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And the ACT election winner is …

Greg Cornwell 11 October 2016 54

Liberals leader Jeremy Hanson (right) with Liberals' campaign director Daniel Clode.

With four days till the Assembly election it is time to declare the result as I see it of what has been a high promising financial campaign by both sides.  My political leanings are known so it is no surprise I predict a Liberal win, however the reasons call for justification.

The extent of financial commitments mentioned above are matters of concern.  Like most people I have lost track of the total amounts promised by each Party and worry it may not be possible to meet the target in government.  However the Liberals’ shopping list appears more directed at basic community needs: health, education, roads for example.

Labor’s two millstones are the tram and rising rates, closely followed by unpopular planning proposals.  The Liberals have the edge on the tram and the reasonable fear it will cost us much more money than budgeted in the future.  Savings from canning the tram also will fund other initiatives as well as saving money.  Curbing rate rises is another matter and there is no proposal for how it will be done.

Planning proposals look set for reconsideration, however the Opposition has not spelled out its policy and, because the issue is not widespread, the voting effect is localised.

Both parties wish to check the financial clout of developers, however neither has committed to curbing their overall influence on Canberra’s development which, under various guises, could be seen as pernicious.

There are many other smaller important issues being addressed however one factor, again about even, is the participants announcing the new policies.  These are largely restricted to the leaders and deputies as if nobody else can be relied upon.  Perhaps this reflects a clear party choice between an experienced but tired government and an inexperienced but keen opposition. One other unfortunate factor is that Labor does not have a sitting MLA in the seat of Murrumbidgee (Jeremy Hanson’s bailiwick).

No doubt the Greens will retain their core vote but it won’t improve.  Their campaign has been lacklustre, policies announced hardly of importance to mainstream voters, the Party is closely identified with the unpopular tram and their sitting MLA has had bad personal publicity.

It is difficult to see other candidates doing more than adding to major parties’ quotas as they are eliminated.  Most are single issue – or give that impression – and with the exception of the anti-casino poker machine group Canberra Community Voters with club membership support, struggle to be seen or heard.

Home experience has seen one ALP doorknock and two brochures, two Green, one independent and several Liberal brochures, which even allowing for targeting specific suburbs indicates most independents and smaller groups lack volunteer workers.

Finally there is a mood for change across the territory.  The government has been in too long and its projects: the tram, new developments and rates inspire cost concerns.  The Liberals are untried and not entirely trusted to look after the average Canberran, however they deserve a go, there isn’t anyone else.

Pictured above are Liberals leader Jeremy Hanson (right) with Liberals’ campaign director Daniel Clode at the party’s campaign launch. Photo: Charlotte Harper


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54 Responses to And the ACT election winner is …
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dungfungus dungfungus 8:36 am 17 Oct 16

JC said :

dungfungus said :

gooterz said :

ACT, where you can rig an election by buying our your main opposition and impersonate medicare and still win without consequence.

I wonder how much of the canvasing tactic will influence the quotas. Votes for libs are based on the party vs Labor went door to door. Are these now personal votes that will flow to other parties or party ones?

Very few of all the candidates have received 1 quota.

I am not convinced that the voting system is bullet proof.

For a start, no proof of identity is required so the first person who votes in the name of the elector gets the voting choice of that person, not necessarily the real elector who may try and vote later in the day but will not be able to because as soon as one elector registers further attempts to vote in the name of that elector are blocked, electronically (as is the explanation by the Electoral Commission).

Given that one cannot even get into a club without a membership card or photo-idendity proof, it is contemptuous that the worth of ones’s franchise to to vote is valued less than visiting a club.

Even if a voting fraud is confirmed, the first vote cast will be the one that is counted.

This opens the system to abuse such as voting in the names of recently deceases electors or electors who may be unable to vote or are unwilling to vote.

Additionally, the votes are subject to scanning (not a perfect science) and computer compilation. These functions can be manipulated (who could forget the “doctoring” of ED patient records at TCH?).

And parties can lie with impunity during the campaigning period.

Does anyone else care about it? I guess not.

Just imagine how much vote rigging needs to go on using the method you raised to actually make a difference. Besides do you have any evidence if it ever being an issue anywhere in Australia let alone here. Though do agree with the basic sentiment it is odd one does not have to show ID to vote.

As for lies during campaigns why are you so worried about it now? You have been happy to go along with, and peddle the liebral mantra which contains many lies on here so why the change of heart? Or is it a case you believe the fiberals are as pure as the driven snow and only them dastly union backed laborietes lie?

