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APS job cuts, what’s really going to happen

By pepmeup 8 May 2013 92

Over the past election cycle I have heard just about everything about what is going to happen to the APS, after the inevitable election of an Abbott Federal Government. In recent days Tony has said he will move APS jobs to regional areas, Big Joe has been saying for months that the coalition will cut the APS. You here numbers like 20,000 jobs from Canberra, then 12,000 jobs nationally. You here that the ALP have already cut 5,000 jobs.

I don’t work in the APS but like most others in Canberra the business I work in does rely on a strong APS to survive. I know that retail is doing it really hard in Canberra, so I guess I want to know, what is confidence like in the APS at the moment? Are people worried about job loses? Why aren’t people spending?

In closing does anyone trust that Zed will look after us after September?


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APS job cuts, what’s really going to happen
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dungfungus 12:07 pm 17 May 13

Jim Jones said :

dungfungus said :

Labor bad, Liberal good.

I am glad you are starting to see the light, and I don’t mean the light on the hill.

Jim Jones 11:08 am 17 May 13

dungfungus said :

Labor bad, Liberal good.

dungfungus 10:34 am 17 May 13

pepmeup said :

It amazing just how much the federal lib and lab parties take Canberra for granted. Labor know they will win both lower house seats and one senate seat. The libs know they can only win one senate seat, so they all brag about how tough they are being on Canberra. Joe seems to have dropped the natural attrition line and now 12k is just for starters and to all happen in two years.

http://Www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/-2jpod.html

A couple of points to be made here. Labor is the governmnet in power and has been from 2007. They are the ones currently sacking thousands. In an article by the same Noel Towell in the Canberra Times to day he says The Department of Human Services is shedding 2400 of its permanent staff. This information is contained in LABOR’S budget papers.
And what are Andrew Leigh and Gai Brodtmann doing to prevent it? Hello, I didn’t hear you?
The second point is that Hockey is not bragging about sacking 12,000 public servants and they will not go “overnight” but over 2 years.

pepmeup 9:35 am 17 May 13

It amazing just how much the federal lib and lab parties take Canberra for granted. Labor know they will win both lower house seats and one senate seat. The libs know they can only win one senate seat, so they all brag about how tough they are being on Canberra. Joe seems to have dropped the natural attrition line and now 12k is just for starters and to all happen in two years.

http://Www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/-2jpod.html

dpm 2:28 pm 16 May 13

JessP said :

Dungfungus said:

The rest of Australia accepts it so toughen up.

This is a valid point for Canberrans to remember: the rest of Australia thinks getting rid of 12,000 is a great idea. The outrage extends as far as the border only.

Yep. It’s interesting that if a business is looking to lay off a couple of hundred staff (such as Holden or Mitsubishi, or their suppliers), there is a call for the Govt to subsidise them ASAP, whcih isn’t a bad thing:
http://www.monash.edu.au/news/show/is-supporting-the-car-industry-so-expensive-compared-to-our-heavily-subsidised-lives
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-04-22/janda-auto-subsidies-should-stay-for-now/4640226

And while it’s not exactly the same thing, it’s funny that most Australians rub their hands with glee when 12 – 20k of the pubes in Canberra are to lose their jobs. Canberra has few friends in Aus. C’est la vie!

HiddenDragon 2:01 pm 16 May 13

dungfungus said :

EvanJames said :

HiddenDragon said :

Whatever the precise details, my feeling is it will end up being at least as bad as 1996, and it worries me that there are many people in this town (including those who run the local government) who seem to be in a state of denial about what we face.

Agree, and with the end of the mining/China boom too. It’s a confluence of circumstances that will be unpleasant for Canberra, and the nation. Abbott and Hockey learned their trade from The Master, Howard, and you can see them working from his playbook. They’re not going to scare the horses, in the lead-up to the election it’ll be a paucity of policy details and let’s all be Relaxed and Comfortable.

I remember 1996 and the years following, and am watching it all unfold with great interest.

Remind us exactly what happened in 1996 because there are some commenters on this blog that were not even born then.

