Although there aren’t any published polls so far on the coming ACT Election (nor are there likely to be – a poll with a decent sample size costs in the ballpark of $10k to commission, which is just too expensive for our local media), there is at least one betting market open where you can lay down your hard earned on the result. There are many who believe that a betting market such as this tends to be an accurate distillation of all the knowledge that is out there concerning the state of play in the election. There may be something in this idea – after all, the mind is concentrated wonderfully by the prospect of winning or losing money.
In light of this, I’ve been collecting the current prices from the ACT Election market on Centrebet daily, and converting them to implied probabilities of an ALP or Liberal win (this market does not offer an “any others” option). Without further ado, here’s the current state of play:
As you can see, the market is currently pricing in an almost 70% chance of an ALP victory. Additionally, this has been slowly widening over the past week and a half. To me, this was a surprising result – I do think the ALP are more likely to win, but I think it’s closer than the market is indicating. You can currently triple your money with a bet on the Liberals – 3 to 1 odds aren’t bad in a two horse race.
If the indulgence of the Riot-ACT administrators is forthcoming, I intend to post an update to this chart every Friday until the election.
[ED – sounds good to us]