ACT Election decided…

pure_blonde 27 October 2008 44

[First filed: October 26, 2008 @ 11:40]

The ACT Election Count is finally over…

The Labor Party secured 7 seats, The Liberals only got 6 while the Greens managed to steal a fourth in Molonglo.

So the new look Legislative Assembly is as follows:

Brindabella:

    Brendan Smyth (LIB), Steve Doszpot (LIB), Amanda Bresnan (GREENS), John Hargreaves (LAB), and Joy Burch (LAB)

Ginninderra:

    Jon Stanhope (LAB), Merideth Hunter (GREENS), Alistair Coe (LIB), Mary Porter (LAB), and Vikki Dunn (LIB)

Molonglo:

    Zed Seselja (LIB), Katy Gallagher (LAB), Shane Rattenbury (GREENS), Andrew Barr (LAB), Jeremy Hanson (LIB), Simon Corbell (LAB), and finally Caroline Le Couteur (GREENS)

So there you have it. A formal declaration of the poll is expected on Wednesday from Commissioner Phil Green.

So does this mean the Liberals have little or no chance of minority Government now, only claiming 6 seats?

(Source: media release from electoral commision)

[ED – Gungahlin Al also sent in the following analysis]

    It’s official – the Greens have secured the final seat in Molonglo.

    The ACT Electoral Commission seems to have pulled out all stops to get to the bottom of the electoral result and come up with Caroline le Couteur as the 4th Greens MLA, by a margin of some 900 votes according to today’s Sunday Times. ALP’s Simon Corbell scraped into 6th place ahead of the Greens, and Lib’s Jeremy Hanson in 5th. Giulia with a G was the unlucky one.

    Getting partisan, it could also be argued that the people of Gungahlin are the unlucky ones too, in that there is no-one in yet another Assembly who identifies with Gungahlin. It could be argued though that Alistair Coe gives us a degree of representation, given that his family is from Nicholls (the one part of Gungahlin that is not within the Molonglo electorate).

    Back to the Greens, having four people in the Assembly clearly puts them in an even stronger position in the meetings with the ALP and Libs, and shows the good Greens strategy of not locking anything in at the meetings to date until the outcome was known.

    On the other hand, it makes it a bit harder for the Greens to take the position that seems to have been emerging as the preferable solution among the commentariat – that they remain on the cross benches rather than within the cabinet. But the alternative of demanding two ministers and being bound to cabinet solidarity conventions and all the throttling that would mean is equally problematic.

    In the City News this week though, Michael Moore has proposed a variant that would see the Greens with the ministerial roles, but without any obligation to cabinet solidarity. He points out that this is the approach taken in South Australia and it is working there. It has resulted in good and improving electoral outcomes for Karlene Mayward, the Nats Minister in the ALP government, and for the Independent Rory McEwen.

    No doubt a solution would grate in a major way for Jon Stanhope, and Katy Gallagher on 666 side by side with Shane Rattenbury this week seemed very flat and still firmly sucking on a lemon. So perhaps the solution for the Greens is to widen who they are negotiating with in the ALP. Perhaps it is time for Andrew Barr to step up to the plate and offer himself as a path forward.

    With the Greens placing Barr into the Chief Minister role, the public can have their scalp, but retain the government with the party that clearly did get a larger vote than any other (sorry Zed but the numbers are against you now). And the ALP would have the rejuvenation that they so clearly need to boot.


What's Your Opinion?


Please login to post your comments, or connect with
44 Responses to ACT Election decided…
Filter
Order
bd84 bd84 9:42 pm 27 Oct 08

I just want to see the look on stanhopeless’ face if the Greens decide to go with the Libs. That would be one classic pic!

tylersmayhem tylersmayhem 3:35 pm 27 Oct 08

Since Alistair Coe was fighting to re-open Flynn Primary – is this likely to still happen now he has been elected?

Tetranitrate Tetranitrate 2:35 pm 27 Oct 08

jakez said :

Half the jihadis in the Liberal Party ARE gay. It is truly mindblowing.

I’ll bet blowing of the mind isn’t the only blowing going on in this instance!

