16 October 2016

Yes we can build the tram: ALP/Greens victorious

16 October 2016 | Charlotte

Tonight, hundreds of Canberrans in red shirts chanted, “Build the tram! Build the tram! Build the tram!” in between choruses of “Four more years! Four more years! Four more years!” as Chief Minister Andrew Barr claimed victory in the 2016 ACT Legislative Assembly election.

See Mr Barr’s speech here:

Labor and Greens supporters have for months referred exclusively to the public transport project that formed one of the key issues in the ACT election campaign as light rail, while its detractors used the word tram.

Clearly, that distinction was no longer deemed necessary.

Stages one and two of the light rail network, between Gungahlin and Woden, will be built.

The results became evident much earlier in the night (or week even) than anyone had expected, with the ABC’s Antony Green calling it for Labor shortly before 8.30pm. The result included a swing as had been predicted, but away from the Liberals, as had not.

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With 78.1 per cent of the vote counted early this morning, there was a projected 3.3 per cent swing against the Liberals. Most of that swing was expected to go to minor parties and independents, with a 0.2 per cent swing towards Labor and 0.1 per cent away from the Greens.

Canberra Liberals leader Jeremy Hanson conceded last night that it would be difficult for his party to form government, and congratulated Chief Minister Andrew Barr on retaining office. He addressed party faithful at the Canberra Southern Cross Club.

See Mr Hanson’s speech here:

ACT Greens Leader Shane Rattenbury, who was at the pokies-free Polish Club in Turner with his fellow Greens candidates and supporters, spoke with Mr Barr during the evening to give his commitment that the Greens would once again work with Labor to form a progressive government.

See Mr Rattenbury’s speech to Greens supporters here:

Winners and losers

Returned sitting MLAs include Mr Rattenbury; Mr Barr and his Labor colleagues Joy Burch, Mick Gentleman, Yvette Berry and Meegan Fitzharris; and Mr Hanson and his Liberals colleagues Steve Doszpot, Giulia Jones, Vicki Dunne and Alistair Coe.

At risk of losing their seats are incumbents Chris Bourke, Jayson Hinder and Nicole Lawder (though on Sunday morning ABC elections expert Antony Green indicated he expected Ms Lawder to be elected ahead of Steven Bailey of the Sex Party).

Candidates who would be new to the Assembly and are likely to be elected based on the latest count are Elizabeth Lee, Mark Parton, James Milligan and Paul Sweeney for the Liberals; Caroline Le Couteur for the Greens; and Rachel Stephen-Smith, Bec Cody, Chris Steel, Tara Cheyne, Gordon Ramsay, Suzanne Orr and Michael Pettersson for Labor.

In that other election contest being decided tonight, the RiotACT candidate bake-off, Labor’s Jennifer Newman picked up the editor’s choice award for her chocolate balloons cake, and Like Canberra’s Maryann Mussared won the readers’ choice gong.

Pictured are Chief Minister Andrew Barr with his family (photo: Chester Ward); the Canberra Liberals’ function (photo: Josh Mulrine); and Shane Rattenbury and supporters (photo: Charlotte Harper).

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dungfungus10:27 am 01 Dec 16

Not only will we build it but it will be better than any other, cheaper and without any of the latent business plan omissions NSW are now confronting:

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/cbd-and-south-east-light-rail-project-report-shows-lengthy-travel-times-and-extra-costs/news-story/bb9407ff3222579d8c3a07a697d9d81b

James7:41 pm 25 Nov 16

Let’s go to the City
cool, how do we get there
Rail
cool how do we get there
we get the bus
oh

JC12:18 pm 25 Oct 16

dungfungus said :

JC said :

dungfungus said :

Why are you still banging on about the Federal situation?

I expressly referred to the Canberra Liberals who don’t have a coalition partner unlike Labor who have the Greens, the public service and the Trade Unions.

