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ACT Election decided…

By pure_blonde - 27 October 2008 44

[First filed: October 26, 2008 @ 11:40]

The ACT Election Count is finally over…

The Labor Party secured 7 seats, The Liberals only got 6 while the Greens managed to steal a fourth in Molonglo.

So the new look Legislative Assembly is as follows:

Brindabella:

    Brendan Smyth (LIB), Steve Doszpot (LIB), Amanda Bresnan (GREENS), John Hargreaves (LAB), and Joy Burch (LAB)

Ginninderra:

    Jon Stanhope (LAB), Merideth Hunter (GREENS), Alistair Coe (LIB), Mary Porter (LAB), and Vikki Dunn (LIB)

Molonglo:

    Zed Seselja (LIB), Katy Gallagher (LAB), Shane Rattenbury (GREENS), Andrew Barr (LAB), Jeremy Hanson (LIB), Simon Corbell (LAB), and finally Caroline Le Couteur (GREENS)

So there you have it. A formal declaration of the poll is expected on Wednesday from Commissioner Phil Green.

So does this mean the Liberals have little or no chance of minority Government now, only claiming 6 seats?

(Source: media release from electoral commision)

[ED – Gungahlin Al also sent in the following analysis]

    It’s official – the Greens have secured the final seat in Molonglo.

    The ACT Electoral Commission seems to have pulled out all stops to get to the bottom of the electoral result and come up with Caroline le Couteur as the 4th Greens MLA, by a margin of some 900 votes according to today’s Sunday Times. ALP’s Simon Corbell scraped into 6th place ahead of the Greens, and Lib’s Jeremy Hanson in 5th. Giulia with a G was the unlucky one.

    Getting partisan, it could also be argued that the people of Gungahlin are the unlucky ones too, in that there is no-one in yet another Assembly who identifies with Gungahlin. It could be argued though that Alistair Coe gives us a degree of representation, given that his family is from Nicholls (the one part of Gungahlin that is not within the Molonglo electorate).

    Back to the Greens, having four people in the Assembly clearly puts them in an even stronger position in the meetings with the ALP and Libs, and shows the good Greens strategy of not locking anything in at the meetings to date until the outcome was known.

    On the other hand, it makes it a bit harder for the Greens to take the position that seems to have been emerging as the preferable solution among the commentariat – that they remain on the cross benches rather than within the cabinet. But the alternative of demanding two ministers and being bound to cabinet solidarity conventions and all the throttling that would mean is equally problematic.

    In the City News this week though, Michael Moore has proposed a variant that would see the Greens with the ministerial roles, but without any obligation to cabinet solidarity. He points out that this is the approach taken in South Australia and it is working there. It has resulted in good and improving electoral outcomes for Karlene Mayward, the Nats Minister in the ALP government, and for the Independent Rory McEwen.

    No doubt a solution would grate in a major way for Jon Stanhope, and Katy Gallagher on 666 side by side with Shane Rattenbury this week seemed very flat and still firmly sucking on a lemon. So perhaps the solution for the Greens is to widen who they are negotiating with in the ALP. Perhaps it is time for Andrew Barr to step up to the plate and offer himself as a path forward.

    With the Greens placing Barr into the Chief Minister role, the public can have their scalp, but retain the government with the party that clearly did get a larger vote than any other (sorry Zed but the numbers are against you now). And the ALP would have the rejuvenation that they so clearly need to boot.

What’s Your opinion?


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44 Responses to
ACT Election decided…
areaman 4:16 pm 26 Oct 08

Areaman – I though Stanhope was unaligned, which is different to ‘centre’ is it not?

He pretends to not be in a faction but there is a whole “center” faction backing him up. Hettinger was an actual unaligned candidate and look at how well he did.

Soolin 3:51 pm 26 Oct 08

PS: I can’t see the Greens ever joining the Libs to form government, and with the last seat going to the Greens and the Libs with only six seats, I think we all know there’s zero chance of a Liberal Green alliance.

But it would be good to see the arrogant Stanhope brought down a notch!

Soolin 3:47 pm 26 Oct 08

paperboy said :

Here’s a tip.

If the Greens do decide to join the Libs to form an alliance Government (and with Jon Stanhope’s belligerent attitude to both the Greens and the electorate, who’d blame them) Stanhope will quit before the first sitting of the Asembly.

I’d like to see that! I don’t mind the rest of the Labor team, but I can’t stand Stanhope.

paperboy 3:43 pm 26 Oct 08

Here’s a tip.

If the Greens do decide to join the Libs to form an alliance Government (and with Jon Stanhope’s belligerent attitude to both the Greens and the electorate, who’d blame them) Stanhope will quit before the first sitting of the Asembly.

Kitchen Man 3:26 pm 26 Oct 08

I wonder how differently, it at all, things would have played out, had the Motorists not run the full ticket. If they’d only run 2 in the north and the south and 3 in the centre, I just wonder what role the rev head preferences would have played

jimbocool 3:07 pm 26 Oct 08

Areaman – I though Stanhope was unaligned, which is different to ‘centre’ is it not?

With all the attention on Molonglo and the Black Swan I forgot to mention the irony of Val Jeffery’s preferences helping get Amanda Bresnan elected in Brindabella! About 34% of his preferences went Amanda’s way.

