6 October 2024

The gloves are off: Barr and Lee go toe-to-toe over economic credentials and costings

| Ian Bushnell
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Andrew Barr

Chief Minister Andrew Barr: where is the money coming from to pay for their commitments? Photos: Michelle Kroll.

The ACT election has erupted into open warfare over the major parties’ economic credibility, arguably the decisive issue of the campaign, as voters prepare to cast the first votes on Tuesday (8 October).

Chief Minister Andrew Barr has been sniping at the Canberra Liberals’ costings and fiscal policies all campaign, but with Opposition Leader Elizabeth Lee officially launching her bid to overturn 23 years of Labor ascendancy and releasing a business policy that cuts taxes and charges, he unleashed a full-throated attack on the party’s economic credentials.

Calling it a rehash of Alistair Coes’s failed Lower Taxes Better Services campaign in 2020, Mr Barr rubbished the Liberal plan as magic pudding economics and said they had a billion-dollar revenue hole at the heart of their plans.

He also accused the Liberals and the Greens of either delaying the submission of policies for costing by Treasury until it would be too late to assess them properly for voters, or of being incompetent.

READ ALSO Canberra Liberals pledge to build a multi-purpose sporting arena with swimming pool in Woden

This provoked a stinging reply from Ms Lee, who rejected Mr Barr’s “absurd” figures as the act of a desperate man and said he had form making simple accounting errors.

Earlier, Ms Lee had announced capping growth in commercial rates at the long-term Wage Price Index rate of 2.2 per cent for the next term of government, as well as reducing the payroll tax rate from 6.85 per cent to 5.45 per cent for wages up to $5 million.

Ms Lee has already committed to capping general rates increases at 2.2 per cent.

The business package also included a new deregulation framework, the scrapping of the City Centre Marketing Improvement Levy, a ‘Canberra created’ grants scheme to support buying local and a Business Continuity Guarantee that will support businesses impacted by avoidable delayed public works programs.

A tourism industry package promised to continue with the proposed new Lyric Theatre and bring back the Supercars Championship to the ACT, to be held at EPIC.

It also included a $1.5 million events attraction fund, $4 million worth of grants in matched funding for eligible wineries, breweries and agricultural businesses, an additional $5 million to improve and establish new outdoor tourism facilities in surrounding parks and bushland and an increase to the ACT’s destination marketing budget by an additional $4 million over the next two years.

Mr Barr said the Liberals would be forgoing around a billion dollars of revenue, and their spending commitments would now be in the multibillions of dollars.

“We’re back in Alastair Coe magic pudding economics world here, where revenue is going to be significantly reduced and expenditure significantly increased,” he said.

“So the obvious question is how are these promises going to be delivered? Who’s going to pay for them?”

Mr Barr said the budget position would necessarily have to deteriorate, services would need to be cut, and the wage rises of government employees put at risk.

He said the deadline for submitting policies to the Treasury was this Friday, but neither the Liberals nor Greens had submitted a single commitment.

“It really reaches a point that Treasury can’t provide detailed costings,” he said.

Elizabeth Lee

Opposition Leader Elizabeth Lee says Mr Barr has got his numbers wrong and the Liberals can meet its commitments and provide relief to households and businesses. Photo: Michelle Kroll.

Ms Lee, who has claimed revenue would actually increase, said the Liberals’ plans for accelerated land releases would generate more than $900 million in revenue, not including the revenue from ongoing rates from these land sales.

She also said there would be savings from not proceeding with light rail Stage 2B to Woden, for which about $90 million had been provisioned in the forward estimates and the entertainment pavilion, expected to cost $250 million.

“How the Treasurer of the ACT can come to the conclusion that reducing payroll tax from 6.85 per cent to 5.45 per cent for a bracket of $2 million to $5 million would cost the Territory over half a billion dollars shows he is either misleading the public or incompetent,” she said.

I am confident the policies we have released are sustainable and will provide real relief to households and businesses who have been slugged by Andrew Barr for years to pay for his mismanagement and waste.”

Ms Lee slammed Mr Barr as the worst Treasurer in the country who had not once delivered a surplus in 13 budgets.

“He’s clearly under significant pressure and feeling desperate, highlighted by his continuous mudslinging and negative fear campaign because he has run out of ideas and run out of energy,” she said.

“Canberrans expect and deserve a campaign on positive ideas for Canberra. Sadly, all they’ve received from Andrew Barr is a politically lazy, immature fear campaign that belongs in student politics.”

Mr Barr raised the spectre of service and job cuts to make up for revenue shortfalls.

“If they intend to implement the policies that they’ve announced in the form that they have, the only way to pay for that is by cuts across other areas of the budget,” he said.

“The only thing they have said on the public record is that they would commission a commission of audit.

“Where those have been done federally and in other states, that’s led to significant reductions in public sector employment and cuts to public services across the board.”

READ ALSO Should Canberra follow Luxembourg and make free public transport permanent?