Umm, umm, no you didn’t. You said 50% of AUSTRALIANS, not 50% of CANBERRANS. Now if you are talking Canberrans then you are even more wrong, as the primary vote was Labor 38.4% to Liberal 36.7%. And if you add in the ACT coalitions partners the greens it was 48.7% to 36.7%.

So no matter which way you want to spin it your assertion that 50% of Australians support the Liberals is pure fantasy.

This is what I said:
“So that means the Canberra Liberals won the 2012 election because they had more seats than Labor?”

I can’t help it if you are denial about it.

I think the conversation history says something different.

Let me remind you.

I said “And a vote for the Liberals is a nightmare!”

You said “More that 50% of Australians don’t think so.”

I said “More than 50%. Really? Remind me what was the Liberal party first preference vote at the recent ACT election or indeed this years Federal election. Was it really greater than 50%?

Clear enough?

Also the Libs did not win more seats at the 2012 election either. It was 8 seats each with 1 to the greens.

Check mate.

dungfungus9:21 pm 24 Oct 16

JC said :

dungfungus said :

Why are you still banging on about the Federal situation?

I expressly referred to the Canberra Liberals who don’t have a coalition partner unlike Labor who have the Greens, the public service and the Trade Unions.

Umm, umm, no you didn’t. You said 50% of AUSTRALIANS, not 50% of CANBERRANS. Now if you are talking Canberrans then you are even more wrong, as the primary vote was Labor 38.4% to Liberal 36.7%. And if you add in the ACT coalitions partners the greens it was 48.7% to 36.7%.

So no matter which way you want to spin it your assertion that 50% of Australians support the Liberals is pure fantasy.

This is what I said:
“So that means the Canberra Liberals won the 2012 election because they had more seats than Labor?”

I can’t help it if you are denial about it.

Maya1238:01 pm 24 Oct 16

JC said :

John Moulis said :

Actually the Libs didn’t have more votes than Labor. The Liberal party had 28.7% of first preference votes at the last federal election compare to Labor on 34.7%. However once you add in the votes of the coalition partners the Libs jumped to 42.0%.

And interestingly if you added the greens to Labor (as many on this board always do to suit their political arguments) it would then be Labor/Greens 46.9% to the coalition on 42%.

So in actual fact more people vote towards the left than vote towards the right. Even if the government has taken control with their one seat majority.

An interesting article in Fairfax following the federal poll said that if the first past the post voting system used in other countries was used in that election rather than preferential voting, the Coalition would have had a majority of 13 seats rather than just one. I’d always thought that preferential voting was unrepresentative and first past the post was better but after reading that I’m glad that preferential voting was used because there is no way the Coalition should have won by a landslide given the amount of discontent with them and the closeness of the opinion polls leading up to the election.

That was an interesting read. However it is based on the assumption that people would vote the same way in a first past the post election.

” I’d always thought that preferential voting was unrepresentative and first past the post was better”

It is first past the post that has the most potential to be unrepresentative. Let me give an hypothetical example of how first past the post voting can be really unrepresentative of how the electorate feels. One party gets 30% of the vote and wins, because although 70% of the electorate didn’t vote for them and would have put them at the bottom of the ballet paper if given the chance, and voted for the opposite side of the political spectrum, they voted for a number of parties of which not one of them received 30% of the vote, because the vote was split. 70% of the electorate might have preferred any of those other parties over the one that won. However in the first past the post system they are stuck with a party representing them that does not represent the views of most people in the electorate. In other words, 70% of the electorate had their wishes ignored, because of the vote being split. In a preferential system this wouldn’t happen, because if the first choice doesn’t get up the vote passes to the second choice and so on.

JC6:21 pm 24 Oct 16

John Moulis said :

Actually the Libs didn’t have more votes than Labor. The Liberal party had 28.7% of first preference votes at the last federal election compare to Labor on 34.7%. However once you add in the votes of the coalition partners the Libs jumped to 42.0%.

