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An average summer on the way

By johnboy - 22 October 2013 10

The Bureau of Meteorology is giving notice there aren’t any El Nino shenanigans predicted for the coming summer:

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has remained neutral since mid-2012, with all atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO presently within neutral bounds. International climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest that the neutral ENSO-pattern will persist through the coming summer.

While ENSO is the dominant natural driver of Australia’s climate, a neutral period does not guarantee a benign climate. A neutral ENSO period indicates that the equatorial Pacific Ocean is not shifting the odds towards either a particularly wet or dry period, and hence other influences may come into play. Weather extremes can and do occur during neutral ENSO phases, though tend to be less widespread.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral, with climate models indicating that it will remain so until the end of the austral spring. The IOD typically has little influence on Australian climate during the period from December to April.

What’s Your opinion?


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10 Responses to
An average summer on the way
Robertson 12:25 pm 23 Oct 13

Roundhead89 said :

What? A press release from BOM which isn’t blaming climate change for the weather patterns?

They’re learning folks, they’re learning…

For that to be a truthful statement, you would have to demonstrate with examples that the BoM has previously blamed ENSO variations on climate change.

Good luck.

davo101 11:45 am 23 Oct 13

Roundhead89 said :

What? A press release from BOM which isn’t blaming climate change for the weather patterns?

They’re learning folks, they’re learning…

Here are the Bureau’s press releases going back to 1997. Bet you can’t find any that blame a particular weather event on climate change. Even the most obvious candidates don’t get a guernsey.

Jim Jones 11:38 am 23 Oct 13

Roundhead89 said :

What? A press release from BOM which isn’t blaming climate change for the weather patterns?

They’re learning folks, they’re learning…

But apparently you’re not

Roundhead89 11:21 am 23 Oct 13

What? A press release from BOM which isn’t blaming climate change for the weather patterns?

They’re learning folks, they’re learning…

Thumper 10:47 am 23 Oct 13

Stevian said :

Thumper said :

miz said :

2011 was my perfect year! Nature watered everything beautifully and it wasn’t too darn hot.

30 odd people were killed in Grantham in the floods. Brisbane was flooded. Goulburn and Queanbeyan were flooded.

Nope, that January is not one I care to remember.

People are dying tragically every day, think about that.

What an odd reply.

Stevian 10:36 am 23 Oct 13

Thumper said :

miz said :

2011 was my perfect year! Nature watered everything beautifully and it wasn’t too darn hot.

30 odd people were killed in Grantham in the floods. Brisbane was flooded. Goulburn and Queanbeyan were flooded.

Nope, that January is not one I care to remember.

People are dying tragically every day, think about that.

Thumper 9:59 am 23 Oct 13

miz said :

2011 was my perfect year! Nature watered everything beautifully and it wasn’t too darn hot.

30 odd people were killed in Grantham in the floods. Brisbane was flooded. Goulburn and Queanbeyan were flooded.

Nope, that January is not one I care to remember.

miz 9:41 am 23 Oct 13

2011 was my perfect year! Nature watered everything beautifully and it wasn’t too darn hot.

Thumper 8:59 am 23 Oct 13

As long as we get some rain now and then I’ll be happy…

Not too much though, don’t want a repeat of 2011.

davo101 8:25 am 23 Oct 13

An average summer on the way

Don’t go putting any money on that just yet.

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