Nickamc Nickamc 1:41 pm 27 Oct 08

Want to say well done to Alistair Coe, a former classmate of mine at Radford. I’m not Liberal in the slightest, but its good to see a familiar name in the Assembly.

caf caf 1:11 pm 27 Oct 08

I think the Jihadis will find it hard to swallow a gay chief minister

I see what you did there.

jakez jakez 1:05 pm 27 Oct 08

jimbocool said :

I think the Jihadis will find it hard to swallow a gay chief minister, JB. As it is the Liberals would never vote for a Labor chief minister, no matter what his or her proclivities – don’t forget that Katy Gallagher is living in sin – and will nominate Seselja for the Chief Ministership even though he won’t win.

Half the jihadis in the Liberal Party ARE gay. It is truly mindblowing.

Granny Granny 1:04 pm 27 Oct 08

areaman said :

All this talk of Bar using his numbers to take the Chief Minister’s job forgets that technically the assembly chooses the CM not the party so he’d need greens support, which I doubt he’d get over Katy.

I reckon he might.

Tetranitrate Tetranitrate 12:55 pm 27 Oct 08

johnboy said :

areaman said :

All this talk of Bar using his numbers to take the Chief Minister’s job forgets that technically the assembly chooses the CM not the party so he’d need greens support, which I doubt he’d get over Katy.

He *might* get Liberal support if it means beheading Stanhope.

Depends on just how conservative the Liberl jihadists actually are on that one I guess.

Doesn’t the Labor party have fairly strong rules about things like that though?

jimbocool jimbocool 12:55 pm 27 Oct 08

I think the Jihadis will find it hard to swallow a gay chief minister, JB. As it is the Liberals would never vote for a Labor chief minister, no matter what his or her proclivities – don’t forget that Katy Gallagher is living in sin – and will nominate Seselja for the Chief Ministership even though he won’t win.

Without looking at the factional delicacies, I would’ve thought it was Hargreaves who’d be dispatched to the Speaker’s chair in order to make room in Cabinet for Hunter.

johnboy johnboy 11:59 am 27 Oct 08

areaman said :

All this talk of Bar using his numbers to take the Chief Minister’s job forgets that technically the assembly chooses the CM not the party so he’d need greens support, which I doubt he’d get over Katy.

He *might* get Liberal support if it means beheading Stanhope.

Depends on just how conservative the Liberl jihadists actually are on that one I guess.

areaman areaman 11:58 am 27 Oct 08

Barr might have the numbers, but in purely practical terms, he’s got a large chunk of voters that may not actually support him purely due to the fact he’s gay.

I doubt it, at least not so in people who might vote Labor.

areaman areaman 11:52 am 27 Oct 08

If it was a green-labor Govt with a green minister I’d say they’d bump Corbell to Speaker.

If I was the greens I wouldn’t want one minister as they’d get crunched by the right in cabinet. I’d say either go all in and get two ministries or take the speaker and the best committees, guarantee supply and snipe form the cross bench.

All this talk of Bar using his numbers to take the Chief Minister’s job forgets that technically the assembly chooses the CM not the party so he’d need greens support, which I doubt he’d get over Katy.

Skidbladnir Skidbladnir 11:42 am 27 Oct 08

Barr might have the numbers, but in purely practical terms, he’s got a large chunk of voters that may not actually support him purely due to the fact he’s gay.

Unless he can prove that there are major legitimate reasons for supporting, like if Katy Gallagher had a track record being inept as CM, it could go against him.

(Wanting the job and being the best available candidate for the job would be two seperate things)

whistle whistle 11:13 am 27 Oct 08

Barr has the numbers. Even if he doesn’t want the leadership short term, he’d be silly not to get control.

If there’s to be a Green-Labor Govt, then he has to roll Gallagher or Corbell – otherwise he would have only one place in Cabinet despite majority control of caucus. If it’s a Labor Cabinet with Green support, then he has to either dump Corbell while Stanhope is Chief Minister, or roll Shanhope as leader (replaced by Gallagher or Barr) and bring in another right Minister into Cabinet. The same scenario applies in opposition, but Barr could go all out and roll Gallagher as leader after he waits a year to let Gallagher’s laziness show and waits for any honeymoon effect to rub off a Liberal-Green arrangement.

tom-tom tom-tom 10:56 am 27 Oct 08

does anyone even know for sure if barr actually wants the job just yet?

if i were a betting man i’d be putting money on him biding his time for now.