That is a sadly relevant point, because I fear that the harshest impact may be on younger people who, in financial terms at least, have never known truly tough, or even mildly difficult times. Aside from the likely drying up of opportunities for public sector employment, if we have a repeat of 1996, there will also be far fewer jobs in the private sector – particularly the casual/part-time jobs which tend to rely on fairly healthy levels of discretionary spending in the local economy. This may not be an “end of life as we know it” problem for families who fare OK under a new government, but for those where one or both of the parental breadwinners lose out, there will be some very rude shocks in store.

JessP 1:37 pm 16 May 13

Dungfungus said:

The rest of Australia accepts it so toughen up.

This is a valid point for Canberrans to remember: the rest of Australia thinks getting rid of 12,000 is a great idea. The outrage extends as far as the border only.

dungfungus 1:27 pm 16 May 13

EvanJames said :

HiddenDragon said :

Whatever the precise details, my feeling is it will end up being at least as bad as 1996, and it worries me that there are many people in this town (including those who run the local government) who seem to be in a state of denial about what we face.

Agree, and with the end of the mining/China boom too. It’s a confluence of circumstances that will be unpleasant for Canberra, and the nation. Abbott and Hockey learned their trade from The Master, Howard, and you can see them working from his playbook. They’re not going to scare the horses, in the lead-up to the election it’ll be a paucity of policy details and let’s all be Relaxed and Comfortable.

I remember 1996 and the years following, and am watching it all unfold with great interest.

Remind us exactly what happened in 1996 because there are some commenters on this blog that were not even born then.

EvanJames 12:43 pm 16 May 13

HiddenDragon said :

Whatever the precise details, my feeling is it will end up being at least as bad as 1996, and it worries me that there are many people in this town (including those who run the local government) who seem to be in a state of denial about what we face.

Agree, and with the end of the mining/China boom too. It’s a confluence of circumstances that will be unpleasant for Canberra, and the nation. Abbott and Hockey learned their trade from The Master, Howard, and you can see them working from his playbook. They’re not going to scare the horses, in the lead-up to the election it’ll be a paucity of policy details and let’s all be Relaxed and Comfortable.

I remember 1996 and the years following, and am watching it all unfold with great interest.

Jim Jones 12:37 pm 16 May 13

dungfungus said :

Jim Jones said :

JessP said :

So your comment is bought to us by the Australian Labour Party?

What is the point of this argument? Under either option their will be pain.

I don’t vote Labour and don’t support them.

Yes, there will be pain either way. This is a markedly different from the position argued by the Liberal stooges: trying to tell everyone it will happen ‘via natural attrition’ and that no-one has anything to worry about. How they can pull this crap with a straight faces amazes me.

The rest of Australia accepts it so toughen up.

You’re not one of nature’s thinkers, are you?

EvanJames 12:34 pm 16 May 13

Jim Jones said :

Yeah, the libs are gonna get rid of 12,000 jobs totally *cough* “naturally”. Nothing to see here, move along.

Heh. Yeah, 12,000 voluntary separations in a year? Crap! And I read elsewhere (Fin?) that they are eyeing the bulging SES ranks with intent. Crafty if they can pull it off, because every SES gone = an excess EA/PA too, possibly even an Executive Officer if the SES person had delusions of grandeur (or a crappy PA).

When they chop the APS, rather than being forensic it’s generally just a massive shortening of the staffing budget, rather than targetting specific areas or levels. I think a lot of people would agree that reducing SES and possibly the ELs too would do a lot of good.

Jim Jones 12:28 pm 16 May 13

dungfungus said :

Jim Jones said :

JessP said :

So your comment is bought to us by the Australian Labour Party?

What is the point of this argument? Under either option their will be pain.

I don’t vote Labour and don’t support them.

Yes, there will be pain either way. This is a markedly different from the position argued by the Liberal stooges: trying to tell everyone it will happen ‘via natural attrition’ and that no-one has anything to worry about. How they can pull this crap with a straight faces amazes me.

The rest of Australia accepts it so toughen up.

Great argument – ‘toughen up’.