One of the things that helped the Greens in Molonglo was Shane Rattenbury getting his quota on other preferences rather thna green ones. This maximised the efficiency of the in-group preferences. Now of all the people in all the electorate, who do you think it was that provided Shane’s final push over the line? Who selflessly sacrificed themselves before Elena so that her votes would maximise Caroline’s chances? Gary Kent, come on down! Let this be your legacy after your sterling efforts in the lead up to this election. Not forgetting Mr Mulcahy who earlier in the count also contributed hansomely to the Greens cause with 577 odd preferences.

Primal 2:31 pm 26 Oct 08

Would it be a bad thing if, hypothetically speaking, four of the five ministers came from the same electorate?

areaman 2:07 pm 26 Oct 08

4 right, 2 left, 1 center

imagicnation 1:37 pm 26 Oct 08

Does anyone know how the factional ALP numbers stack up?

Aeek 1:31 pm 26 Oct 08

Why would the Greens want to be in government? Chairing their committees of interest.
Making sure that business goes to those committees. Being a major influence.
What’s slightly bizarre is that their power comes from Labor/Liberal being committed to opposing each other at every turn.

disenfranchised 1:25 pm 26 Oct 08

I am not a Labor supporter but I have to say I admire Barr. He handled a tough policy decision in his portfolio (school closures) well. He weathered a real storm in 2006. He met with angry Canberrans and tackled the issue head on. It was not, as some said, political suicide for him. Barr has also been up front about being gay from Day 1. Given that there have been debates about recognition of same sex relationships in the Assembly, I respect his openness. Good on him. He is talented and will be a major political player over the next decade.

areaman 12:45 pm 26 Oct 08

With the Greens placing Barr into the Chief Minister role, the public can have their scalp, but retain the government with the party that clearly did get a larger vote than any other (sorry Zed but the numbers are against you now). And the ALP would have the rejuvenation that they so clearly need to boot.

You’ve raised this stupid idea before Al. Like I said then Barr is both from the right of the ALP and not very popular, so it would be against the green’s interest to try and use up their political capital getting him the CM’s job.

disenfranchised 12:40 pm 26 Oct 08

The major parties now have time to reflect on the results. The truth is Labor was always going to come off a high point (9 seats in 2004). They knew a school closure policy would take some skin (but they felt it needed to be done). Labor should fast track the transition from Stanhope to Gallagher. Stanhope served the ALP well but has probably reached his use by date. Corbell and Barr are talented experienced Ministers. Whether people like it or not, nearly 20 years on into our political system in the ACT, Labor has become the main political party more in sync with the community than other political groups. It will be hard to wrest government from them. I doubt the Canberra Liberals will have the courage to do what is needed. If they are not careful they will remain a right wing christian pro life rump. Since the Carnell days they have conducted a purge within their own ranks against small l liberalism and paid the penalty. Don’t worry, when we in the community think we next need some rabid right wingers to save us, they are a shoe in. Without change, the Liberals risk becoming totally irrelevant. Garnering only 30% of the vote was NOT a good result. Equally getting less than the 2004 election was also NOT a good result. Isn’t there a message in a swing of just under 4% against you (from the cushy position of Opposition)?

Gungahlin Al 12:16 pm 26 Oct 08

Interestingly, people seem to have pretty much got their first preferences up.

In Brindabella, the full preference and first preference results matched.

In Ginninderra, Mark Parton’s 1st preferences of 3797 just pipped Mary Porter’s 3765, otherwise the front runners on 1st prefs all got in.

In Molonglo, the candidates elected followed the first preference votes for all except Frank Pangallo, who at 3538 first votes, bettered Caroline on 3337 and Jeremy on 3264.

So anyone who’s been expressing concerns about the Hare-Clark system would have to be pretty happen with that. And for any candidates likely to be further down the line (let’s face it – anyone other than incumbents) it also underlines the importance of chasing more than just a “vote 1 me” line.

And I repeat what I’ve said elsewhere – the number of people elected without a full quota speaks volumes for the number of people out there who tossed away their chance to affect the final outcomes. It may be that many didn’t feel they could send their vote the way of any of the remaining boxes.

But I’d reckon that a major proportion of the exhausted votes were merely people following the HTV recommendations that most candidates sent out in the mailouts, which almost all seemed to indicate to vote for their mob only (or in Katy’s case her only – unless you found the fine print) then nobody else.

I think this is where the electoral commission will need to focus their educational campaigning next time around.

Woden Martin 12:13 pm 26 Oct 08

We know how fond of Andrew you are in Gungalin ,since he has promised you everything and his mother in law. Those of us in the south know his limitations and would consider your proposal for Andrew as ludicrous. This man is well out out his depth in Planning not to mention Education and to even consider him for leadership is ridiculous.
As Woden spans two electorates we struggle to get any representation in the assembly. Even the Chief Minister doesn’t know where Woden is, thinking that Weston is a part of Woden in a recent talkback session on the Radio.
You have nothing to fear from four Greens in the assembly, maybe you’ll get that beloved light rail you have been dreaming of and a Government department so that people in Tuggeranong can spent more time travelling to and from work.

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