And interestingly if you added the greens to Labor (as many on this board always do to suit their political arguments) it would then be Labor/Greens 46.9% to the coalition on 42%.

So in actual fact more people vote towards the left than vote towards the right. Even if the government has taken control with their one seat majority.

An interesting article in Fairfax following the federal poll said that if the first past the post voting system used in other countries was used in that election rather than preferential voting, the Coalition would have had a majority of 13 seats rather than just one. I’d always thought that preferential voting was unrepresentative and first past the post was better but after reading that I’m glad that preferential voting was used because there is no way the Coalition should have won by a landslide given the amount of discontent with them and the closeness of the opinion polls leading up to the election.

That was an interesting read. However it is based on the assumption that people would vote the same way in a first past the post election.

JC6:18 pm 24 Oct 16

dungfungus said :

Why are you still banging on about the Federal situation?

I expressly referred to the Canberra Liberals who don’t have a coalition partner unlike Labor who have the Greens, the public service and the Trade Unions.

Umm, umm, no you didn’t. You said 50% of AUSTRALIANS, not 50% of CANBERRANS. Now if you are talking Canberrans then you are even more wrong, as the primary vote was Labor 38.4% to Liberal 36.7%. And if you add in the ACT coalitions partners the greens it was 48.7% to 36.7%.

So no matter which way you want to spin it your assertion that 50% of Australians support the Liberals is pure fantasy.

John Moulis4:56 pm 24 Oct 16

JC said :

dungfungus said :

dungfungus said :

JC said :

dungfungus said :

JC said :

dungfungus said :

JC said :

dungfungus said :

wildturkeycanoe said :

So Labor didn’t technically win the election but with Green’s support they can govern. This to me pretty much means that the Greens have won because they have the last say in everything that has to be decided. If they don’t like it, Labor has to come grovelling at their feet with promises to fulfill the environmental lobbyist’s desires. What a dud. Instead of half the A.C.T not getting who they voted for, nearly 90% of us ended up with a party at the steering wheel we didn’t elect. It’s worse than just having Labor win outright.

Everywhere else in Australia, a vote for the Greens is a vote for Labor.

In the ACT, a vote for Labor is a vote for the Greens.

And a vote for the Liberals is a nightmare!

More that 50% of Australians don’t think so.

More than 50%. Really? Remind me what was the Liberal party first preference vote at the recent ACT election or indeed this years Federal election. Was it really greater than 50%?

Or Are you using the same theory that ACT Labor didn’t win the last election because they didn’t get 50% of the votes or an absolute majority? Yet who is forming government?

In case you haven’t noticed, the Federal government is a conservative majority one.

I understood anything over 50% was a majority but the left could have changed that I concede.

You said more than 50% of Australians. The government is in power because they have over 50% of the seats but only 42% of first preference vote. So I would say 58% of people disagree with you. Oh and even then they need the support of the nationals which except in QLD (and maybe NT) is a different party.

So that means the Canberra Liberals won the 2012 election because they had more seats than Labor?

I meant “more votes than Labor”.

Actually the Libs didn’t have more votes than Labor. The Liberal party had 28.7% of first preference votes at the last federal election compare to Labor on 34.7%. However once you add in the votes of the coalition partners the Libs jumped to 42.0%.

And interestingly if you added the greens to Labor (as many on this board always do to suit their political arguments) it would then be Labor/Greens 46.9% to the coalition on 42%.

So in actual fact more people vote towards the left than vote towards the right. Even if the government has taken control with their one seat majority.

