Lib HQ, forget panic – it’s time to put on the brown underpants!

jimbocool 24 October 2008 43

OMFG! I know I said I wouldn’t post again until the end of the weekend because of the volatility in the ACT election count and I wanted some quality time alone with my slide rule to do some projections, well it seems there’s no need. I reckon it’s all over, the Greens get the last seat in Molonglo. Even the circumspect Antony Green has moved them into ‘favourite’ status for the last seat!. Tonight’s count, which included all the interesting booths I mentioned earlier today- except Red Hill for some reason, although Reid is counted – has Elena Kirshbaum a whopping 494 votes ahead of Giulia Jones at the crucial point.

By my count there’s 4401 First Preferences to go to the Libs, 2982 to the Greens in the remaining booths (including Red Hill, which isn’t on the list, but as I understand the alphabet comes before Reid, which has been counted). the Libs votes need to get TWO elected, whereas the Greens only ONE – so lets split it evenly between Hanson and Jones 2200 each. Jones is 494 votes behind Kirshbaum tonight. So, very roughly, Kirshbaum gets the residual of 2982 -say 2500 – plus the 494 she’s ahead, meaning that Hanson has to end up with 3,000 of these last booth votes to win – and these booths heavily favour Hanson. Other random preferences cancel each other out. I can’t see Jones making up the gap.

Le Couteur will overtake Kirshbaum shortly so it will be she who is elected.

Kudos to whoever it was who called “Black Swan” on two Greens in Molonglo.


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43 Responses to Lib HQ, forget panic – it’s time to put on the brown underpants!
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miz miz 11:20 am 26 Oct 08

I would imagine lots of people who voted for Lab/Lib might not have allocated prefs, but it doesn’t seem to matter in their case as they get closer to a quota faster (sharing as they do).

I went for an indie and then preferenced up to 7.

Hare Clark just seems weird to me. I don’t really get it, it’s far too complicated to make any rational sense. To me it just seems to favour the established parties. It looks like people got in almost in direct proportion to their media coverage.

Speaking of which, I’m still pretty annoyed with the ABC and CT for not really giving much info about the smaller groups and indies. Canberrans were pretty desperate to find an alternative voice to Lab/Lib this time, which is unusual in a Labor town. I think that’s why Greens have quadrupled their vote – they got airtime/coverage AND were perceived as the only alternative, thus picking up HEAPS of protest votes. They are going to have to live up to the faith people have put in them to restore the balance!

jenny green jenny green 10:54 am 26 Oct 08

According to latest ABC article, Caroline has beaten some candidate called Julie Jones…

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/10/25/2401247.htm

ant ant 10:36 am 26 Oct 08

Thumper said :

I still despair when I see someone with an AMP sticker on their car. What did they really think they would achieve?

Simple issues for simple people. All the big complex questions were too much, so they cleaved to a party who brought it back to the important things in life: cars.

Thank god their votes didn’t go anywhere!

Thumper Thumper 9:22 am 26 Oct 08

the Motorists and the C(R)AP – didn’t return votes to them. In fact, failures by their voters to preference probably cost seats.

So a proper democratic process has been somewhat tainted by CAP and AMP for not allocating preferences?

I still despair when I see someone with an AMP sticker on their car. What did they really think they would achieve?

Soolin Soolin 8:54 am 26 Oct 08

Dear Jonathon What a load of crap, are you still bitter about not running for the Libs in Molonglo? I’m sure you could have pulled at least 250 votes.

Jonathon Reynolds Jonathon Reynolds 8:22 am 26 Oct 08

Heard on the grapevine that Coe’s campaign cost in excess of $120,000 (mainly through donations)- the real value may be never known as the figures will be generically “buried” in the Liberal Party FAD return rather explicitly shown on individual candidate FAD returns.

Just goes to show that if you throw enough money at a campaign you can achieve a result.

Reference: http://www.elections.act.gov.au/parties/fad.html

disenfranchised disenfranchised 7:53 am 26 Oct 08

This was a very poor result for the Liberals. Watch now as the spin starts to mask this poor result. The facts speak for themselves. The Liberals have gone from 7 seats in 2004 to 6 seats in 2008. They have experienced a swing against the party of over 3%. Most importantly, this has happened at a time of a major fall in popularity for the incumbent Labor Government. This was the Liberals once in a decade opportunity to snatch government. The conditions won’t be so good in 2012 (against Gallagher). Yes Seselja scored many votes – but the campaign centred around him. We had ads about were he went on holidays as a kid! Smyth never had such a personally targeted campaign (because of course he didn’t need one, as he was well known). Seselja was made leader in December last year (10 months is more than long enough these days). The Liberals were the choice of 30% of the community (ie 70% didn’t choose them). They are now a Party comprised of mostly right wing MLAs pursuing a strong Christian (read Catholic) agenda. How do they expect to build their base on that?

ant ant 10:53 pm 25 Oct 08

Blow me down. Malcolm Mackerras finally got a prediction right. I was sure the Greens were SOL when he predicted them to get 4 seats, but there you go.

Primal Primal 10:40 pm 25 Oct 08

harley said :

ABC reports it’s been declared and is all official as of 8:10pm ish…

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/10/25/2401247.htm?section=justin

And then provides a complete statistical breakdown in a table… that is wrong.

