten some. There seems to be hundreds, if not thousands of units going up but little lands being released and very few houses being out in the ‘burbs.

So units will be cheap, houses will stay expensive…

Grail 10:18 am 11 Apr 13

Depends on where you buy. Apartments near the soon-to-be-realised light rail, or with access to the inevitable high speed rail terminal, will attract a premium while houses in car-only suburbs will flatline or drop.

This is of course an investor’s perspective, looking at the 10’year timeframe in which light rail and high speed rail (and oil crisis) are going to happen.

Tim Coates is no doubt issuing this advice ahead of investments being made by his clients. After all, to ensure the best purchase price for your buyer, you want to temporarily deflate the market right?

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