16 May 2011

Are we in for an extremely cold winter?

16 May 2011 | jacarandas

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Is it just me or is Autumn this year extremely cold?

I don’t recall seeing negative temperatures during Autumn last year. We hit -6.7 degrees Saturday night.

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Diggety11:51 am 19 May 11

Jethro said :

Diggety said :

Jethro said :

pierce said :

Read a book.

…apart from the fact that current temperature increases are occurring at a rate about 10X faster than was seen at the end of the last ice age..

Time to update that book collection. Predictions are changing at a faster rate than the climate, funnily (and understandably) enough.

Scientists- particularly those who aren’t trying their hand at politics- have learned it is wise to refrain from announcing dire predictions or effects, until they have a good degree of certainty.

Where is the lack of certainty that temperatures have risen by close to 1 degree in the last century?

There are very clear records of this occurring. That is not a prediction of future rate of change, but of change that has already occurred. If it took 5000 years for temperatures to change 5 degrees and it has taken 100 years for temperatures to change 1 degree that is evidence that the current (not future) rate of change is 10X faster than the end of the last ice age.

First, “certainty” in science is a big call. It is a status that requires a lot of scrutiny, agreement, empirical evidence (repeatable) and solid theory. The one thing that is certain is that 1’C increase in 20th century is not certain (yet). And the rate of increase you mentioned will take even longer for a proof.

Three things:
1. Method of data collection, this is particularly an issue for historical evidence (in this case you have used at least two methods, i.e. cavemen didn’t have thermometers.
2. Data interpretation. So much contention over a curve! Deriving a conclusion or even further hypothesis has (and will continue to be) difficult for wider acceptance, simply due to statistical acceptance.
3. Temperature variables- this is a hot debate at the moment with some methods of data collection/interpretation.

Jethro8:36 pm 18 May 11

Diggety said :

Jethro said :

pierce said :

Read a book.

…apart from the fact that current temperature increases are occurring at a rate about 10X faster than was seen at the end of the last ice age..

Time to update that book collection. Predictions are changing at a faster rate than the climate, funnily (and understandably) enough.

Scientists- particularly those who aren’t trying their hand at politics- have learned it is wise to refrain from announcing dire predictions or effects, until they have a good degree of certainty.

Where is the lack of certainty that temperatures have risen by close to 1 degree in the last century?

There are very clear records of this occurring. That is not a prediction of future rate of change, but of change that has already occurred. If it took 5000 years for temperatures to change 5 degrees and it has taken 100 years for temperatures to change 1 degree that is evidence that the current (not future) rate of change is 10X faster than the end of the last ice age.

Diggety10:11 am 18 May 11

Jethro said :

pierce said :

Read a book.

…apart from the fact that current temperature increases are occurring at a rate about 10X faster than was seen at the end of the last ice age..

Time to update that book collection. Predictions are changing at a faster rate than the climate, funnily (and understandably) enough.

Scientists- particularly those who aren’t trying their hand at politics- have learned it is wise to refrain from announcing dire predictions or effects, until they have a good degree of certainty.

Jethro11:38 pm 17 May 11

zig said :

pierce said :

The term Climate Change more accurately reflects the impact that rising global temperatures have on the Earth’s climate – most notably greater extremes in all forms of weather. Yes, including cold.

Read a book.

U mad bro?

History shows climate change is cyclical so I don’t buy into the sky is falling in theory.

All good and well, apart from the fact that current temperature increases are occurring at a rate about 10X faster than was seen at the end of the last ice age. (It took about 5000 years for the Earth’s temperature to increase by about 5.5 degrees… the Earths’ temperautre has increased by close to 2 degree in less than one hundred years.)

But don’t worry. It’s a natural fluctuation. (Note: I always trust the armchair scientists over the real ones)

I said
“increase by 2 degree”

typo… should have said “1 degree” don’t want to be accused of anything here…

Jethro11:37 pm 17 May 11

zig said :

pierce said :

The term Climate Change more accurately reflects the impact that rising global temperatures have on the Earth’s climate – most notably greater extremes in all forms of weather. Yes, including cold.

Read a book.

U mad bro?

History shows climate change is cyclical so I don’t buy into the sky is falling in theory.

All good and well, apart from the fact that current temperature increases are occurring at a rate about 10X faster than was seen at the end of the last ice age. (It took about 5000 years for the Earth’s temperature to increase by about 5.5 degrees… the Earths’ temperautre has increased by close to 1 degree in less than one hundred years.)

But don’t worry. It’s a natural fluctuation. (Note: I always trust the armchair scientists over the real ones)

zig3:42 pm 17 May 11

pierce said :

The term Climate Change more accurately reflects the impact that rising global temperatures have on the Earth’s climate – most notably greater extremes in all forms of weather. Yes, including cold.

Read a book.

U mad bro?

History shows climate change is cyclical so I don’t buy into the sky is falling in theory.

I’m all for lessening our environmental impact as much as possible but I think there needs to be balance. 🙂

troll-sniffer said :

John Moulis said :

This means that it is perfectly possible to get colder winters as part of the cycle.

Yep and it was the coldest May since 1974 so it’s happened before. Woopy Doo.

spinact9:14 pm 16 May 11

Pommy bastard said :

I certaily hope we’re in for a cold one, makes me quite homesick.

Mind you I could do without all the idiots driving in pea-soup fog with no lights on, as evidenced this morning…

And the same idiots probably have their fogs lights on when there is no fog

bobzed578:59 pm 16 May 11

creative_canberran said :

The BoM also seems to be getting it very badly wrong this year. And obviously wrong too.
Day after day of predicting 0 for the overnight and instead it drops to -3 or more… isn’t someone going to wake up and realise something is wrong with their predictions? And predicting 15 as today’s max when it is -7 overnight, foggy and partly cloudy… well that was never going to happen. It’s 2pm and only just reached +7 degrees.

Don’t forget the BOM and the CSIRO have an interest in pushing the warming barrow, it’s good for the grant and funding business.

troll-sniffer8:44 pm 16 May 11

John Moulis said :

Gee, good thing we have “global warming” or whatever it’s being called this week. Just think how cold it would be otherwise. The reason why “global warming” was rebranded “climate change” was because we had several very cold winters during the drought and the public were seeing right through the stupid and fallacious greenie BS.

If you took your finger out of where the sun don’t shine and used it to flick through some research instead of pontificating from a pinnacle of ignorance, you would start to understand that global warming, climate change, AGW, whatever you want to call it, has little to do with a uniform increase that would lead to warmer winters etc. What it does do is increase the planet’s requirement to shift heat from the equatorial regions to the poles. The more heat at the equator, the faster the transfer must take place over the course of a year or several. This leads to more erratic weather, sometimes it’s manifested in more violent winds, mostly it is just showing up by more extreme weather. This means that it is perfectly possible to get colder winters as part of the cycle. But I guess if you haven’t bothered to find that out by now, and possibly don’t have the necessary to understand it, you will be unlikely to ever accept it. It’s soooo much easier to sit back in front of your plasma TV and poo poo it isn’t it?

pierce8:25 pm 16 May 11

The term Climate Change more accurately reflects the impact that rising global temperatures have on the Earth’s climate – most notably greater extremes in all forms of weather. Yes, including cold.

Read a book.

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