: golfclap :

HiddenDragon 11:49 am 16 May 13

The commentary I have seen on the Budget, including from reporters who are not usually unsympathetic to Labor, suggests that it repeats the pattern of recent years by including notably optimistic forecasts of revenue. Taking this, together with repeated dire warnings from Ross Garnaut (again, not noted as a harsh public critic of Labor) about the need for falls in Australian living standards, due to the imminent end of the “China boom”, suggests to me that there will be seriously bad news for Canberra regardless of which party/parties win the 2013 and subsequent elections.

Until we hear a lot more detail about the Liberals’ plans for public administration, speculation about the numbers of job losses and when and how they will be achieved will be just that – speculation, and relatively meaningless at that. Whatever the precise details, my feeling is it will end up being at least as bad as 1996, and it worries me that there are many people in this town (including those who run the local government) who seem to be in a state of denial about what we face.

dungfungus 10:54 am 16 May 13

Jim Jones said :

JessP said :

So your comment is bought to us by the Australian Labour Party?

What is the point of this argument? Under either option their will be pain.

I don’t vote Labour and don’t support them.

Yes, there will be pain either way. This is a markedly different from the position argued by the Liberal stooges: trying to tell everyone it will happen ‘via natural attrition’ and that no-one has anything to worry about. How they can pull this crap with a straight faces amazes me.

The rest of Australia accepts it so toughen up.

rosscoact 10:47 am 16 May 13

Jim Jones said :

JessP said :

So your comment is bought to us by the Australian Labour Party?

What is the point of this argument? Under either option their will be pain.

I don’t vote Labour and don’t support them.

Yes, there will be pain either way. This is a markedly different from the position argued by the Liberal stooges: trying to tell everyone it will happen ‘via natural attrition’ and that no-one has anything to worry about. How they can pull this crap with a straight faces amazes me.

Depends on how they can twist the term ‘natural attrition’. If they abolish whole departments as they have promised to do, presumably the people are redundant (otherwise where is the saving)? I guess there’s a twisted logic that suggests that this constitutes ‘natural attrition’.

Yogie 10:35 am 16 May 13

c_c™ said :

zorro29 said :

retail rely on the APS? more like “have a captive audience so gouge away for poor quality”….

i would like to see a huge purge in the APS cos a large portion of people are useless and many jobs have no impact on anyone (or could be performed by fewer people)…and impacting the retail sector would be an added bonus cos you’ve had it way too good for way too long – the pricing for quality/service/range is outrageous (for everything). if you provided honest and good value output, i might feel bad for you…but, alas, you don’t.

i work in the APS and no one is particularly nervous about cuts…cos they know either way they get a massive payout…they’re more nervous about shifting portfolio responsibilities and the resulting machinery of government changes.

Yeah, like anyone is going to take someone who can’t capitalise ‘I’ and uses the phrase ‘cos’ seriously. At least you prove there is some fat to be trimmed from the public service.

+1

And the payouts only start looking good if you have been a public servant for a considerable time.

dungfungus 10:33 am 16 May 13

pepmeup said :

Mysteryman said :

pepmeup said :

When labor cut jobs from APS it’s bad for Canberra when libs cut jobs it’s bad for Canberra, I dont really care who does it. Article in today’s CT about how buisiness is doing it tough already http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/no-remedy-in-sight-for-business-gloom-20130515-2jn3r.html labor have already hurt Canberra, and the real estate market and retail sector are really feeling it. Labor have said they will cut further, libs have said they will be better at cutting further. Joe hockey wants the $3.1billion he will save from the 12,000 jobs so it won’t take too long. I think we are in for a tough time for the next year or so.

But I agree come the 15th sept it’s unlikely 12k jobs will go day one but they will go and $3.1 bill will go from local economy.

I find it very hard to believe anyone who says the Canberra real estate market is really feeling it.

check vacancy rates on rental properties, check days on market for properties, check auction Clearence rates. Mate if you bought a house in the last few years it’s worth less now than when you bought it.

Check out a suburban/town centre shopping centre and note the vacancies. Same with warehouses in industrial suburbs. This is happened over the past 5 years. I hope well paid public servants who shop offshore online are comfortable about this.