HiddenDragon4:45 pm 24 Oct 16

Happily, this won’t be a problem for the ACT, because we are special and different, and our Government never makes foreseeable mistakes and always learns from the experience of other jurisdictions –

https://grattan.edu.au/report/cost-overruns-in-transport-infrastructure/

chewy144:28 pm 24 Oct 16

JC said :

And an interesting read on the Nationals and their role in the government. Though of course they wouldn’t be silly enough to rip apart the coalition would they?

http://www.canberratimes.com.au/comment/the-nationals-and-their-fringe-views-are-holding-australia-to-ransom-20161021-gs7q67.html

Almost perfectly reflects the situation with the Greens in the ACT.

dungfungus4:12 pm 24 Oct 16

JC said :

dungfungus said :

dungfungus said :

JC said :

dungfungus said :

JC said :

dungfungus said :

JC said :

dungfungus said :

wildturkeycanoe said :

So Labor didn’t technically win the election but with Green’s support they can govern. This to me pretty much means that the Greens have won because they have the last say in everything that has to be decided. If they don’t like it, Labor has to come grovelling at their feet with promises to fulfill the environmental lobbyist’s desires. What a dud. Instead of half the A.C.T not getting who they voted for, nearly 90% of us ended up with a party at the steering wheel we didn’t elect. It’s worse than just having Labor win outright.

Everywhere else in Australia, a vote for the Greens is a vote for Labor.

In the ACT, a vote for Labor is a vote for the Greens.

And a vote for the Liberals is a nightmare!

More that 50% of Australians don’t think so.

More than 50%. Really? Remind me what was the Liberal party first preference vote at the recent ACT election or indeed this years Federal election. Was it really greater than 50%?

Or Are you using the same theory that ACT Labor didn’t win the last election because they didn’t get 50% of the votes or an absolute majority? Yet who is forming government?

In case you haven’t noticed, the Federal government is a conservative majority one.

I understood anything over 50% was a majority but the left could have changed that I concede.

You said more than 50% of Australians. The government is in power because they have over 50% of the seats but only 42% of first preference vote. So I would say 58% of people disagree with you. Oh and even then they need the support of the nationals which except in QLD (and maybe NT) is a different party.

So that means the Canberra Liberals won the 2012 election because they had more seats than Labor?

I meant “more votes than Labor”.

Actually the Libs didn’t have more votes than Labor. The Liberal party had 28.7% of first preference votes at the last federal election compare to Labor on 34.7%. However once you add in the votes of the coalition partners the Libs jumped to 42.0%.

And interestingly if you added the greens to Labor (as many on this board always do to suit their political arguments) it would then be Labor/Greens 46.9% to the coalition on 42%.

So in actual fact more people vote towards the left than vote towards the right. Even if the government has taken control with their one seat majority.

Why are you still banging on about the Federal situation?

I expressly referred to the Canberra Liberals who don’t have a coalition partner unlike Labor who have the Greens, the public service and the Trade Unions.

JC2:27 pm 24 Oct 16

dungfungus said :

dungfungus said :

JC said :

dungfungus said :

JC said :

dungfungus said :

JC said :

dungfungus said :

wildturkeycanoe said :

So Labor didn’t technically win the election but with Green’s support they can govern. This to me pretty much means that the Greens have won because they have the last say in everything that has to be decided. If they don’t like it, Labor has to come grovelling at their feet with promises to fulfill the environmental lobbyist’s desires. What a dud. Instead of half the A.C.T not getting who they voted for, nearly 90% of us ended up with a party at the steering wheel we didn’t elect. It’s worse than just having Labor win outright.

Everywhere else in Australia, a vote for the Greens is a vote for Labor.

In the ACT, a vote for Labor is a vote for the Greens.

And a vote for the Liberals is a nightmare!

More that 50% of Australians don’t think so.

More than 50%. Really? Remind me what was the Liberal party first preference vote at the recent ACT election or indeed this years Federal election. Was it really greater than 50%?

Or Are you using the same theory that ACT Labor didn’t win the last election because they didn’t get 50% of the votes or an absolute majority? Yet who is forming government?

In case you haven’t noticed, the Federal government is a conservative majority one.

I understood anything over 50% was a majority but the left could have changed that I concede.

You said more than 50% of Australians. The government is in power because they have over 50% of the seats but only 42% of first preference vote. So I would say 58% of people disagree with you. Oh and even then they need the support of the nationals which except in QLD (and maybe NT) is a different party.