Mr Barr defended his government’s spending over the years, saying it had delivered three new hospitals, community health facilities in Walk-in Centres, a dozen new schools, the Woden CIT, new bus depots, electric buses, and light rail.

“That’s just a snapshot of where the infrastructure investment has occurred,” he said.

“So you can track back over the last several budgets to see where we have borrowed and what we’ve invested in.”

Mr Barr said the current staged infrastructure program meant the Territory was at full capacity and he questioned where the Liberals would get the workforce to build a stadium, convention centre, Northside Hospital and a theatre, all starting presumably in their first term.

He said the Supercars race never stacked up financially, with the cost of fitting out EPIC at $10 million and any subsidy affecting funding of other tourism events such as Floriade.

The Canberra Liberals are expected to provide policies to Treasury for costings before the election.

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During the late nineties I was a bus driver. Back then we had a Tuggeranong, Woden and Belconnen depots. That means we had about 130 more busses than now, notably Palmerston and a small amount of Ngunnawal and no new west Belconnen, Denman Prospect and Molonglo suburbs were built. Additionally, the union/drivers negotiated with the Carnell Government (Liberal) on a new EBA. At that time, the new EBA had four weeks annual leave and two additional weeks of leisure leave. With an hour of overtime per day my take home pay was similar to an average APS6 yearly wage.

Fast forward numerous years under a Labor/Greens Government (meant to be blue collar friendly) the conditions have collapsed. Most drivers are either permanent part time or casual. The hourly rate in proportion to an ACT Government AS06 is much lower. Additionally, most drivers work over a twelve hour day, usually 3-4 hours at the start 4 hours off and then 3-4 hours. Action has a revolving employee loss door now, back then when I was a driver people would donate a kidney to get in, something is not right.

Buss frequency and reliability was on another plane compared to today.

Most of the ACTAPS will no doubt vote Labor/Greens with the mindset of job security. One would say that if Labor/Greens return (they probably will) be redundancies galore this time around.

I am no longer a driver or Government employee, but under the former Liberal Government a lot of people were better off.

My kids and their friends who have suffered long hours on the weekend service have stated they are voting anything other than Green or Labor, youth being their bread and butter in previous times.

How can anyone take Barr seriously ?
The Territory is broke , skint , because of him & his party’s terrible fiscal performance over the last 23 years , implementing projects that neither benefit it or grow it. No vision , no idea

I hope voters do what has to be done & give the ACT a chance to move forward , & this cannot be done with another Labor Govt.

Two of the most uninspiring leaders you’ve ever seen, we’re really blessed in the ACT.

Marc Tremblay7:40 pm 07 Oct 24

Andrew Barr is a patronising and defensive individual with no real vision for the ACT other than one which revolves around pursuing his own personal pet projects such as LGBTQ and trams which the Territory economy simply can’t afford. Long overdue that Barr and the communist Rattenbury greens have not gone. Hopefully they are never to be heard of again.

No mention of the millions paid to Labor speach writers for the CIT.
Labor has zero financial credentials, they are currently sandbagging the rate increases that we will all see next year, renters and owners will all pay more under Labor in 2025 (even if they are voted out). These costs are being hidden until after the election.

Jack,
seeing as you are in the know, can you link me to the submitted costings for Light Rail Stage 2B?

Obviously you would expect the single biggest project being proposed by the ALP is included if they had any idea of what they are doing and were committed to responsible and transparent governance?

Chewy again rambling on about Light rail and Stage 2B! Undermining those who support the project and who he disagrees with, snickering at their opinions!

All discussed and dissected previously chewy!

Yaaawn!!

Gregg Heldon2:01 pm 08 Oct 24

Jack, it’s a reasonable question. It’s reasonable because it hasn’t been answered yet. And because it hasn’t been answered, then Barr is being a hypocrite asking for the Liberals costings before the submission date. They still have a few days yet.
But you know all of that. And, once again, without a decent argument, you’re deflecting. Makes you a hypocrite too.
What are the costings for stage 2B? What is the cost for the extra 800 health care workers that we’re supposed to be getting? 800 people that should have happened years ago. What are the costings for any refurbishment of Bruce Stadium that the 7 feasibility studies on a stadium have given us? Will the cost of those 7 feasibility studies be included in those costings?

Nice Gregg, shot with both barrels. lets see the answers Jack, dont go off on your own little rant just answer the questions that Gregg has asked you. this is going to be interesting……

Jack,
You must have been on the drink again if you can’t read and understand an easy question on the provision of a cost estimate for a project you’ve described as:

“the most complex and difficult infrastructure project ever proposed in Canberra”

There’s one person rambling here and it’s in your constant excuses and hypocrisy, expecting an opposition party to provide more detail than the actual government. I don’t need to snicker at your opinions, I’m just embarrassed that this is the best the government supporters can dish up.

Although you are right in one regard, in that I’ve continually dissected your rabid ideological rants and found them lacking in detail or evidence to support any of your positions.

Which explains a large part of why we get the poor government we do, too many partisan ideologues who can’t think of not voting for their favourite major party.

