21 October 2024

Independent kingmakers considering options after breaking 20-year drought

| Oliver Jacques
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Thomas Emerson voting

Independents for Canberra Kurrajong MLA elect Thomas Emerson has ruled out a coalition with Labor. Photo: Supplied.

The first independents to be elected in the ACT since 2004 are today considering their options as they prepare to play a pivotal role in a new-look Legislative Assembly.

Independents for Canberra (IFC) candidate Thomas Emerson was successfully elected to the seat of Kurrajong, while independent Fiona Carrick won in Murrumbidgee, after narrowly missing out on gaining a place at the 2020 election.

Labor is certain to win 10 seats, the Liberals eight, the Greens two and independents two. There are three seats in doubt in the 25-member assembly, with the Liberals, Labor, Greens and independents all in the hunt for at least one of them.

The Canberra Liberals have conceded they are not in a position to form a coalition government, while Labor chief minister Andrew Barr says he is looking forward to working with the “five progressive” members of the crossbench as he looks to extent his party’s stay in government to a record 27 years.

READ ALSO ACT Election 2024: The state of play at close of counting

Mr Emerson has ruled out forming a coalition government with Labor but says he will negotiate with them on confidence and supply – supporting Labor on key bills that authorise the spending of money to ensure stable government.

Ms Carrick says she won’t rule anything out at this stage.

“We’ll have to wait and see how final vote is … but I’m open and enthusiastic to talk to anyone,” she says.

Fiona Carrick has been elected after an eight-year fight. Photo: Supplied.

Mr Emerson says there’s still a chance he won’t be the only IFC representative in the LA.

“We think there is a possibility for David Pollard [in Yerrabi] and Vanessa Picker [in Brindabella] is more of an outside chance,” he says.

If Mr Pollard is successful in Yerrabi, he will edge out the Greens’ Andrew Braddock for the final seat. That could leave the Greens with just two seats overall, meaning Labor and Greens combined would have 12 seats – one short of a majority and leaving Labor needing to negotiate with at least one independent.

On the other hand, the Greens are still a chance of holding their seat in Brindabella, which could give them as many as four seats – a safe majority with Labor that reduces the need for independents to be part of government.

Both Mr Emerson and Ms Carrick say wherever the final count lies, it’s been an historic achievement for independents.

“It’s been a remarkable campaign. It’s incredible, people have put their hands up as candidates, none of us knew each other nine months ago, people have put their faith in us and said we want to have a full say in our democracy,” Mr Emerson says.

Ms Carrick says her election was the culmination of eight years of work from a host of volunteers.

“Thanks to all my supporters for all their efforts and we will continue to grow our people-powered community movements. I look forward to continuing to catch up with them for Friday night Flash Mob dinners. I couldn’t have done it without them,” she says.

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Heywood Smith10:11 am 21 Oct 24

WTF is it with Canberrans and their obsession with the Labour Party. My god we are a stupid bunch!

Well over half the electorate voted for not the Liberal Party…calling them stupid is not the genius tactic Liberal Party boosters seem to think it is.

No, Heywood, not stupid – the political talent pool in the ACT just isn’t that deep. I’d propose that those worthy of receiving votes within their respective electorates where indeed those who did – regardless of party – and then it becomes a numbers game. Remember that the Libs still got 8 seats vs Labour’s 10 seats (at this point), with a swing against Labour and the Greens.

@Heywood Smith
Democracy spoke in Canberra – you didn’t get the speech you wanted, therefore Canberrans are “a stupid bunch”. It’s going to be a long 4 years for you *face palm*

Heywood Smith reveals the contempt Liberals hold for those who do not share their out-of-date conservative opinions! The born to rule mentality and sense of entitlement we see from the Canberra Liberals and those of Mr Smith’s ilk being played out in social media at this moment!

That snarling hostility and negativity after losing yet another election, directing their animosity at those who vote for progressive governments, blaming public servants and everyday Canberrans for their misfortunes and voters who have seen through their deceptions!

I hope the Independents are able to keep Labour restrained and on the path. May they question existing initiatives with a view to revalidating the benefit and viability to continue or deviate.

Case in point is Light Rail. I fully support Light Rail, but not to Woden – I can’t see a decent ROI for that route. Thomas should perhaps now ask why not connect LR 2a to Barton-Kingston and subsequently the Heavy Rail station (ala the Fyshwick Business Association proposal). This is a shorter route which would support tourists, office workers and medium density residents. It only needs one strong voice inside the Assembly to ask “What about…?”

@Stuart M
Given that the current prediction is that the Labor/Green coalition will hold 13 seats, there is nothing the Liberals or independents will be able to do “to keep Labour (plus the Greens) restrained and on the path”.

The opportunity for a true minority government, to be held accountable, appears to have passed – finalisation of the count notwithstanding.

I hear what you’re saying, but at least there’ll be two new voices not bound to the Big Three. It’s a start…

@StuartM
Amen to that … and hopefully they can prove worthy of the trust they have been given – and if so, then perhaps it will actually be the start of a change for the better.

