Crossbenchers are not guaranteeing anything if there's a hung parliament

MPs and senators in the current make-up of the Federal Parliament’s crossbenches are not inclined to enter into formal agreements with either side of politics if the imminent election results in a hung parliament.

And according to some third-party groups aiming to influence the outcome of the election, that’s enough reason not to re-elect them or any other independents and minor parties.

Two media reports published Friday (28 February), one by the ABC and the other by Guardian Australia, reveal just how sharply the battle for power is escalating outside of the major parties.

If neither Labor nor the Coalition gain enough votes in their own right to form majority government, they will each seek to lead a minority government with the support of enough crossbench MPs to get them over the line with 76 votes in the House of Representatives.

But blanket support is not guaranteed, with the Greens and most independents in both the Reps and the Senate saying they would force negotiation with the major parties one bill at a time.

In the Lower House where government is formed, such an approach would prove extremely difficult for whichever party has a tenuous grip on the Treasury benches.

An investigation by the ABC shows all but two of the current 19 Lower House crossbenchers are open to forming formal agreements with whoever wins the highest number of seats.

The Greens would be open to an agreement with Labor, but not with the Coalition, but most of the others say it would be piecemeal negotiations rather than a blanket agreement.

Member for Goldstein Zoe Daniel told the ABC that such an approach would force greater accountability.

“I won’t be making any rigid deals with either of the major parties on how I will behave over the course of the parliament,” she said.

“Every piece of legislation, every policy will be treated on its merits, no matter who is in government, if I am lucky enough to be sitting on the crossbench.”

A similar sentiment was expressed by most of the current crossbenchers, with independent Andrew Wilkie – who helped Julia Gillard form a minority government – saying he had learned from his experience.

“When you have a formal agreement, even if that agreement only locks you in to supporting the government on confidence and for its budget, which ultimately was the only thing I was required to do in my deal with Julia Gillard, there’s still an unwritten understanding that you’re much closer to the government,” he said.

“They certainly pull you close. In some ways, you are kind of joining the tribe.

“It’s a very subtle sort of thing, and with the benefit of hindsight, I did lose a lot of freedom of manoeuvring back then.

“And I am quick to tell my crossbench colleagues when the agreement was torn up mid-way through my first time, I wasn’t part of any tribe.”

The Guardian reports that third-party groups, who don’t necessarily field candidates but exert influence throughout campaigns, are preparing election material to say having more Greens and so-called Teals on the crossbench are a threat to Australia’s economic and social stability.

One flyer from the conservative group Better Australia boasts that it has influenced election outcomes in NSW and Queensland, and it is intent on ending Greens and Teal representation in the Federal Parliament.

“Better Australia is an independent grassroots initiative formed in response to widespread concerns from Australians of all walks of life,” a spokeswoman said.

“Better Australia is led by a broad coalition of Australians who believe that political representation should be based on integrity and action, not extremist or elite activism.”

Similar campaigns have been and are being organised by other groups, including one called Minority Impact Coalition.

There are currently a record number of crossbenchers in the House of Representatives – 19.

Independent influence has been on the rise for the past few elections, forcing the major parties to enter more deals over legislation, which the crossbench says has resulted in better outcomes for Australians.

Recent polling shows most of the current ones will be re-elected and that neither major party will secure enough votes to form majority government.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese says Labor can and will win a majority second term.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton says if the Coalition wins far more seats than Labor but is still short of the magic 76 seats, then the crossbench should seriously consider giving him support to form government.