Skidbladnir Skidbladnir 10:37 am 27 Oct 08

On Barr vs Gallagher:

Considering the privileged positions of the Greens, and now the more disadvantageous position the Libs are in, the Greens getting an optimum outcome out of the Labor bunch is going to be harder.

If it was 7-3-7, Greens could make demands of both sides, play “Why don’t you and him have a fight” and then just side with whoever made the better offer.

Now, Libs have to sweeten their proposals further, and Labor can back off some, and push Katy for CM, if Stanhope isn’t likely as part of any deals.

I’d be interested in what they had to say, but for mine re: Barr for CM, he’s still got some years ahead of him, and we’ve only seen what he’s like in boom years so far.
If there are going to be bungles in bust-years, let Barr get some experience, but have someone else’s head be the one on the chopping block (of Accountable Minority Government Chief Minister) for sacrificing.

Then, if there’s yet another Labor term, he’s primed for action, or if there’s an ousting of Labor next time, he’ll be set for playing the role of Very Critical Opposition Leader.

LG LG 10:20 am 27 Oct 08

fhakk said :

Katy Gallagher…relatively untainted…

It helped that she changed portfolios before the school closures (even though the work would have started under her stewardship). I guess you could props for that piece of forward thinking.

I’d much prefer Barr to be CM out of the current mob. Gallagher would be too busy dodgy responsibility to run the Territory properly whereas I think Barr has shown he can cop criticism but keep putting in the effort.

Bruce K Bruce K 11:54 pm 26 Oct 08

disenfranchised said :

The major parties now have time to reflect on the results. The truth is Labor was always going to come off a high point (9 seats in 2004). They knew a school closure policy would take some skin (but they felt it needed to be done). Labor should fast track the transition from Stanhope to Gallagher. Stanhope served the ALP well but has probably reached his use by date. Corbell and Barr are talented experienced Ministers. Whether people like it or not, nearly 20 years on into our political system in the ACT, Labor has become the main political party more in sync with the community than other political groups. It will be hard to wrest government from them. I doubt the Canberra Liberals will have the courage to do what is needed. If they are not careful they will remain a right wing christian pro life rump. Since the Carnell days they have conducted a purge within their own ranks against small l liberalism and paid the penalty. Don’t worry, when we in the community think we next need some rabid right wingers to save us, they are a shoe in. Without change, the Liberals risk becoming totally irrelevant. Garnering only 30% of the vote was NOT a good result. Equally getting less than the 2004 election was also NOT a good result. Isn’t there a message in a swing of just under 4% against you (from the cushy position of Opposition)?

Couldn’t agree more disenfranchised, its now time for the party to have a purge of the right. After this appalling election defeat the right of the liberal party needs to hang their heads in shame. This election should have delivered 8 seats to the libs, with Stanhope on the nose and a “fresh liberal leader”. Much sole searching needs to be done, and many questions asked. Here’s a couple to help them on their way.

1. Who allowed the ex president to run – the whole of the labor negative campaign material was about him?
2. Who didn’t fix their relationship with Jim Murphy et al? The management committee was elected last year on this particular point. (lost opportunity and money)
3. Who allowed people to run their campaign who hadn’t run a Hare Clarke campaign before. (did they ask for support from someone who had, like Humphries or Carnell, bet you they didn’t)
4. Why did they keep all the candidates away from the media. – If the electorate doesn’t know who they are they won’t vote for them.
5. Why didn’t they take notice of the CT poll which predicted 4 Greens? Stupid or just arrogant. You choose.
6. Will somebody be held responsible or will they claim some small victory and blame Richard Mulcahy or where the moon was in respect to their anuses. Or gee the electorate can be fickle can’t they. (Guess what you guys stuffed up and lost the unlosable election)

Just a begining for you, I bet you are smart enough to not answer these questions and come up with your own.

Pandy Pandy 11:33 pm 26 Oct 08

Lightrail wont happen.

Too expensive
The Feds say they produce too much greenhouse gases
Safe Labor federal seat.
will need a major upgrade of the bus system
Has “failed” in many other cities including Portland

Tetranitrate Tetranitrate 9:23 pm 26 Oct 08

Apparently Barr doesn’t want the CM job yet, or so I’ve heard.
Of course Peter Costello learned the ultimate lesson as far as not taking chances when they come up, so I guess we’ll see.

CBR Tweets

Sign up to our newsletter

 Top
Region Group Pty Ltd

Search across the site