If anyone lacks economic credibility it’s Barr. Really clutching at straws here mate. Utilities and land tax has gone through the roof. Infrastructure has been overlooked. You’ve forcibly taken.over Calvary. Your debt levels are through the roof and you want to spend billions on a tram that will go 10 clicks if that. You’re the last person to.lecture anyone on economic credibility.

When the Libs ditch ALL of their fundamentalist right wing psychos they might have a chance. I find the criticism of Labor humorous. Ask the big question. Why do they keep winning elections if they are so bad? Zedsdead!

They don’t keep winning elections. That’s why they have to bow to the greens. They haven’t been able to govern in their own right for ages. Labor only got 10 of 25 seats last time.

We will have much more money for essentials and better services (including long neglected maintenance of basic council infrastructure) if we ditch the tram (19th century transport) along with Labor & the Greens. Honestly, promising better hard rubbish collection that mimics that available for decades elsewhere just shows how far we’ve fallen behind.

We could even have minibuses instead of giant ones for the less used bus routes, as has been done in other places (until the demand increases due to frequency & reliability through the night and weekends). Then we’d all have safer and better nightlife in Canberra.

We might even have reasonable rates and rentals!

Marc Tremblay7:36 pm 07 Oct 24

Psycho you need to be quiet as you’re far too sensible for the current state of the ACT

What an absolute joke. Australia’s only coalition ALP/ Communist Greens government and with such a terrible economic record of mispends and debt accusing any opposition party of economic unreliability. Pot, kettle black Barr. Thing is it’s only the ACT that would re-elect such a hopeless bunch of ideological misfits and cretins. You get what you vote for couldn’t be be appropriate here.

Marc Tremblay7:35 pm 07 Oct 24

Well said.

Alex Stephens1:37 pm 08 Oct 24

In the parallel universe that is Canberra, the majority of the Ken Behrens have never had to do a hard days work being employed in govt entities of sum sort, where they become anethesised to the harsh realities of life, develop a fear of risk and a need to maintain a non-challenging environment where some may believe in their own BS. With ample free time and little need to recover from the strenuous ordeal of physical labour, they can use their superior intellect, to support ideological pursuits that they believe will lead them to nirvana, perhaps.

Due to the election Labor has hidden a good number of cost blow outs from us.
Wait until 2025 and check your rates notice, only then will the truth come out!

Marc Tremblay7:41 pm 07 Oct 24

Yep correct.

When somebody becomes incompetent at their job, they should just step aside. Time to go Mr. Barr

HiddenDragon9:58 pm 06 Oct 24

“Mr Barr defended his government’s spending over the years, saying it had delivered three new hospitals, community health facilities in Walk-in Centres, a dozen new schools, the Woden CIT, new bus depots, electric buses, and light rail.”

Even at the inflated prices we pay to get things done in Canberra, that list does not justify the more than $10bn by which ACT government financial liabilities have grown over the same period.

The reality is that the Barr government has set the ACT on a fiscally unsustainable path, which means that it struggles to pay for its regular functions (not just for new infrastructure) without going further into debt – and in spite of what are now painfully high levels of annual rates for many Canberra households.

That unpalatable truth means that there are questions about the affordability of the Liberals’ promises (just as there are about Labor and Greens’ promises) but at least the Liberals have had the integrity to admit that their promises may require re-prioritisation of spending (via a commission of audit) rather than pretending that the “all of the above” approach of the Labor/Green government can go on forever.

Three new hospitals? I count one (UC training hospital) and a refurb. Where are the other two?

All this shrinkflation shrinktrickery from the Canberra Liberals is doing my head in!

Bring on the election!

Let’s do a quick stack up of Liberal vs Labor spending promises. There are a lot of similarities in the medium term. Both will build the new hospital, both will replace the convention centre, both will build a stadium, albeit in different locations and so on. The big difference is the Libs won’t build stage 2 of the tram, and they’ve also said they won’t build the pavilion, $250m. If we accept Barr’s assertion that the Libs tax cuts will cost $1b over time, we should also accept Lee’s assertion of an extra $900m of revenue from accelerated land sales. The net position is that Labor is promising to spend $150m plus the cost of stage 2B more than the Libs.

Despite being asked for years to put an estimated price tag on stage 2B, the government has refused to do so. That leaves us punters to look at comparisons. The best one with estimated costings is the next Gold Coast leg. The Guardian, a left wing online news site, discussed the possible costs of that stage in May this year. The mid range cost scaled back for our somewhat shorter route comes to about $3.5b, but they don’t have to put a reinforced bridge over a lake. The shorter road bridge over the Molonglo is $225m, so I’ve guessed $500m for a light rail bridge over LBG.

Even if you discount the Libs land sales revenue and drop a billion from stage 2B, it’s very clear that Barr is the one making reckless spending promises, and all because of his adherence to stage 2B. Sure he likes to say the feds will come to the LR party, but if they’re willing to do that, a fair federal government would put the same amount of funding into other projects too.

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