I don’t have to imagine how much vote rigging is needed to swing an election, it is all explained here http://www.samuelgriffith.org.au/papers/html/volume17/v17chap8.html

In fact, branch stacking is a tried and proven method of vote rigging and we all know which side of politics pioneered that scam.

I am happy that you agree that photographic ID is needed to vote and I believe most Australians want that as well. It appears politicians don’t agree so we should be asking “why?”

If ID was required most of the rorts that are mentioned in the link would all be eliminated.

Regarding your usual, colourful criticism of the Liberals, none of their alleged scare campaigning went near Labor’s tried and proven fraudulent use of the Medicare logo on the facsimile scare card they used.

Had Medicare been a private company with the logo registered as a trade mark, ACT Labor would have ceased to exist by the following day. All their assets would have been seized and their executive arrested.

All these things are tactics in a strategy to win elections by “whatever it takes” (as Richo once said). In isolation, one tactic won’t make a difference but combined they do.

Chris Mordd Richards Chris Mordd Richards 1:28 am 17 Oct 16

To all who replied saying I was wrong that no matter what Libs would not form Government… I will accept your mea-culpas now, ta.

JC JC 12:15 am 17 Oct 16

dungfungus said :

gooterz said :

ACT, where you can rig an election by buying our your main opposition and impersonate medicare and still win without consequence.

I wonder how much of the canvasing tactic will influence the quotas. Votes for libs are based on the party vs Labor went door to door. Are these now personal votes that will flow to other parties or party ones?

Very few of all the candidates have received 1 quota.

I am not convinced that the voting system is bullet proof.

For a start, no proof of identity is required so the first person who votes in the name of the elector gets the voting choice of that person, not necessarily the real elector who may try and vote later in the day but will not be able to because as soon as one elector registers further attempts to vote in the name of that elector are blocked, electronically (as is the explanation by the Electoral Commission).

Given that one cannot even get into a club without a membership card or photo-idendity proof, it is contemptuous that the worth of ones’s franchise to to vote is valued less than visiting a club.

Even if a voting fraud is confirmed, the first vote cast will be the one that is counted.

This opens the system to abuse such as voting in the names of recently deceases electors or electors who may be unable to vote or are unwilling to vote.

Additionally, the votes are subject to scanning (not a perfect science) and computer compilation. These functions can be manipulated (who could forget the “doctoring” of ED patient records at TCH?).

And parties can lie with impunity during the campaigning period.

Does anyone else care about it? I guess not.

Just imagine how much vote rigging needs to go on using the method you raised to actually make a difference. Besides do you have any evidence if it ever being an issue anywhere in Australia let alone here. Though do agree with the basic sentiment it is odd one does not have to show ID to vote.

As for lies during campaigns why are you so worried about it now? You have been happy to go along with, and peddle the liebral mantra which contains many lies on here so why the change of heart? Or is it a case you believe the fiberals are as pure as the driven snow and only them dastly union backed laborietes lie?

dungfungus dungfungus 7:55 pm 16 Oct 16

gooterz said :

ACT, where you can rig an election by buying our your main opposition and impersonate medicare and still win without consequence.

I wonder how much of the canvasing tactic will influence the quotas. Votes for libs are based on the party vs Labor went door to door. Are these now personal votes that will flow to other parties or party ones?

Very few of all the candidates have received 1 quota.

I am not convinced that the voting system is bullet proof.

For a start, no proof of identity is required so the first person who votes in the name of the elector gets the voting choice of that person, not necessarily the real elector who may try and vote later in the day but will not be able to because as soon as one elector registers further attempts to vote in the name of that elector are blocked, electronically (as is the explanation by the Electoral Commission).

Given that one cannot even get into a club without a membership card or photo-idendity proof, it is contemptuous that the worth of ones’s franchise to to vote is valued less than visiting a club.

Even if a voting fraud is confirmed, the first vote cast will be the one that is counted.

This opens the system to abuse such as voting in the names of recently deceases electors or electors who may be unable to vote or are unwilling to vote.

Additionally, the votes are subject to scanning (not a perfect science) and computer compilation. These functions can be manipulated (who could forget the “doctoring” of ED patient records at TCH?).

And parties can lie with impunity during the campaigning period.

Does anyone else care about it? I guess not.