So that means the Canberra Liberals won the 2012 election because they had more seats than Labor?

I meant “more votes than Labor”.

Actually the Libs didn’t have more votes than Labor. The Liberal party had 28.7% of first preference votes at the last federal election compare to Labor on 34.7%. However once you add in the votes of the coalition partners the Libs jumped to 42.0%.

And interestingly if you added the greens to Labor (as many on this board always do to suit their political arguments) it would then be Labor/Greens 46.9% to the coalition on 42%.

So in actual fact more people vote towards the left than vote towards the right. Even if the government has taken control with their one seat majority.

Maya1238:31 pm 23 Oct 16

JC said :

dungfungus said :

JC said :

dungfungus said :

JC said :

dungfungus said :

wildturkeycanoe said :

So Labor didn’t technically win the election but with Green’s support they can govern. This to me pretty much means that the Greens have won because they have the last say in everything that has to be decided. If they don’t like it, Labor has to come grovelling at their feet with promises to fulfill the environmental lobbyist’s desires. What a dud. Instead of half the A.C.T not getting who they voted for, nearly 90% of us ended up with a party at the steering wheel we didn’t elect. It’s worse than just having Labor win outright.

Everywhere else in Australia, a vote for the Greens is a vote for Labor.

In the ACT, a vote for Labor is a vote for the Greens.

And a vote for the Liberals is a nightmare!

More that 50% of Australians don’t think so.

More than 50%. Really? Remind me what was the Liberal party first preference vote at the recent ACT election or indeed this years Federal election. Was it really greater than 50%?

Or Are you using the same theory that ACT Labor didn’t win the last election because they didn’t get 50% of the votes or an absolute majority? Yet who is forming government?

In case you haven’t noticed, the Federal government is a conservative majority one.

I understood anything over 50% was a majority but the left could have changed that I concede.

You said more than 50% of Australians. The government is in power because they have over 50% of the seats but only 42% of first preference vote. So I would say 58% of people disagree with you. Oh and even then they need the support of the nationals which except in QLD (and maybe NT) is a different party.

We don’t have a first past the post system, thankfully, so quoting first preference votes as being a guide is misleading. It means that more people preferred one party over the other, even if it wasn’t their first preference.

gooterz12:36 pm 16 Oct 16

Maya123 said :

wildturkeycanoe said :

Sorry for double post, but I also would like to mention my personal gripe with the electoral “hare rabbit” system. Labor only gets around 40% of the primary vote. How is that a decisive victory when nearly 60% of voters do not want Labor at the helm? We will keep counting preferences till it is all over but still, Canberra will have a party in power that most people may not have cast a single vote for or who was possibly thirteenth or worse on their list. Even with the Green’s support, half the territory won’t be happy. I personally think we are given too many choices. With thirty three candidates in one electorate for example, to fill only five seats, when a party has five candidates vying for a spot, the odds of one of them getting in increases from 33:1 to 6.6:1. Even more so because people are less likely to vote for an independent who has no party affiliates in other electorates, because even if they got a seat they cannot have a majority and would be shouted down by the winning major party, whoever that is. So when it all comes down to it, the only parties that even have a chance of forming a government are Labor or Liberal, whilst anybody else would not have the numbers to gain control. If this was put to a second vote and we only had the red and blue team to choose from, I wonder which way it would have gone.
BTW, why have a “Who did you vote for?” poll after the election, when the results are already available on the election A.C.T website? The results here would really only reflect the political leanings of your subscribers, who in my mind were overwhelmingly in support of the Liberals.

It doesn’t mean that 60% of the voters don’t want Labor at the helm. It means that more people put Labor somewhere on their list ahead of the Liberals, meaning, even if they didn’t put them first, after their preferred candidate didn’t get up, they would prefer Labor than the alternative.

Preferences haven’t come into it at all

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