Jim Jones 10:19 am 16 May 13

JessP said :

So your comment is bought to us by the Australian Labour Party?

What is the point of this argument? Under either option their will be pain.

I don’t vote Labour and don’t support them.

Yes, there will be pain either way. This is a markedly different from the position argued by the Liberal stooges: trying to tell everyone it will happen ‘via natural attrition’ and that no-one has anything to worry about. How they can pull this crap with a straight faces amazes me.

Mysteryman 10:18 am 16 May 13

pepmeup said :

Mysteryman said :

pepmeup said :

When labor cut jobs from APS it’s bad for Canberra when libs cut jobs it’s bad for Canberra, I dont really care who does it. Article in today’s CT about how buisiness is doing it tough already http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/no-remedy-in-sight-for-business-gloom-20130515-2jn3r.html labor have already hurt Canberra, and the real estate market and retail sector are really feeling it. Labor have said they will cut further, libs have said they will be better at cutting further. Joe hockey wants the $3.1billion he will save from the 12,000 jobs so it won’t take too long. I think we are in for a tough time for the next year or so.

But I agree come the 15th sept it’s unlikely 12k jobs will go day one but they will go and $3.1 bill will go from local economy.

I find it very hard to believe anyone who says the Canberra real estate market is really feeling it.

check vacancy rates on rental properties, check days on market for properties, check auction Clearence rates. Mate if you bought a house in the last few years it’s worth less now than when you bought it.

Did you actually look at those figures at all? House prices over the last quarter are up 2.3 percent. Both the total volume and value of sales over the first part of this year are up over the last two years, and expected to continue to rise this year. The median house price is the third highest in the country, and nearly $500,000, which is roughly where it’s been for the past 3 years.

Real estate is an investment. It fluctuates in value. The fluctuations over the last 3 or 4 years don’t suggest that the Canberra real estate market is “feeling it”. In fact the data suggests nothing of the sort.

pepmeup 10:12 am 16 May 13

JessP said :

Jim Jones said :

Mysteryman said :

dungfungus said :

pepmeup said :

Big Joe Hockey was on Allan Jones yesterday, I don’t listen to him but Latika Bourke tweeted a link to the interview http://www.2gb.com/audioplayer/9080 you only need to listen to the first minute or so, Joe says 12,000 public service jobs to go in Canberra. I have heard 12,000 before but was told that was national. 12,000 in Canberra would more than double our unemployment. This would turn Canberra into a pretty tough place to live for a while.

What Joe Hockey said on ABC News 24 was that 12,000 public service jobs would go BY NATURAL ATTRITION so it is not going to happen overnight which blows your doubling the ACT unemployment rate out of the water.
At the same time, job vacancies in the public service have fallen dramatically in the past two years under Labor. Do you honestly beleive that if Labor are re-elected in September that they won’t continue to sap the public service emeployment pool?

This. If the Libs are elected they will do things like freeze recruitment, offer VRs, and keep efficiency dividends to meet their figures over time. It won’t be a case of picking 12,000 names out of a hat telling them to clean out their desks by the end of the day. Not the end of-the-world sort of stuff people like this:

Jim Jones said :

Yeah, the libs are gonna get rid of 12,000 jobs totally *cough* “naturally”. Nothing to see here, move along.

would have you think. People like that also conveniently forget the 4,000 jobs cut in the last 12 months or so by the Labor government. You see, when Labor do it people like him call it “sensible decision making” and “efficiency dividends”. When Liberal do it, it’s “axing the APS” and “slashing and burning jobs”.

This message brought to you by the Liberal Party of Australia.

So your comment is bought to us by the Australian Labour Party?

What is the point of this argument? Under either option their will be pain.

Yes, we are in for a tough ride, or we could take Michael Moores view from the city news

http://city news.com.au/2013/why-Canberra-needs-to-vote-to-protect-itself/

But as a former independent his view may well be biased.

I can remember the power Brian Harradine had in the early years of the Howard gov. Is there a good local issues independent running? Or will be be forced to contemplate the greens

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