A Nonny Mouse A Nonny Mouse 5:54 pm 16 Oct 16

Well, that worked out well.

gooterz gooterz 12:13 pm 16 Oct 16

ACT, where you can rig an election by buying our your main opposition and impersonate medicare and still win without consequence.

I wonder how much of the canvasing tactic will influence the quotas. Votes for libs are based on the party vs Labor went door to door. Are these now personal votes that will flow to other parties or party ones?

Very few of all the candidates have recieved 1 quota.

No_Nose No_Nose 11:32 am 16 Oct 16

pink little birdie said :

Turns out you need actual alternative policies and vision to be elected.

The Canberra sheep would elect a dead cat if it ran on the Labor/Greens ticket. Policies have nothing to do with it.

pink little birdie pink little birdie 10:21 pm 15 Oct 16

Mordd / Chris Richards said :

What a load of trollop. Lacking in substance, repeating the same old tired arguments. The only thing I am sure of at this point is not how many seats will go to who, but that no matter what, the Liberals will NOT be forming government, not a hope in hell.

They offer little positive vision for Canberra, a long list of stuff they oppose, and want to waste over $300m by scrapping a construction project already committed to, which will make it a lot more difficult next time they need a private partner for a project of their own as no-one will want to sign with a Government that ripped up a perfectly legal and binding contract when they got into power just because they could.

Maybe if the Liberals ceased the scare campaign of lies, stopped censoring voters discussion online and other candidates messages on the road side and ran a fair campaign of their own the Libs might stand a chance. However that is not the case, and the Libs are going to find themselves in opposition still for many years to come.

Turns out you need actual alternative policies and vision to be elected.

dungfungus dungfungus 11:24 am 14 Oct 16

chewy14 said :

So we’ve got a choice between a party that is recklessly wasting taxpayers money on a poorly thought out and ill-timed infrastructure project

vs

A party who is going to stop the best taxation reform enacted in the territory with the 20 year plan to remove stamp duty and replace it with a quasi land tax.

Heads the idiots win and tails the peanuts.

There is a third choice and that is “informal”.

chewy14 chewy14 8:55 am 14 Oct 16

So we’ve got a choice between a party that is recklessly wasting taxpayers money on a poorly thought out and ill-timed infrastructure project

vs

A party who is going to stop the best taxation reform enacted in the territory with the 20 year plan to remove stamp duty and replace it with a quasi land tax.

Heads the idiots win and tails the peanuts.

rommeldog56 rommeldog56 9:21 pm 13 Oct 16

A Nonny Mouse said :

Even if cost-benefit in money terms were just neutral, so what? I like light rail. What is the return on investment for a park or a playground?

That says it all really………

chewy14 chewy14 7:31 pm 13 Oct 16

JC said :

rommeldog56 said :

JC said :

pink little birdie said :

It also doesn’t help that they don’t release their policy costings until a couple of days out from the elections.

Speaking of which have they done that yet?

No. Act Labor has not even released costings of tram stage 2 from Civic to Woden nor have the submitted their m$650+ costing for their policy upgrade Canberra Hospital.

Source : 2CC, late yesterday.

$24,000,000. That is the figure. Bit hard to give a full cost on something, when you haven’t done the basics of planning the route and actually coming up with the cost. That is what the $24m is for, and is what the government have committed to. But yeah you will spin that into some attack too.

Bit hard to come up with the cost of the project but not too hard to commit to signing the contracts to build it in the next term of government.

We’re you actually trying to make the government look worse or was it an accident?

A Nonny Mouse A Nonny Mouse 6:45 pm 13 Oct 16

JC said :

Robz said :

Do you see where I’m heading Greg. Light rail is actually costing the ACT very little and in fact when you factor the income received due to the LR development is actually costing us pretty well donut.

In actual fact with a cost benefit of 1:1.05 it is buying us a donut, so not costing in overall terms.

Even if cost-benefit in money terms were just neutral, so what? I like light rail. What is the return on investment for a park or a playground?

dungfungus dungfungus 4:01 pm 13 Oct 16

I see that ACT Labor have been served with a cease and desist notice over the phony Medicare card they have been distributing.

They have apologised.

I don’t know which is the phoniest, the card or the apology.

They should be prosecuted and the election cancelled.

rommeldog56 rommeldog56 3:06 pm 13 Oct 16

JC said :

$24,000,000. That is the figure. Bit hard to give a full cost on something, when you haven’t done the basics of planning the route and actually coming up with the cost. That is what the $24m is for, and is what the government have committed to. But yeah you will spin that into some attack too.

