OMFG! I know I said I wouldn’t post again until the end of the weekend because of the volatility in the ACT election count and I wanted some quality time alone with my slide rule to do some projections, well it seems there’s no need. I reckon it’s all over, the Greens get the last seat in Molonglo. Even the circumspect Antony Green has moved them into ‘favourite’ status for the last seat!. Tonight’s count, which included all the interesting booths I mentioned earlier today- except Red Hill for some reason, although Reid is counted – has Elena Kirshbaum a whopping 494 votes ahead of Giulia Jones at the crucial point.
By my count there’s 4401 First Preferences to go to the Libs, 2982 to the Greens in the remaining booths (including Red Hill, which isn’t on the list, but as I understand the alphabet comes before Reid, which has been counted). the Libs votes need to get TWO elected, whereas the Greens only ONE – so lets split it evenly between Hanson and Jones 2200 each. Jones is 494 votes behind Kirshbaum tonight. So, very roughly, Kirshbaum gets the residual of 2982 -say 2500 – plus the 494 she’s ahead, meaning that Hanson has to end up with 3,000 of these last booth votes to win – and these booths heavily favour Hanson. Other random preferences cancel each other out. I can’t see Jones making up the gap.
Le Couteur will overtake Kirshbaum shortly so it will be she who is elected.
Kudos to whoever it was who called “Black Swan” on two Greens in Molonglo.