UPDATED Election 2020: Labor back for sixth term but Green surge surprises

19 October: 11.00 am What just happened in the ACT election? It’s the morning after and Genevieve Jacobs is with Professor John Warhurst to dissect the ACT election results.

18 October: 10.20 pm ACT Labor has been returned for a record sixth term and the Greens are celebrating a boost to their numbers in the Assembly after voters firmly rebuffed the Canberra Liberals’ case for a change of government.

The writing was on the wall early as Elections ACT crunched the massive 70 per cent pre-poll vote to reveal a swing of 3.6 per cent against the Liberals, who even lost their third member in the now-former stronghold of Ginninderra.

The Liberals polled 33.1 per cent, Labor’s vote barely shifted at 38.4 per cent but the Greens were buoyed by a swing to them of the same magnitude as the Liberal losses.

It will mean the Greens, who polled 14 per cent, will field at least three and possibly six members in the next Assembly and will have claims for another minister to join leader Shane Rattenbury.

Chief Minister Andrew Barr made his victory speech from the Belconnen Labor Club at about 9.40 pm, saying he would sit down with Mr Rattenbury in coming days to put a government together but he stressed it would be a Labor-led government.

Mr Barr called the victory a humbling experience, particularly in such an extraordinary year, and thanked the party and his family.

”We’ve got through it because we’ve applied progressive values to our government decisions and because we’ve applied compassion and we haven’t left people behind,” he said.

Mr Barr said he felt for the Canberra Liberals and their losses.

”We know what that feels like and that’s challenging. I want to acknowledge that a democracy only works if you have a strong opposition,” he said.

Mr Barr said the party’s decision to stick to a positive campaign message had been vindicated.

”Now, four years ago, in this very spot, I stood here and said that Canberrans had voted for light rail. Well, friends, they’ve done it again! And I think Labor’s resurgence on the south side tonight is testimony to just that.”

Mr Barr highlighted climate change and how Labor had handled the pandemic as resonating with voters.

”One very clear message from this campaign is that Canberrans have voted for real action on climate change,” he said.

”They voted for this city to continue to lead our nation in implementing good public policy that creates jobs, reduces greenhouse gas emissions and reduces cost of living. They voted for us to lead on progressive reforms and to pull the rest of Australia with us.

”They voted for a government who will always stand up for Canberra and one that will listen to expert advice when it comes to handling this pandemic.”

Opposition Leader Alistair Coe made his concession speech about 9:00 pm, wishing Mr Barr and his team and his husband, Anthony, all the best for the future.

He praised a professional and positive campaign and thanked all his team who worked so hard to win government.

He held out hope that the Liberal numbers can improve as preferences continue to be distributed.

Mr Coe, who campaigned relentlessly on the cost of living, again warned that Canberra was becoming a two-paced society.

“And it is incumbent upon the next government of the ACT to do much more to support those in this city who can’t afford rent, can’t afford to buy a home, are living in poverty or are doing it tough,’’ he said.

But Mr Coe made no mention of whether he would stay on as leader.

Mr Rattenbury firmly put inequality and climate change on the agenda for the coming Assembly.

”Through this campaign we have said now is not a time to snap back to the old normal. It has been a hard year for so many Canberrans. We don’t want to go back to the way it was. We want to deal with the climate crisis that sits there in the background. We must deal with the growing inequality in our society and we must deal with issues of housing affordability in this city,” he said.

In Brindabella, where 80 per cent of the vote has been counted, Labor is polling at 41 per cent with a swing of 7.4 per cent, and the Greens 10 per cent with swing of 5.8 per cent. The Liberals, with a primary vote of 38 per cent, are down 3.9 per cent.

Liberal Andrew Wall has fallen, and his spot will likely go to Labor’s Taimus Werner-Gibbings, with Green Johnathon Davis still a chance.

Liberal frontbencher Mark Parton is back, but he was one of the first very early in the night to concede that the opposition was facing an uphill battle to take government.

In Murrumbidgee, with 80 per cent of the vote counted, the swing against the Liberals is almost more than 8 per cent. The swing to Labor is 2.3 per cent and the Greens 1.2 per cent.

But sitting Labor member Bec Cody appears to have lost her seat to Labor colleague Marissa Paterson.

The Greens’ Emma Davidson will succeed Caroline Le Couteur, taking the fifth spot.

Independent and former president of the Woden Valley Community Council Fiona Carrick polled well but fell short.

In Kurrajong, with 77 per cent of the vote counted, the Greens, as expected, have polled strongly at nearly 24 per cent with a 5 per cent swing.

Chief Minister Andrew Barr has easily been returned, as has Greens leader Shane Rattenbury, with colleague Rebecca Vassarotti likely to join him in the Assembly by nudging out Liberal frontbencher Candice Burch.

In Ginninderra, the Belco Party has taken votes off the Canberra Liberals, which are polling at only 26 per cent with more than 70 per cent of the vote counted.

Labor’s vote is down marginally but it is polling at 40.6 per cent.

The Greens are polling at almost 13 per cent, and Jo Clay is still an outside chance of winning through.

Opposition Leader Alistair Coe’s seat Yerrabi is the only seat where there is any Liberal joy, with a swing of 4.7 per cent and a primary vote of 40.5 per cent. But James Milligan will make way for colleague Leanne Castley.

Labor suffered a shock swing of more than 9 per cent, in a seat where there have been major investments such as light rail and new schools. It has so far managed just 34.7 per cent of the vote, and lost Deepak-Raj Gupta.

But the Greens are polling at 10 per cent, enjoying 3.3 per cent swing, and it appears Andrew Braddock will also be elected.

Retiring Liberal frontbencher Vicki Dunne said the party was in for a time of assessment and reassessment.

”There will have to be some soul-searching about whether the campaign was good enough. It is clear it wasn’t good enough. I’m surprised at some of the very good campaigners that are seen to not be doing well,” she said.

Former leader Jeremy Hanson easily retained his seat. He blamed the loss on COVID-19 and voters wanting to stick with incumbent governments.

”I don’t think that there is a satisfaction out there with the government, but there is a lot of nervousness about COVID,” he said.

Mr Rattenbury said the electorate started to see there was not much behind the Liberal slogans.