GrumpyGrandpa8:13 pm 20 Oct 24

In Mr Barr’s speech last night, he spoke of inviting the Greens to form an alliance government, which he’s done in the past.

The ABC are predicting 10 ALP, 3 Greens & 2 Independents and if those predictions turn out to be correct, the government’s legislation won e able to be blocked, overturned or amended.

Independents only makes a difference, if they take sufficient seats off the government of the day, or in our case, their alliance partners.

We’ll have to wait until the final numbers are in, but at this stage, the Independent King makers look like they’ll have as much influence as the Canberra Liberals; none!

@GrumpyGrandpa
Yes – you are correct, at this stage it seems unlikely the independents will hold the ‘balance of power’ … the article actually isn’t anywhere near as dramatic and misleading as its ‘clickbait’ title.

How is it the green have a chance to get a seat in Brindabella but liberals couldn’t get the seats they need.

No preferences have been counted since election day!

ABC while they called it for Labor on the night they were also calling it the week prior as well. Suspiciously they seemed to already have the poll numbers from prepolls on their diagrams

Give it a rest with the conspiracy nonsense. There’s typically no counting on a Sunday. Only Labor have the numbers to form a governing coalition. It’s just a matter of working out who that will be with and how it will work.

The Liberals didn’t get enough for another quota…they weren’t robbed they did a terrible job of convincing the electorate that they are a viable alternative…they did not allay concerns on social policy or offer a positive vision for the future, instead, they campaigned on the claim that they would provide more for less which the electorate saw for what it was, nonsense.

@gooterz
Let me assist you to deal with your conspiracy theory.

1. No preferences were counted on election day at the polling booths.
2. Elections ACT were able to provide prepoll figures not long after polling station closed at 6:00pm on election day – not at all suprising given the majority of prepoll votes were cast electronically.
3. The results of the counting were provided to the media, via regular updates from polling station, by Elections ACT to allow the talking heads to ‘do their thing’.

You shouldn’t forget, the media and experts are allowed to pontificate and speculate, on the outcome, to their heart’s content – the only “opinion” that counts, is Elections ACT, when they officially declare the result.

You can actually inform yourself of the process here (https://www.elections.act.gov.au/for-voters/vote-counting-schedule)

The Independents are certainly not kingmakers with counting still continuing! I suspect final counting will put the Labor and Greens into another alliance government.

My guess is that the independents will be out in the cold, doing what the Liberals have been doing with their time for the last 23 years in opposition, making a lot of noise but doing nothing!

That is what oppositions do!

GrumpyGrandpa10:51 pm 20 Oct 24

Jack D.
As someone versed in the political process, you know that Oppositions are meant to support, amend or block legislation, as submitted by the government of the day.

If the ALP chooses to govern based on the numbers of its members elected, (as a minority government), then “Oppositions” do what Oppositions are meant to do.

If the ALP chooses to form an alliance with the Greens, it blocks the Opposition and becomes accountable only to itself.

Regardless of who is in power, democracy is better served when there is input from all of it’s elected representatives.

During the election campaign I seem to recall your abject criticism of the Greens (and their ideology). But now the ALP is looking to align themselves with the Greens, you are talking of how Oppositions do nothing, but make noise!

Jack D, encourage Mr Barr to rid himself of those Greens you so dislike so much and allow the Oppositions do what Oppositions are meant to do.

I’m guessing he got the work email to change his tune on alliance with the greens again.

Counting is not over Grumpy and preference flows will determine the final outcome. While not ideal, it looks like the Greens have the upper hand at this stage and Labor will need to negotiate in good faith with them and other crossbenchers to form stable government, as you should no doubt be aware!

Capital Retro3:27 pm 20 Oct 24

Wikipedia have already anointed him (before he has served, mind you):
“Thomas Emerson is an Australian politician who has served as a member of the Australian Capital Territory Legislative Assembly for the electorate of Kurrajong since 2024. He is the leader and co-founder of Independents for Canberra.[2]”

Isn’t that “nice Mr Emerson” lucky to have his name? Not to mention his short stint working for David Pocock!

He has certainly been making the most of it!

Gee thanks Dad!

@Capital Retro
… and there in lies the reason you struggle to produce comments supported by facts, CR – Wikipedia is your source.

Capital Retro7:33 am 21 Oct 24

My comment was simply that Wikipedia had accepted that he was already elected. That is a fact.
I thought this could be “misinformation” but I suppose that’s a bit deep for you and Jack D. to comprehend.

@Capital Retro
Yeah right, CR, really deep.

Misinformation? No. As with all Wikipedia articles, it is the author’s “opinion piece” and obvioulsy doesn’t cite any verifiable sources, because until Elections ACT declares the official results, there are none.

Seems like you are just trying to disseminate your own version of fake news.

Well CR if it makes you feel a bit happier, I do agree with you that the Wikipedia site was “misinformation” and my comment was not disagreeing with you!

King makers? Not unless the Greens lose in Yerrabi. If there are 10 Labor and 3 Greens as seems the most likely outcome, then nothing changes. The Labor-Greens coalition can pass whatever legislation it wants and the other 12 MLAs can achieve precisely zip.

@Garfield
Spot on 👍

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