Then why are ACT Labor saying that they will sign contract before the 2020 election if they haven’t done “the basics of planning the route”. Its an uncosted and unfunded election promise fro ACT Labor. A blank cheque from ACT Ratepayers if ACT Labor/Greens is re elected. No spin. Just fact.

JC JC 12:23 pm 13 Oct 16

rommeldog56 said :

JC said :

pink little birdie said :

It also doesn’t help that they don’t release their policy costings until a couple of days out from the elections.

Speaking of which have they done that yet?

No. Act Labor has not even released costings of tram stage 2 from Civic to Woden nor have the submitted their m$650+ costing for their policy upgrade Canberra Hospital.

Source : 2CC, late yesterday.

$24,000,000. That is the figure. Bit hard to give a full cost on something, when you haven’t done the basics of planning the route and actually coming up with the cost. That is what the $24m is for, and is what the government have committed to. But yeah you will spin that into some attack too.

dungfungus dungfungus 10:44 am 13 Oct 16

The left-leaning Huffington Post gives it’s assessment of Labor’s chances in the election.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2016/10/12/the-political-fight-for-australias-cool-little-capital/

A report on the Liberals’ outlook will be published tomorrow.

watto23 watto23 10:25 am 13 Oct 16

Robert of Braddon said :

This tired and arrogant government needs to go. This tram will put us in debt for years to come and for what — something that could be accomplished by a dozen buses at a fraction of the cost. It’s the dumbest idea.

I didn’t like Zed but Jeremy Hanson seems sensible, moderate and stable. He’ll have my vote on Saturday.

I’m not against changing the government, I just wish the liberals would actually stop spreading misinformation about things purely to win an election. Chances are they’ll last 4 years and be voted out again as they have no policy that genuinely will improves the lives of Canberrans. Its still a mostly say No to anything Labor does campaign.

Buses will not do what light rail does in terms of developing a medium/high density housing corridor. When I think about it when I travel, I always look for a place to stay near light rail/trams/subway stations, because its just easier to get around using them. People will buy a property and pay more if its a short walk to a rail based transit network. so your opinion of a few dozen buses seems to be based only on purely moving people and not on all the other things that change.

If liberals get in, I hope people don’t complain about the following things:
Car parking in the city
Costs of car parking
Traffic congestion
costs of roads
Costs of housing
medium density residential in the suburbs.

All these things are affected positively and in the liberals eyes are probably glazed over in their own CBA, but looked on favourably by many others in this City.

What is their actual plan for a growing population. Where are they going to live? How are they going to get to work? Would they ever agree to lightrail? I mean Zed wants the Libs to build across the river in tuggeranong ruining the recreational land there that many residents currently enjoy and just put more people further from major commercial centres. By all means I want Tuggeranong and Erindale fixed up, but no one seems focussed on that, all they care about is big things and promises to win the election, rather than focussing on what actually needs to be done and suggesting a viable solution.

MsJennifer MsJennifer 10:13 am 13 Oct 16

I don’t share your view as liberals being the winner at the coming election. Mr Hanson certainly was not the winner of the debate last night. He confirmed his arrogance and rudeness in the way he continually spoke over top of Mr Barr. I met Mr Hanson a few weeks ago at a community event and while he was happy to pose for photos, he showed a lack of interest in the event itself. His staffer didn’t even fein interest.
I am disappointed he would take this approach in the debate. You state that the the liberal government has intention to put money into education. Then why has GONSKI been abandon? I do not understand govenments that seem intent on wasting money by cutting programs that are already underway. Not all programs are going to benefit EVERYONE! I no longer have kids at school….there still needs to be money put into education. I may not use light rail…does mean it would not been good for others…not everyone uses the buses or cycle paths…should we stop those too?

pink little birdie pink little birdie 9:54 am 13 Oct 16

rommeldog56 said :

JC said :

pink little birdie said :

It also doesn’t help that they don’t release their policy costings until a couple of days out from the elections.

Speaking of which have they done that yet?

No. Act Labor has not even released costings of tram stage 2 from Civic to Woden nor have the submitted their m$650+ costing for their policy upgrade Canberra Hospital.

Source : 2CC, late yesterday.

They submitted a plan to get the costings for the tram to Woden… $25 million for a scoping study.

According to the Canberra times both have submitted costings now

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