The Bureau of Meteorology is giving notice there aren’t any El Nino shenanigans predicted for the coming summer:
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has remained neutral since mid-2012, with all atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO presently within neutral bounds. International climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest that the neutral ENSO-pattern will persist through the coming summer.
While ENSO is the dominant natural driver of Australia’s climate, a neutral period does not guarantee a benign climate. A neutral ENSO period indicates that the equatorial Pacific Ocean is not shifting the odds towards either a particularly wet or dry period, and hence other influences may come into play. Weather extremes can and do occur during neutral ENSO phases, though tend to be less widespread.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral, with climate models indicating that it will remain so until the end of the austral spring. The IOD typically has little influence on Australian climate during the period from December to April.
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