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Lib HQ, forget panic – it’s time to put on the brown underpants!

By jimbocool - 24 October 2008 43

OMFG! I know I said I wouldn’t post again until the end of the weekend because of the volatility in the ACT election count and I wanted some quality time alone with my slide rule to do some projections, well it seems there’s no need. I reckon it’s all over, the Greens get the last seat in Molonglo. Even the circumspect Antony Green has moved them into ‘favourite’ status for the last seat!. Tonight’s count, which included all the interesting booths I mentioned earlier today- except Red Hill for some reason, although Reid is counted – has Elena Kirshbaum a whopping 494 votes ahead of Giulia Jones at the crucial point.

By my count there’s 4401 First Preferences to go to the Libs, 2982 to the Greens in the remaining booths (including Red Hill, which isn’t on the list, but as I understand the alphabet comes before Reid, which has been counted). the Libs votes need to get TWO elected, whereas the Greens only ONE – so lets split it evenly between Hanson and Jones 2200 each. Jones is 494 votes behind Kirshbaum tonight. So, very roughly, Kirshbaum gets the residual of 2982 -say 2500 – plus the 494 she’s ahead, meaning that Hanson has to end up with 3,000 of these last booth votes to win – and these booths heavily favour Hanson. Other random preferences cancel each other out. I can’t see Jones making up the gap.

Le Couteur will overtake Kirshbaum shortly so it will be she who is elected.

Kudos to whoever it was who called “Black Swan” on two Greens in Molonglo.

What’s Your opinion?

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43 Responses to
Lib HQ, forget panic – it’s time to put on the brown underpants!
Tetranitrate 9:32 am 25 Oct 08

At least Labor has a few competent people to replace Stanhope with – who do the liberals have?
There’s no way they would accept Smyth so that leaves Vicki Dunne and several new MLA’s who aren’t going to realistically be able to become leader in the near future.
Do you really think Vicki Dunne is a good choice for leader?

Tetranitrate 9:28 am 25 Oct 08

disenfranchised – fall on his sword? are you joking?
If indeed you’re correct that they’re too socially conservative Zed’s the least of your worries.

Even without Giulia, right wingers are now at least half the parliamentary party (anyone know where Hanson stands?).
Dunne, Doszpot, Coe.
Hanson expressed a lot of support for Zed on election night so assuming that’s true, Zed has a reliable 3.

With equal votes would this mean they flip a coin on who gets to be leader next time they have a spill?
How ironic.

Ari 8:52 am 25 Oct 08

Hey Caf, black swan is bingo-callers’ slang for the number 2.

I don’t think it is referring to a particular poster.

As Jimbocool says: Kudos to whoever it was who called “Black Swan” on two Greens in Molonglo.

So, yes, Mackerras gets the kudos.

harley 8:52 am 25 Oct 08

caf said :

Black Swan my shapely butt…

Need evidence for the shapely butt, please.

caf 8:43 am 25 Oct 08

Black Swan my shapely butt, in my book all the kudos goes to Malcolm Mackerras for predicting exactly this (as reported in Mumble, October 18).

disenfranchised 8:40 am 25 Oct 08

It has been interesting to observe Seselja’s bravado. He leads a party for 10 months (which is more than long enough these days – ask Barnett), achieves a swing AGAINST his party of over 3 per cent, at a time when there was a massive community falling out with Stanhope and his team, and now wants the prize of government. The result in this election has been that the Liberals garnered around 30 per cent of the vote – that is a very POOR result. Smyth did better in 2004 overall. That’s right – check the figures. Is it too much to ask that Seselja and his Chief of Staff Doyle pull their heads in and get rid of the swagger? By the way I thought employing family in your office was frowned upon. The Liberals have become right wing Catholic dominated. Not a hint of “small l” about that group. This election shows they are unelectable with their current right wing hue. It is plain silly to be declaring victory, trying to mask the underlying failure of this campaign. This was their best opportunity for a decade and they could only get 30 per cent across the board! If Jones loses, Seselja must fall on his sword. Six seats would be an unmitigated failure. Equally, it is time for Stanhope to go too. There are rumblings already in both camps.

Ari 8:08 am 25 Oct 08

Hey Jimbocool – perhaps one of these is a way out of your current dilemma –

And thanks for the psephological goodness.

PantsMan 12:32 am 25 Oct 08

Zed’s dead baby! Zed is dead.

Jack Dorf 11:46 pm 24 Oct 08

Jimbo – you and your slide rule have been an inspiration over the last week. Great work.

Tetranitrate 11:02 pm 24 Oct 08

No, the greens can still decide who governs, but labor has a much stronger mandate now.

ant 10:53 pm 24 Oct 08

It’s all very puzzling, but the good guys might do even better. But. will this not mean that Labor have the largest number of candidates in? And can therefore claim gov’t without anyone’s help? Although I guess if the greens then hopped in with the Liberals, they’d have it.

Most puzzling. I hope the greens do it however.

Tetranitrate 10:45 pm 24 Oct 08

So Hanson gets up, Jones doesn’t? sorry, that isn’t entirely clear to me, need sleep

jimbocool 10:04 pm 24 Oct 08

damn you sepi! And after all I did in explaining Hare Clark! Let’s just wait until the poll is declared…hat eating may well just be a non-core promise!

sepi 9:37 pm 24 Oct 08

Kewl – now who was going to eat their hat???

jessieduck 9:36 pm 24 Oct 08

You’ve made my evening jimbocool- great news!

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