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23% counted, 49 votes in the final Molonglo seat

By johnboy - 22 October 2008 154

The Canberra Times reports that it’s razor thin in the race for the final Molonglo seat.

    The Liberals and Greens are fighting for the seat and ACT Electoral Commission figures issued last night show the Liberal lead has shrunk by 139 votes…

    The preference count includes the distribution of about 23 per cent of votes cast in Molonglo. They include the electronic pre-poll and election-day votes, as well as those cast in Amaroo, Aranda and Ainslie North.

The pre-poll votes were already known, so it’s bad news for the Liberals that the regular poll vote (where the rest of the count is coming from) has whittled their lead.

Having said that it’s dangerous to read too much into such small numbers. One can also speculate that Aranda and Ainslie are fertile Green territory.

Meanwhile Mr Stanhope is trying to play it cool saying he wants costings of Green demands before he decides if being in Government with them is worth the effort.

The CT also reports that the Greens are holding out to know if they’ve got the fourth seat before they decide on their own leadership.

UPDATED: Hobbyhorse1 has noted that Aranda is not in Molonglo. Something a look at the map confirms. Not sure what the CT’s playing at with that one and apologies for not picking it up.

What’s Your opinion?


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154 Responses to
23% counted, 49 votes in the final Molonglo seat
ns 11:06 am 22 Oct 08

Hmmmm, just went and had a squiz at Le Couteur’s bio on the Greens website and she sounds ok. Maybe she’ll be a great MLA if she gets up and I’ll be proved wrong.

Then again, Foskey’s bio probably sounds ok too. I think I’ll stick to my personal impressions.

whistle 11:06 am 22 Oct 08

Ainslie would have to be extremely green and skew the result. Amaroo would be a little Liberal.

Aranda aint in Molonglo, but they would include Molonglo residents who voted in Aranda (and there would be a few given they are so close). Aranda is also good territory for the Greens, so exaggerates the strength of their position.

caf 11:02 am 22 Oct 08

ns: Malcolm Mackerras had this to say before the election:

On the record for the ACT I say seven Labor, six Liberals and four for the Greens.

Pretty sure the Crimes predicted 4 greens as well.

ns 10:59 am 22 Oct 08

If the Greens get more than 3 seats I think you can definitely call this a Black Swan.

I’m in two minds whether this is good or bad. I like the Greens and Rattenbury and Hunter are good candidates (unlike Foskey). Bresnan seems okay – I just don’t know much about her. Le Couteur however seems another loopy fruitcake. I spent a bit of time campaigning next to her and while she was very nice, she’s completely not good MLA material IMO.

I miss Kerry Tucker. I really have to wonder if the Greens would have done half as well if Foskey was on the ticket.

caf 10:57 am 22 Oct 08

Caf, that means there’s a huge swag of green preferences still to be unleashed if/when the second green in the count is eliminated?

Already accounted for – Kirschbaum is 49 votes behind Le Couteur when the former is eliminated from the count.

johnboy 10:32 am 22 Oct 08

slaxwarez said :

I believe that Mark Patron almost ran with the CAP in Ginnenderra. I wonder if he realizes that if he had of run with the CAP that he would have to won the fifth Seat on count back. I think his 6.3% would have been added to by the CAP 3.2% and he would be across the line ahead of the greens?

Doesn’t work that way, especially with smaller parties.

Preferences are only allocated based on how each voter numbered their ballot.

And you can’t say for sure that CAP alignment wouldn’t have dragged his vote down.

hobbyhorse1 10:31 am 22 Oct 08

Aranda is not in Molonglo so it’s a mute point.

Woody Mann-Caruso 10:30 am 22 Oct 08

Ainslie sure, but Aranda is a reasonably ritzy suburb.

Is there a correlation between wealth and political affiliation in the ACT? Be interesting (but probably difficult) to run the numbers.

slaxwarez 10:29 am 22 Oct 08

I believe that Mark Patron almost ran with the CAP in Ginnenderra. I wonder if he realizes that if he had of run with the CAP that he would have to won the fifth Seat on count back. I think his 6.3% would have been added to by the CAP 3.2% and he would be across the line ahead of the greens?

johnboy 10:26 am 22 Oct 08

Caf, that means there’s a huge swag of green preferences still to be unleashed if/when the second green in the count is eliminated?

Or is that already accounted for in the way they’re counting?

caf 10:23 am 22 Oct 08

Poll Bludger adds the information that Elena Kirschbaum (the other Green) is herself only 49 votes behind Le Couteur – so she’s certainly still in the running too.

jimbocool 10:15 am 22 Oct 08

Oh yeah – and the booth count will be very exciting as the Greens 2nd and 3rd best booths are Turner and Watson, while the Libs have two good booths in Weston and Yarralumla. However these last two aren’t so good for Jones…

jimbocool 10:08 am 22 Oct 08

I’m not sure that the CT has it right (surprise, surprise) – the count released last night is a bit deceptive because it is only the electronic votes and those votes counted and fully inputted into the computer. Jeremy Hanson is in no danger and will be elected ahead of Giulia Jones because of his significantly higher first preference vote – however the released count suggest that Jones will be elected ahead of him.

Too early to call, but it is definitely Jones vs Le Couteur for the seventh seat with nothing in it…

Granny 9:55 am 22 Oct 08

I still think he looks like Bobby Kennedy.

caf 9:45 am 22 Oct 08

Ainslie sure, but Aranda is a reasonably ritzy suburb.

Stanhope seems to be taking a more conciliatory approach to the Greens now. And could the CT have found a less flattery image of Rattenbury?

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