Election 2024: Region's political tragics have their say

With the ACT going to the polls tomorrow, what feels like the longest election campaign ever is (mercifully) almost over.

What’s going to happen? With Hare Clark, and no opinion polling, it’s a bit of a lottery.

So, with those caveats, Region‘s David Murtagh, Oliver Jacques and Ian Bushnell are throwing caution to the wind and having a punt on the outcome of Election 2024.

David Murtagh, Opinion Writer

Going out on a limb here – which means this prediction will either be very right (in which case, gold star and a lifetime supply of Freddos) or very wrong (claim the account was hacked).

Here goes … the Greens will be the biggest party come 20 October, and a coalition of very miserable new Labor Party MLAs after stalwarts decide to find new hobbies and spend time with their families (Andrew Barr and Mick Gentlemen, for starters) will sit alongside some very surprised Independents for Canberra candidates.

Hilarity will ensue.

Is this the likely outcome? Under Hare Clark, who knows?

Did anyone really think Gordon Ramsay, the MLA, not the chef, would lose at the 2020 election?

Did anyone really think the Greens would win more than two seats that year?

It doesn’t take much for a seismic shift to occur, and after 23 years in power and a long apprenticeship in a famously left-leaning electorate, enough voters might think that the Greens in the Territory are not the risk they pose federally. In other words, what have we got to lose? How much damage could they do in a few years? (Answer – a lot, see Rudd, K).

The Greens will also benefit from the Independents for Canberra who, along with every other left-leaning minor party, are unlikely to back another term of the status quo. If they did, why bother running?

As for the Liberals?

They may do better than in 2020, they may do worse – it’s hardly a reflection on the tireless and disciplined leadership of Elizabeth Lee (disciplined until Wedndesday’s flip-out, at least) if they don’t crack a win this election cycle. The odds are against them.

Could they do it in 2028? Without the hand of God? Unlikely. But you never know your luck in a medium-sized city with Hare Clark.

Oliver Jacques, Journalist

This is a poll in which our electoral system will have more influence on the outcome than voters.

I expect there to be a considerable swing against the government and towards independents and minor parties, but there will be limited change in the overall makeup of the Legislative Assembly.

We could see a slightly weakened Labor-Greens government next week – with the following results:

• ACT Labor – 10 seats
• Canberra Liberals – 9 seats
• Greens – 4 seats
• Independents for Canberra (Thomas Emerson) – 1 seat
• Independent Fiona Carrick – 1 seat.

There seems to be some disenchantment with ACT Labor. Their support could drop by four points overall. That would cause havoc for a political party at a federal election but not in five-member electorates decided by the Hare Clark system.

At the 2020 election, Labor got 38 per cent of the vote overall and had two members elected in each electorate. You generally get two members elected if your vote is above 30 per cent – so there would have to be a spectacular collapse in Labor’s vote for them to lose even one seat. I don’t think people are enamoured enough with the alternatives for that to happen.

The Canberra Liberals have had an uneven campaign. I’ve never encountered a political party so reluctant to talk to media. Generally, politicians do whatever they can to get exposure during elections, so their tactics are unusual. I doubt people know their members well or what they stand for. Their support may go up a tick, but I don’t see them making the big gains needed to pick up extra seats.

The Greens are the party under the most pressure. Not necessarily because of their performance in government but because they surged at the last election and will struggle to maintain their gains in a more competitive environment. Greens tend to go backwards when independents do well. I suspect they’ll lose one seat each to independents in Murrumbidgee and Kurrajong.

The Independents for Canberra (IFC) and other independents and minor parties should poll strongly. But reaching 17 per cent of the vote to get elected is a big hurdle. Fiona Carrick nearly got elected in 2020 in Murrumbidgee and might sneak over the line this time. The most well-known IFC candidate, Thomas Emerson, could also snatch a seat off the Greens in Kurrajong.

Ian Bushnell, Journalist

This was always going to be a hard ask for the Canberra Liberals to take government, despite 23 years of Labor and Labor/Green government.

Labor’s vote would have to collapse for it to lose any of its 10 seats and while it might take a hit, party polling suggests it will do enough to defend them.

They could also well pick up a seat in Brindabella at the expense of the Greens, and Ginninderra is a train wreck for the Liberals, so that could be in play, too.

Labor has used the power of incumbency well and has a well-established and staged infrastructure program, including light rail, something that remains popular overall.

The Liberals have tried to throw everything at the electorate, as well as capitalising on simmering discontent about cost of living and housing.

The new leadership of Elizabeth Lee has tried to dump the social policy baggage but it lingers in voters’ minds, nudged along by Labor.

But for me, the Liberals have overpromised and not fully articulated their policies, particularly on tax and spending, and have not explained how they will achieve its accelerated land sale program, which is essential to how they will run their budget.

Banking on land sales to bolster a budget that will have less revenue from rates and payroll tax seems risky. And the Kowen Forest town centre plan was out of left field.

The city stadium idea will appeal to a certain demographic but won’t be a big vote changer.

The question is, will disenchanted Labor voters turn blue? I think they are more likely to look towards the independents, particularly the well-organised and marketed Independents for Canberra, with not enough preferences flowing to the Liberals to make a difference.

I also believe the independents will not do as well as expected, mainly because voters do not know who they would support to govern and their vote will be dispersed.

But Thomas Emerson in Kurrajong and Fiona Carrick in Murrumbidgee are the most likely to get spots on the crossbench.

The independents will also eat into the Greens big vote from 2020. Over the past four years, the Greens have been ill-disciplined and played to their base with pie-in-the-sky policies that are simply unachievable. There’s brand differentiation and then there is ideological blindness.

Labor could also welcome back some voters deterred by the Greens’ outspoken position on Palestine. They could lose half their seats or more. Leader Shane Rattenbury and Ginninderra MLA Jo Clay could be the only survivors, although they could score a third.

So I expect Labor will again govern with Greens’ support.

My prediction:

• ACT Labor – 11 seats
• Canberra Liberals – 9 seats
• Greens – 3 seats
• Independents for Canberra (Thomas Emerson) – 1 seat
• Independent Fiona Carrick – 1 seat.