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Hot summer on the way

By johnboy - 27 November 2013 2

The Bureau of Meteorology is giving notice that we can expect to have the fan running at night this summer:

The chances of the summer maximum temperature exceeding the long-term median maximum temperature are greater than 60% over eastern NSW, most of Tasmania and coastal areas of SA (see map above).

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2 Responses to
Hot summer on the way
Vindalu 5:09 pm 27 Nov 13

Bring it on, the tinnies are on ice and let the sweater puppies run free !

MERC600 4:15 pm 27 Nov 13

The Southern Oscillation Index has been in the minus territory for a little while now. This can mean higher temps. However you can never be sure as this explains…

“”The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is calculated from the monthly or seasonal fluctuations in the air pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin.

A strongly and consistently positive SOI pattern (e.g. consistently above about +6 over a two month period) is related to a high probability of above the long-term average (median) rainfall for many areas of Australia, especially areas of eastern Australia (including northern Tasmania) – La Niña.

Conversely, a ‘deep’ and consistently negative SOI pattern (less than about minus 6 over a two month period, with little change over that period) is related to a high probability of below median rainfall for many areas of Australia at certain times of the year – El Niño.

However, it is important to remember that the pattern of relationship between SOI and rainfall (and temperature) can vary depending on the particular season and region. Additionally, the change in SOI over a specified period can be as important in understanding relationships between SOI and rainfall as is the absolute value in SOI “”

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