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Lib HQ, forget panic – it’s time to put on the brown underpants!

By jimbocool 24 October 2008 43

OMFG! I know I said I wouldn’t post again until the end of the weekend because of the volatility in the ACT election count and I wanted some quality time alone with my slide rule to do some projections, well it seems there’s no need. I reckon it’s all over, the Greens get the last seat in Molonglo. Even the circumspect Antony Green has moved them into ‘favourite’ status for the last seat!. Tonight’s count, which included all the interesting booths I mentioned earlier today- except Red Hill for some reason, although Reid is counted – has Elena Kirshbaum a whopping 494 votes ahead of Giulia Jones at the crucial point.

By my count there’s 4401 First Preferences to go to the Libs, 2982 to the Greens in the remaining booths (including Red Hill, which isn’t on the list, but as I understand the alphabet comes before Reid, which has been counted). the Libs votes need to get TWO elected, whereas the Greens only ONE – so lets split it evenly between Hanson and Jones 2200 each. Jones is 494 votes behind Kirshbaum tonight. So, very roughly, Kirshbaum gets the residual of 2982 -say 2500 – plus the 494 she’s ahead, meaning that Hanson has to end up with 3,000 of these last booth votes to win – and these booths heavily favour Hanson. Other random preferences cancel each other out. I can’t see Jones making up the gap.

Le Couteur will overtake Kirshbaum shortly so it will be she who is elected.

Kudos to whoever it was who called “Black Swan” on two Greens in Molonglo.

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43 Responses to
Lib HQ, forget panic – it’s time to put on the brown underpants!
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miz 11:20 am 26 Oct 08

I would imagine lots of people who voted for Lab/Lib might not have allocated prefs, but it doesn’t seem to matter in their case as they get closer to a quota faster (sharing as they do).

I went for an indie and then preferenced up to 7.

Hare Clark just seems weird to me. I don’t really get it, it’s far too complicated to make any rational sense. To me it just seems to favour the established parties. It looks like people got in almost in direct proportion to their media coverage.

Speaking of which, I’m still pretty annoyed with the ABC and CT for not really giving much info about the smaller groups and indies. Canberrans were pretty desperate to find an alternative voice to Lab/Lib this time, which is unusual in a Labor town. I think that’s why Greens have quadrupled their vote – they got airtime/coverage AND were perceived as the only alternative, thus picking up HEAPS of protest votes. They are going to have to live up to the faith people have put in them to restore the balance!

jenny green 10:54 am 26 Oct 08

According to latest ABC article, Caroline has beaten some candidate called Julie Jones…

ant 10:36 am 26 Oct 08

Thumper said :

I still despair when I see someone with an AMP sticker on their car. What did they really think they would achieve?

Simple issues for simple people. All the big complex questions were too much, so they cleaved to a party who brought it back to the important things in life: cars.

Thank god their votes didn’t go anywhere!

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