Brilliant!

Jack Dorf Jack Dorf 10:38 pm 25 Oct 08

Man, there’s just no pleasing some people 🙂

Real poll junkies like it long & slow!

Even Zed said it would be another week in the Canberra Times this morning.

I know, that requires two filters.

Great result though – Go The Greens

Spectra Spectra 10:16 pm 25 Oct 08

I thought we had to wait another week?

Man, there’s just no pleasing some people 🙂

Curiously, in spite of claiming to have been updated mere minutes ago, the “Live Results” below that ABC story are still predicting 7 Lib seats. Makes you wonder what sort of prediction algorithm they have when it doesn’t even get seats right that have been officially declared 🙂

Jack Dorf Jack Dorf 9:56 pm 25 Oct 08

ACT Electoral Commission have declared it.

Greens 4, Cliberal 6, ALP 7.

I thought we had to wait another week?

harley harley 8:33 pm 25 Oct 08

ABC reports it’s been declared and is all official as of 8:10pm ish…

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/10/25/2401247.htm?section=justin

Skidbladnir Skidbladnir 4:35 pm 25 Oct 08

And it was used to describe a Black Swan event.
For context, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/black_swan_theory

Skidbladnir Skidbladnir 4:00 pm 25 Oct 08

Ari said :

Hey Caf, black swan is bingo-callers’ slang for the number 2.

I don’t think it is referring to a particular poster.

Maybe it is a bingo call, but the Black swan was mentioned on Riotact as an arguing point in Zugzwang, but its was ns who used the phrase over in http://the-riotact.com/?p=9404

#12 posted by ns
(Rioter)
10:59, 22 Oct 2008

If the Greens get more than 3 seats I think you can definitely call this a Black Swan.

Bruce K Bruce K 3:09 pm 25 Oct 08

Look at what just came into my possession. An email from Gary Kent.

Dear all

I am writing to thank you for your tremendous help and support during the recent election campaign. Although I was not successful this was unrelated to your sterling efforts on my behalf. If I had my time over I would do a l lot of things differently but you live and learn. One of the pleasures of the campaign was the strengthening of old and making of new friendships and I am very grateful for that.

Right now we must all hope that the Canberra Liberals win the critical third seat in Molonglo and I wish Jeremy and Giulia all the best in that battle.

I think the Canberra Liberals team performed fantastically over the past few months and I pay a special tribute to Zed Seselja who captured Canberra’s imagination with his ability to drive forward the Liberal agenda and clearly rattle a defensive Chief Minister. It was a sterling performance and one of which we should all be very proud.

Congratulations to Alistair Coe and Steve Doszpot who each put in amazing efforts to win their seats.

Best regards to you all and thank you once again.

Gary Kent

Gary no congratulation to Vicki and Brendan, just your mates Coe & Doszpot – typical.

Enjoy your next visit to Caphs with them.

Bruce K Bruce K 3:03 pm 25 Oct 08

BTW we haven’t heard anymore about Jones and the printing thing in Queensland. Does anyone have any news on that.

Bruce K Bruce K 3:03 pm 25 Oct 08

I have to agree with VicePope.

They would have spent $400,000 on the campaign to promote and raise his profile and to only get 1.5 quotas is embarrassing to say the least. Vicepoe, I disagree his vote was dragged up by a lack lustre team, it was more that he wouldn’t let them talk. Notice only the right wingers received press.

Humphries got 1.6 quotas and they didn’t run a presidential campaign like this one. And when Humphries ran you knew who he was running with, they didn’t hide half their candidates.

When will they get it, Canberrans are looking for a socially conservative small “l” liberal, moderate party to vote for. Not a bunch of right wing bible bashing anti abortion anti euthanasia rednecks. Yes rednecks is the only way you can describe Zed, Vicki, Coe and Jones. Join the 21st century people.

It will be interesting to see what the AGM holds for the liberals – I smell a backlash against the right. Lets hope thats the case and we can get some decent liberals to vote for.

If you ran a corporation this way the CEO would be gone. Zed should fall on his sword as well as the others I mentioned higher up.

Be nice if the CT would pick up this thread.

VicePope VicePope 2:07 pm 25 Oct 08

Soolin – have to disagree again. Every story on WIN this year that had an ACT spin was accompanied by Zed or one of his happy gang saying whatever it is that politicians say. Ditto the radio. I wouldn’t have counted the Canberra Times stories. He was known out there – ultimately, the punters just didn’t want him.

Agree however on the coverage of NSW politics. It’s more exciting (a bearpit Assembly, Della Bosca, the lamentable Costa and Sartor a government in difficulties, an opposition with more ideologies and feuds than members and, locally, a “National Nine” news coverage fixated on NSW, ie Sydney. Good grief, they even had an assassination a few years back). Somehow, the local sandpit is just not as much fun.

Soolin Soolin 1:26 pm 25 Oct 08

I’m with Hobbyhorse1 on this. Zed didn’t get a lot of media coverage until the actual campaign – so that negates the honeymoon effect.

Canberrans could quite easily know more about what’s happening in NSW politics than what goes on right here. Shortly after Zed took over the leadership a lot of people couldn’t tell you his name. I think most Canberrans would get it right now.

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